Initial impact of Attack of the Clones
My earlier speculation that no one would be able to differentiate between Clegg and Cameron and this was bad news for Cameron seems to be substantiated by today's Populus poll in the Times cutting the Tory lead to 4%:
Con 37 %(-3), Lab 33% (+1), Lib Dem 19% (+3)
This is already good enough to make Labour the largest party in the Commons and the same trend next month would put the two main parties back level-pegging.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 5:07 pm
8 Comments:
Quite an increase for the Lib Dems, though.
I don't warm to Clegg, but these figures mean a hung parliament, not a fourth majority term.
5:20 pm, January 08, 2008
It may do Luke, but it also puts the nail in the coffin of the notion that the bland centrism we currently advocate is either sufficient or necessary to sustain our popularity: the only reason 33% is good enough is the quirks of our electoral system and the rise of the Libs - it does NOT suggest a ringing endorsement of new labour, does it? You people can bleat all you like about not alienating people by moving to the left, but the fact is that in before Blair we had almost half the population supporting social democracy, and we now have only a third supporting a social democratic/neo-liberal hybrid. We will almost certainly receive less votes at the next election than in 1983 - even if we win, is that a triumph? You've got to realise that we need a return to our values and a new set of policies - there are millions of young people out there who don't even know what 'Old' Labour was, yet we persist on defining ourselves against this mythical stereotype - it's just absurd. People aren't scared of social democracy and they never were.
John
11:13 pm, January 08, 2008
As I've consistently argued, Labour face a very real possibility of coming third.
Labour are more likely to lose votes to the Lib Dems than the conservatives. The switch you are seeing are probably old disenfranchised Labour voters warming to the Lib Dems. Once this settles and depending on how strong Clegg is you may well see even more voters leave Labour.
There is a whole new generation of young voters who see Labour as old fashioned. Just look at the way Labour is dealing with modern media...the Labour website is boring and lifeless. Cameron on the other hand has really embraced new media and this is reflected in opinion polls.
There are policies so simple that would improve his situation. For example, why not increase the tax allowance so that the poorest paid hardly pay tax at all. Or instead of attacking public pay why not reduce the tax on petrol...surely this would be a better way of controlling inflation. Or help employers with tax breaks so people can be trained with the skills needed to get on in life and start earning more money.
I can't imagine Brown being able to reverse the poll decline if they continue with current policy. If anything it's going to really slide as the economic outlook is not good.
I refuse to let this party damage this country any further, so unless I see a drastic change then my company will continue to push for another government that will listen. And out of all the Labour MPs I've invited to talk, it is David Cameron & Ming Cambell that has responded.
1:34 am, January 09, 2008
And out of all the Labour MPs I've invited to talk, it is David Cameron & Ming Cambell that has responded
I hate to introduce logic and facts to the discussion, but Dave and Ming ain't Labour MPs.
You seem to be forgetting that the tories were the part that deliberately stoked unemployment in order to break the unions.
As for the voting stats, I think a hung parliament (or very close Labour majority) is likely, followed by the introduction of PR (the price of lib-dem whorery) so we could be looking at the prospect of keeping the Tories well away from Government until at least around 2020 - a prospect, I hope, which would completely smash them.
8:12 am, January 09, 2008
Bill you are living on a different planet I feel.
An election today would give the tories a majority of at least 100 seats which is more than enough to form a government.
History has shown that once you start to lose popularity it rarely reverses and in most cases gets worse.
Brown is a completely dead in the water. The job is clearly too much for him. His speeches are boring and full of the same old tripe. The bloke has no mandate, non elected and a liar.
Labour promised a referendum on the EU constitution which Brown did no honour. So what do we get a referendum on Brown?
Labour have done more to damage democracy and freedom of speech in 10 years than any previous government.
Brown sold off most the UK gold reserves when gold was cheap...basically threw billions of pounds away.
Wasted billions on Northern Rock, yet resisted the funding fallen pension schemes and failed to help British Rover.
Failing the armed services despite forcing this country into a conflict we didn't want.
Not getting a mandate from brussels to limit immigration from the Eastern Block, even though Germany and France did exactly that.
Failed to meet the challenges of the energy crisis. Ironic that Germany have managed to turn green energy into a billion dollar industry in just ten year and Labour are still debating it.
Decided on nuclear power stations despite public opinion and the hight cost.
Do you really want another 5 years of Labour.
11:52 am, January 09, 2008
Richard: there is almost no chance of the Tories gaining a 100 seat majority, even on current poll figures.
History shows that existing governments can and do catch up nearer and throughout election campaigns.
But if you hold Tory opinions, then of course, you should be voting Tory. I am confused, because in one breath you talk about labour failing their core vote, then in the next you go on to express fundamental disagreement with basic Labour outlooks.
Its clear enough that you are a Tory supporter, and if pushed, yes, even 5 more years of this Labour government would be better than a Tory government. That's what most of us here think.
12:36 pm, January 09, 2008
Well, Richard, if you go to Electoral Calculus you'll see that even a 40.5% share for the Tories gets a hung parliament, due to differential turnouts and clumpy voting, Luke's figures give Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament - that is the most likely outcome (If I put money on, I think the tories will be the largest party in the hung Parliament, and lib-labbery will combine to keep them out)...
2:17 pm, January 09, 2008
I think Labour will be lucky to get 30% of the vote looking at the way the economy is heading.
12:09 am, January 10, 2008
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