A special post just for Rich
Regular commenter Rich has been saying all week that he has some kind of tip-off that the next set of polls will be so catastrophic for Labour that they would cause the PM to resign.
Well now we have two of them - ICM and YouGov. ICM has Labour up 2% and the Tories down 3%:
CON 37% (-3)
LAB 35% (+2)
LD 20% (+2)
YouGov has Labour unchanged and the Tories down 2%:
CON 41% (-2)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 16% (+2)
What happened to your prediction Rich? Care to comment and explain?
posted by Luke Akehurst at 9:01 am
12 Comments:
I don't know, the figures I've been tipped on are not meant to be release until next week.
The Ken stats don't shock me at all as despite the fact I think Ken is a crook I've always thought he would still win. I favour Boris over Ken but can't understand why Labour would want Ken in the position he is.
The general Poll is a real shock considering how poorly Labour are dealing with real issues. Not to mention the fact that even the guardian has turned on Brown over Northern Rock.
4:28 pm, January 26, 2008
Who tipped you off? And why did they do so?
Ken Livingstone a crook? Explain. Boris The Bore is no angel, remember his offensive comments about Liverpool which Michael Howard made him apologise for.
How well would Cameron deal with 'real issues'? I do not think he even knows what they are.
I gave up The Guardian when they hired Max Hastings and Geoffrey Wheatcroft. Fit only for fish and chips now.
5:11 pm, January 26, 2008
Rich
with regard to the mayoral candidates the question of 'crooks' the record is that Boris Johnson's support for crooks includs his friendship with Darius Guppy, the fraudster who asked Boris Johnson for the address of a journalist in order to have him beaten up. Boris Johnson replied: "Okay, Darrie, I said I'll do it, and I'll do it."
It's Boris Johnson who provided a character reference for Lord Conrad Black after he had been convicted of fraud by a US court, in order to assist Black's attempt to obtain a light sentence.
This is the individual who proposes to set the budget of the Metropolitan police service.
Oh yes, and he's called for big cuts in the police budget...something that real crooks will no doubt be pleased to hear.
6:49 pm, January 26, 2008
There's plenty of Boris I don't like, but between the two I would vote for Boris. The problem with this election and just about every other in election in this country is there is very little choice.
I could think of ten Labour candidates that I would consider plus does it have to be someone from politics...why can't we look into the business world for someone. If I was going to vote for anyone it would be for Gerald Batten.
If the tories had put forward a stronger candidate then Ken would have lost this fight. The fact is London is clearly divided over the issue of who they want as Mayor.
I'm not clear why Ken Livingstone thought it appropriate to defend Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi. A cleric which is currently under investigation by our secret service. It strikes me that meeting a person like Al-Qaradawilike is like meeting with a neo nazi. Ken Livingstone has done what George Galloway did and use race / peoples dislike of the Iraq war as a means to attract the ethnic vote.
It's all very well these people preaching about how wrong the Iraq war was and we should pull, but has anyone thought about the 1000s of men that have been killed. To pull out now would be the biggest crime as it would mean we have just wasted the lives of those that went out at our request.
We also have to remember those that died in the London bombings and how the Mayor meeting with Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi looks. I I know for a fact that many are very angry about this.
For a man of his importance and politcal weight I would have thought he would have known better.
I used to look up to Ken Livingstone, I thought he was someone that stood up for working class people and had principles. Now I think he's a champagne socialist on one hell of a free ride at our expense.
I think Tony Blair was a very good judge of character when he said Ken would not be good for London
8:53 pm, January 26, 2008
Luke you're a man with Labour connections why don't you try and stop stuff like this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=2IY0HIF2GAGLZQFIQMGSFFOAVCBQWIV0?xml=/news/2008/01/27/nslave127.xml
This government has been in 10 years now and it's border relaxations are resulting in more and reports such as these. Truly shocking.
I hope you can remember the bones of a young girl found in the thames about 9 years ago. Police suspected an African style sacrafice...well here's the connections. Terrible.
12:24 am, January 27, 2008
The real question is why the Guardian sat on a good poll for Labour for a week (it was ready for publication Monday).
1:56 pm, January 27, 2008
I've had a look at the poll and it's not good for labour at.
It shows that nearly 70% of people don't think Brown is doing a very good job with the economy. Considering this is meant to be his strong point I would say that is pretty damning.
2:03 pm, January 27, 2008
Rich - the story you link to about child slavery and people trafficking is indeed shocking and horrible. But surely it must be apparent that such things are only possible because desperate people see no open and legal route to find that better life for their children and, as such, it is not the alleged laxity of border controls which is at fault (given sufficient money and tenacity you could smuggle people into any country in the world) it is the twin barriers of poverty in the developing world and tough immigration controls in the developed world (including the UK) which pushes people into the arms of people smugglers.
3:05 pm, January 27, 2008
Doctor Dunc, many of my friends who left the navy now work in enforcement. Some work privately, some for the police and customs. I know from personal experience of boarding vessels in our waters what is coming in.
What I am being told is that the government has cut border security and as a result it now easier to smuggle people in. Once there in they are not being challenged because the police are over stretched.
Just look at gun crime, where the hell of people buying these guns from? There coming over in the backs of lorries and boots of cars or in private boats etc.
There has always been this problem but you know that this is getting a lot worse. Only the other week police raided a house about a mile from where I live and found romanian childred that are being groomed by criminals.
It's one of those things most people don't see because it hidden away. But that doesn't make it ok. Just the same as it's not ok to sell things in shops that are made by child slaves. It appears that people in this country want cheap products, this keeps inflation down and preserves Browns miracle economy.
We're returning to a Charles Dickens novel...dreadful.
3:27 pm, January 27, 2008
Can Labour also explain why they are closing village schools. Is this another attack on rural life?
3:46 pm, January 27, 2008
Rich - go away. This blog is for New Labour members and supporters. There's no room here for bleeding heart liberals. What do you think we are round here, bloody socialists?
4:43 pm, January 27, 2008
Labour isn't closing rural schools. Most of the local authorites that are shutting down village schools have Tory majorities (though up here it's Plaid). The attempts to blame it on the Westminster government are obviously political and are also rather pathetic. The worst part is that there's no logic in which schools are shut or not. No respectable logic anyway; I'm told that in Shropshire rural areas that vote solidly Tory are to have less schools shut than those that don't.
9:39 pm, January 28, 2008
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