A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, the Labour Party and Hackney - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Council by-elections

There were four by-elections yesterday:

Plaistow Ward, Chichester DC. Con hold. Con 455 (52.7%, -8.3), LD 408 (47.3%, +20.6). Swing of 14.5% from Con to LD since 2011.

Goresbrook Ward, LB Barking & Dagenham. Lab hold. Lab 1113 (57.8%, +14.2), BNP 593 (30.8%, +3.5),  UKIP 91 (4.7%, +4.7), Con 81 (4.2%, -8.9), LD 48 (2.5%, -6.8). Swing of 5.4% from BNP to Lab since 2010.

Watlington Division, Oxfordshire CC. Con hold. Con 865 (62.2%, -6.6), LD 259 (18.6%, +3.7), Lab 157 (11.3%, +6.7), UKIP 110 (7.9%, +7.9). Swing of 5.2% from Con to LD since 2009.

Spitalfields & Banglatown Ward, LB Tower Hamlets. Ind gain from Lab. Ind 1030 (44.9%, -0.5), Lab 987 (43%, +5.3), Con 140 (6.1%, -3.1), Green 99 (4.3%, +0.8), LD 39 (1.7%, -0.5). Swing of 2.9% from Ind/Respect to Lab since Dec 2010 by-election. I have compared the Independent vote share with that of Respect in 2010 as the local political situation suggests this is a sensible basis for comparison. The winner was a supporter of Independent Mayor Lutfur Rahman.




Columns

In case you missed them, my columns this week looked at

- Party funding reform and the union levy: http://labourlist.org/2012/04/why-labour-should-stick-with-the-opt-out-for-union-members/

- The rise of UKIP: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/04/19/could-ukip-help-labour/

Friday, April 13, 2012

Council by-elections

There have been 4 this week (the Finchley one was on Wednesday):

East Finchley Ward, LB Barnet. Lab hold. Lab 2117 (67.8%, +24.7), Con 543 (17.4%, -8.5), LD 461 (14.8%, -7.7). Swing of 16.6% from Con to Lab since 2010.

Lowdham Ward, Newark & Sherwood DC. Con hold. Con 787 (51.5%), LD 534 (34.9%), Lab 117 (7.7%), Ind 91 (6%). New boundaries so no swing calculation.

Hurworth Ward, Darlington UA. LD hold. LD 474 (43.7%, -12.9), Con 436 (40.2%, +7.9), Lab 144 (13.3%, +2.1), UKIP 31 (2.9%, +2.9). Swing of 10.4% from LD to Con since 2011.

Harrowgate Hill Ward, Darlington UA. Con  gain from Lab. Con 694 (43.8%, +3.2), Lab 607 (38.3%, -21.1), LD 142 (9%, +9), UKIP 95 (6%, +6), England First 47 (3%, +3). Swing of 12.2% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Columns

My columns this week:

On Labourlist about 1992: http://labourlist.org/2012/04/i-am-still-haunted-by-the-ghosts-of-1992/

And on Progress about this May's elections: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/04/11/no-no-go-areas/

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Progress Column

My Progress column this week is about Bradford West:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/04/05/what-doesnt-kill-you/

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Labourlist column

My Labourlist column previews this May's elections: http://labourlist.org/2012/04/may-elections-ready-reckoner/

Monday, April 02, 2012

NEC Nominations

The nominations phase for the NEC elections seems to have been going on forever. In fact it has been three months.

Nominations closed on Friday and the final figures for candidates validly nominated are:

Ann Black 333 CLPs (Grassroots Alliance - GRA)
Christine Shawcroft 203 (GRA)
Ken Livingstone 195 (GRA)
Ellie Reeves 189 (Labour First/Progress - LFP)
Johanna Baxter 172 (Independent - IND)
Luke Akehurst 160 (LFP)
Peter Willsman 149 (GRA)
Peter Wheeler 147 (LFP)
Kate Osamor 103 (GRA)
Darren Williams 84 (GRA)
Joanne Milligan 76 (LFP)
Ruth Smeeth 71 (LFP)
Florence Nosegbe 69 (LFP)
Gary Heather 49 (GRA)
Lewis Atkinson 39 (IND)
Shaukat Ali 20 (IND)
Rajwant Sidhu 7 (IND)
Darrell Goodliffe 5 (IND)
Rob Carr 4 (IND)
Lynda Rice 4 (IND)

The OMOV ballot is likely to run from 25th May to 13th June. Labour members can each cast up to six votes. The six candidates with the most OMOV votes will be elected.

Another way to look at it is the percentage of last time's total nominations that each of us has already received (e.g. Ann Black 333/275×100).

This is a crude measure of the change in popularity of candidates since 2010 relative to each other:

Johanna Baxter 264.6%
Luke Akehurst 195.1%
Christine Shawcroft 126.9%
Ann Black 121.1%
Pete Wheeler 111.4%
Pete Willsman 108.7%
Ellie Reeves 103.8%
Ken Livingstone 83.0%

I'm delighted to have been nominated by almost twice as many CLPs as last time in 2010.
It's quite astonishing that so many CLPs have nominated in a year when there isn't a leadership election at the same time, as there was in 2010 (all except one of the 8 leading candidates has been nominated by more CLPs than last time). I think this is probably down to the higher profile of activity across the six incumbents driving awareness of the role and the contest.

It looks all to play for - any two of us in the nomination list places 5-8 inclusive could take the bottom two places in the 6 to be elected, or one of the lower ranked candidates at nomination stage might jump up the rankings at OMOV as I did in 2010 when I was 8th at  nomination stage but finished 6th.

 
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