ICM -
Con 37% (down 1)
Lab 33% (up 4)
LD 21% (down 2)
a) ICM are seen by other pollsters as the "gold standard" for accuracy
b) this percentage share would make Labour the largest party in the Commons by about a 25 seat margin
c) traditionally there's about a 5% swing back to the government during most UK General Election campaigns - it only need a 2% swing for Labour to be level with the Tories and back on the score we got in 2005
Cheers, mate!
ReplyDeleteLet's send Cameron back to the obscurity from whence he came. Roll on 6th May! Labour to win!
traditionally there is a swing away from Labour during a campaign. Political Betting had a properly sourced article on this http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/
ReplyDeleteI'm still pessimistic.
ReplyDeleteThat Gene Hunt campaign poster is a disastrous misjudgment isn't it? People like Gene Hunt - it's idiotic to compare him to Cameron
no longer quoting YouGov...? The average poll lead for the Tories has been pretty consistent at 6-ish but risen slightly in the last week.
ReplyDeleteTories say they will stand up for society's dispossessed
ReplyDeletehttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-say-they-will-stand-up-for-societys-dispossessed-470217.html
I did a you gov survey today.
ReplyDelete