Council By-elections
Last night's council by-election results seem to be in line with the opinion polls - very tightly competitive between Labour and Tory:
Cumbria, Penrith E division - LD hold
Great Yarmouth, Nelson Ward - Lab hold by 70 votes over an Independent who the Tories stood aside for
Harlow, Todbrook Ward - Con gain from Lab by 15 votes (with Respect unhelpfully taking 102 votes) compared to a Lab majority of 24 in May
Harlow, Little Parndon & Hare Street Ward - Lab hold by 196 votes over Con (up from majority of 184 in May) - the Tories had hoped to gain this ward as well as Todbrook
North Devon, Witheridge Ward - Con hold
Penwith, Gwinear Ward - Con hold
Sefton, Manor Ward - Con gain from Lab (adding to the other 2 seats in the ward they had already picked up)
Wrexham, Stanstey Ward - Lab gain from LD, overturning majority of 231
Waltham Abbey TC - Honey Lane Ward - Tories narrowly hold off BNP by 18 votes
posted by Luke Akehurst at 7:59 am
8 Comments:
"Lab hold by 70 votes over an Independent who the Tories stood aside for"
The Indy was the son of the deceased Labour councillor.
I think Sefton Central is left without Labour councillors and it's a 10%+ majority seat...is it just a seat with lots of marginal wards (and so when the tide turns against you, you lose everything) or is the CLP a bit ineffective?
9:47 pm, October 26, 2007
Sefton Central...hmmmm
Well, I live in a ward which has recently been removed from the constituency.
The last three weeks has seen the local rag full of stories about a former councillor for Manor ward up before the court for benefit fraud.
But Labour have rarely held any local council wards there. Manor, yes, but even that ward has its strong Tory areas. The two Formby wards, always Tory except two isolated Labour wins. The three Maghull/Aintree wards, LD, and Blundellsands, Tory.
Merseyside often votes differently in national and local elections, but these boundary proposals came from the local Tories, even though they split Crosby in two and there was a much less disruptive alternative available (moving Maghull/Aintree into Bootle and leaving Crosby intact)
On the face of it, though, local results would never give any sort of Labour lead, ever!
11:09 pm, October 26, 2007
Thanks Merseymike.
Do you think that in the long term can Labour weak presence at local level make things more difficult for Labour or not neccesserly?
10:20 am, October 27, 2007
Not holding the council is usually a bonus in a marginal, but the impact of byelections is very hard to work out, and seems to depend more on local circumstances. The reasons for the byelections are often more important. This Sefton seat is a case in point, as you explained.
Although this was a bad night for Mr Akehurst's lot, I don't feel you can read an awful lot into it. It's when the Tories and Liberals start winning from third like Labour were doing in the mid nineties that you lot will need to panic.
It is intersting though, that Luke's analysis fails to point out that the Lib Dems increased their majority by nearly 14% in Penrith, and Labour failed to field a candidate, and that the Penwith one was only a Con hold as the Lib Dems didn't bother fielding a candidate as the seat is up again in May.
4:50 pm, October 27, 2007
Andrea: Merseyside has odd voting patterns and there are seats where on the face of it, Labour are nowhere , but seem to win nationally. Wirral West, the old Crosby seat, and Liverpool Wavertree the obvious examples
Personally, I don't think Sefton Central is winnable for Labour. The more Labour half of Crosby has gone into Bootle, the other Labour bit was in Manor Ward.
1:00 am, October 28, 2007
Lord London Fields Lido,
I tend not to pass much comment on the Penriths and Penwiths as the interesting ones are the ones which are Lab vs Con fights in marginal parliamentary seats. This week those were the 2 Harlow ones - which were a score draw in the second most marginal seat in the country, and the Sefton one, which was a poor result but other commenters have explained the local circumstances.
11:41 pm, October 28, 2007
Sorry should have added that Great Yarmouth is also a marginal parliamentary seat.
7:40 am, October 29, 2007
"that Great Yarmouth is also a marginal parliamentary seat."
considering the ward was in a marginal, would have not been better for the Tories to stand and using the occasion to raise their profile in the ward (all wards count in marginals at the end even those where you lose) rather than backing the Indy?
I suppose their logic to back the Indy was hoping in his victory to embarass Labour
8:56 am, October 29, 2007
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