A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Council by-elections

Some spectacularly varied council by-election results last night. Landslide victories for Labour in two previously Lab vs LD marginal wards in Islington, the LDs however proving they are very much alive and kicking in non-metropolitan areas with gains from Labour in Hertfordshire and the Tories in Dorset, and a shock UKIP gain in Havering on the London/Essex border. The one constant was the dreadful performance of the Tories, as per last week.

Adeyfield West Ward, Dacorum DC. LD gain from Lab. LD 363 (32.6%, +18.1), Lab 278 (25%, -17.5), Con 229 (20.6%, -22.4), UKIP 193 (17.3%, +17.3), Eng Dem 51 (4.6%, +4.6). Swing of 17.8% from Lab to LD since 2011.

Gooshays Ward, LB Havering. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 831 (39%, +24.6), Lab 569 (26.7%, -1.8), Con 280 (13.1%, -12.6), Harrold Hill Res Assoc 227 (10.6%, +1.2), BNP 202 (9.5%, -12.5), Res Assoc of London 24 (1.1%, +1.1). Swing of 13.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2010. This ward elected 2 Tory and 1 Lab cllrs in 2010.

Junction Ward, LB Islington. Lab gain from LD. Lab 1343 (61.9%, +21.5), Green 381 (17.6%, +5.3), LD 276 (12.7%, -25), Con 120 (5.5%, -4.1), BNP 31 (1.4%, +1.4), SPGB 18 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 8.1% from Green to Lab since 2010. This ward elected 2 LD and 1 Lab cllrs in 2010.

St George’s Ward, LB Islington. Lab hold. Lab 1698 (71.3%, +38.5), LD 371 (15.6%, -27.9), Green 206 (8.6%, -5.5), Con 87 (3.7%, -6), BNP 20 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 33.2% from LD to Lab since 2010. The LDs held two of three seats in this ward in 2010.

Lodbourne, Ward, North Dorset DC. LD gain from Con. LD 187 (47.9%, +0.1), Con 134 (34.4%, -17.8), Lab 69 (17.7%, +17.7). Swing of 9% from Con to LD since 2011.

The Stours Ward, North Dorset DC. Con hold. Con 207 (80.2%, +11.8), Lab 51 (19.8%, +19.8). Swing of 4% from Con to Lab since 2011.


Anonymous Charlie Mansell said...

I get the impression more effort was put in to wipe out the Lib Dems in Islington http://www.islingtontribune.com/news/2013/mar/polls-triumphs-raise-hopes-2014-labour-landslide compared to taking on UKIP in the suburbs

11:51 am, March 22, 2013

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lib Dems in by-elections can be difficult to measure against previous performances. In a seat where they were the sitting party and they lose convincingly it is a sign of their decline but them gaining seats is not necessarily the opposite. If they did not previously target the seat it would not be difficult for them to take a seat in such a low turnout area even with their national decline.

1:11 pm, March 22, 2013

Anonymous Andrea said...

Very interesting night.

Very good Labour results in Islington. However, concerning results in Dacorum (is the post 2005 decline in Hemel Hempstead terminal?) and Havering (voters switching away from Con but bypassing Labour)

As you said, Con had bad results everywhere.

LD a mixed patch. Very good in Doerset and Dacorum, disastrous in Islington (like Camden last week)

3:36 pm, March 22, 2013

Blogger johnpaul said...

Charlie is right, regarding the campaign to wipe out theLibs, rather than in the suburbs

3:31 am, March 25, 2013

Blogger Roger McCarthy said...

If anyone's interested have tabulated the data from the 31 local elections since Jan 1st at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArM9tEwN6qsJdGpsbGdwamdzQ2VhaU9tdkQxUXpBYXc&usp=sharing and am planning on updating it weekly.

Most obvious take-out is how well UKIP are doing at the Tories expense and that outside of London (where they do much worse as previous elections were at a high point for them in 2010) the Lib Dems are not dead at all

4:27 pm, March 25, 2013

Blogger Roger McCarthy said...

Also note the Havering ward had a strong 22.1% BNP vote in 2010 over half of which seems to have gone to UKIP at the by-election.

4:30 pm, March 25, 2013

Anonymous Anonymous said...

BNP won Gooshays with 38% of the vote in 2008. But even funnier is the 0.8% in Islington.

I do find the success of UKIP to be worrying though.

5:25 pm, March 25, 2013


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