The ones that didn't fit the narrative
Just for the record, I thought I'd list all the councils where Labour bucked the trend and increased our number of councillors on Thursday:
Anglesey +5
Bolton +1
Bridgend +5
Broxbourne +1
Colchester +1
Coventry +1
Hastings +1
Ipswich +3
Liverpool +3
Neath Port Talbot +1
Oxford +3
Pendle +4
Slough +4
St Helens +2
Watford +1
And here's another batch where Labour came out with the same number of councillors it went in with:
Bassetlaw
Denbighshire
Halton
Leeds
Manchester
Norwich
Preston
Rugby
Sefton
Swindon
Thurrock
Walsall
Waveney
Worcester
And here's the 12 of 14 GLA seats where our share of the vote went up compared to 2004:
North East +11.1%
Brent & Harrow +9.4%
City & East +8.6%
Lambeth & Southwark +8.0%
Enfield & Haringey +5.9%
Merton & Wandsworth +5.2%
Greenwich & Lewisham +4.9%
West Central +4.1%
Barnet & Camden +3.6%
Ealing & Hillingdon +3.5%
Croydon & Sutton +1.3%
Havering & Redbridge +1%
Given that quite a few of the places in all three categories are or include key parliamentary marginals, take any extrapolations of likely composition of the Commons based on projected national vote shares with a big pinch of salt.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 8:43 pm
12 Comments:
Listening to Brown this morning it is very clear that Labour are deluded. You can't spin your way out of this one Luke.
How on earth can Gordon argue for tax cuts when everytime the conservatives talk about cuts Brown warns of cut backs etc etc. The man is a hypocrite. We have have just thrown away 100 billion pounds and Gordon wants to cut taxes.....something will have to give.
The result was dreadful and unless Brown goes quickly then you will be seeing a lot worse at the next election.
9:04 pm, May 04, 2008
Try listing the areas where your vote fell and there were swings against you, or don't you have room?
9:16 pm, May 04, 2008
Its always the case that you can't completely extrapolate local election results into the national scenario
But given that these results are being compared with 2004, when Labour also did badly, it isn't encouraging.
What, Luke, I think you have to face up to - and I see no evidence that you have taken this on board - is that the Tories are no longer the feared and loathed 'nasty party' Now, you and I may argue that the changes are merely surface level, although I do feel that Cameron is more socially liberal than his predecessors. However, this is a scenario which hasn't been in place since 1997. I think it will require a dioffferent response.
Ypur problem is that you sinceely think that all labour has to do is repeat the new labour slogans and those Tories will return. I think thats unlikely - for the reason that the Tories are now credible. So, the aim must be to maximise core Labour support and enthuse those who have switched to the LD's (often middle class professionals) and the core working class vote, who have simply stopped voting - and if you don;t believe me, you try stirring voters in Bootle!
9:17 pm, May 04, 2008
Crewe is going to loose its 7000 majority , MP candidates were parachuted into some Welsh constituencies under Blair , and look what happened, the locals revolted.
Brown is now sending a welsh reject with no link to the area, on the back of a sympathy vote , strike while the bodies still warm perhaps .....
Nepotisms a bit stinky, thus the irritation over the sibling expenses trough.
Cameron's in with a chance ,because of this ....It just looks disrespectful and cynical politics ..
Brown should have gone with a known local .
More tough results to come ..methinks
Tankus
9:57 pm, May 04, 2008
I'm not sure voters in Crewe will be worried about having an MP's daughter from Wales, as their previous MP was not from Crewe, had previously represented and been voted out by Exeter, and was both the daughter of a Labour General Secretary and the wife of another MP.
The new candidate wasn't parachuted - she beat 60 other candidates and was selected by local party members.
10:11 pm, May 04, 2008
I note North East isn't one of the 12 out of 14. Ho ho ho.
"City & East +8.6%"
I wonder what the increase in postals in Tower Hamlets compared with 2004 was....
10:19 pm, May 04, 2008
anonymous
try reading more carefully. North East tops the list of increases in the Labour vote.
10:22 pm, May 04, 2008
Ah, true enough. I should have gone to Specsavers.
11:35 pm, May 04, 2008
Luke - Oxford East constituency is a good example. One of Labour's hypermarginals, with mediocre boundary changes - yet our majority across Oxford East based on on our vote share on Thursday would be 18%!
No complacency, no resting on our laurels: we're out in two Liberal-held wards next weekend - if you're ever up visiting the in-laws, come and join us - we're out twice a week every week all year. Antonia x
1:55 pm, May 05, 2008
And thats good, Antonia - maybe you could give some advice as to how to buck the national trend! Are there things which you are doing which have been abandoned in other areas?
Or is it the case that Oxford East's dalliance with the LD's has collapsed? I know they were close to winning there last time. Have those voters returned to Labour?
10:59 am, May 06, 2008
Don't get to carried away with winning 1 ward in Colchester. It's a ward where there is already 1 Labour councillor with a good rep and where the 2 Lib Dem's defected to the Tories last year. This made this 1 ward quite a tasty target for Labour.
In short that result is all down to local factors in that ward and that ward alone. Labour will still most likely come a poor 3rd in Colchester at the next general election. In my own ward Labour didn't bother to campaign at all (as usual).
1:13 pm, May 06, 2008
Dear Luke
Thanks for all this. I have just had a reporter from the Westminster Hour on, and given you a puff.
Let me know if you get a call.
Peter
3:37 pm, May 06, 2008
Post a Comment
<< Home