Council By-Election Results
Just two council by-elections yesterday:
Teversham Ward, South Cambs DC. LD gain from Con. LD 269 (38.6%, +2.9), Con 237 (34.0%, - 30.3), Ind (former Lab County Cllr for the area) 191 (27.4%, +27.4). Swing of 16.6% from Con to LD since 2007.
Mile End East Ward, LB Tower Hamlets. Lab hold. Lab 1208 (47.3%, +15.1), Con 630 (24.7%, +13.7), Respect 604 (23.7%, -0.3), LD 110 (4.3%, -15.7). Swing of 0.7% from Con to Lab since 2006. This ward returned 2 Labour and 1 Respect councillor in 2006 so holding it with a 15% increase in the vote is a great achievement for my Unite/Amicus colleague Rachael Saunders. Respect dropping to 3rd place is a good sign for Labour's chances in the two Tower Hamlets seats in the General Election. Lib Dems continuing to decline in area where they were strong second as recently as 2002. Recent Tory revival in Tower Hamlets continuing.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 8:03 am
9 Comments:
Fantastic result in Mile End, but another example of an election where "swing" is a completely meaningless concept.
2:38 pm, November 21, 2008
The Liberal Democrat disintegration in this borough has been the most overlooked story of recent years. It's incredible to remember that not only was Tower Hamlets the last borough in Inner London to have had a Liberal MP before Simon Straight Choice Hughes but also had one of the most (in)famous Liberal Democrat borough administrations between 1986 and 1994 - only yesterday in college in an unrelated context was I reminded of the notice served on it.
This ward is in what will be the Poplar & Limehouse constituency that Galloway is contesting (indeed most of the ward was the old Limehouse ward). It doesn't look good for Galloway's hopes of being able to finance his luxury lifestyle on a parliamentary salary!
2:52 pm, November 21, 2008
P.S. The RESPECT drop is even more spectacular when you consider that their candidate stood as an independent here in 2006.
My figures use "divide total votes by number of seats" method for getting the 2006 %s but the combined drop for the Indie turned RESPECT comes to 9.6%
Party Votes % Change
Labour 1208 47.3354232 +15.11246805
Conservatives 630 24.68652038 +12.46136646
Respect 604 23.6677116 -3.794909334
Liberal Democrats 110 4.310344828 -17.94119431
(Independent NO SEP CAN - -5.837730871)
TOTAL 2552
2:58 pm, November 21, 2008
But look at the country luke, its on its knees. Thousands of people have received letters from their banks this week informing them of cuts in overdraft and credit card limits. These are the banks that are now partly owned by the tax payer....Halifax for one.
In some ways it is a good thing as people will start to realise money has to be earned before it is spent. But it also knocks the confidence out of the consumer and in turn damages the economy. Suddenly the consumer no longer has the credit lifeline...it has been cut.
The Banks are causing misery at the moment both on a domestic and commercial scale. They are taking their money and keeping it. Our business is facing a very uncertain future after our over draft was withdrawn 4 weeks ago. We simply can't survive more than 3 months without our overdraft.
Unemployment is going to rocket next year and the governments welfare reforms are going to cause misery.
I really would like to know what the government is going to do. Lots of talk but no action.
6:45 pm, November 21, 2008
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
This is what Robert Preston thinks of Browns work....disaster.
6:51 pm, November 21, 2008
I like the blond one.
http://www.girlsaloud.co.uk/site.php
At least Brown can't spoil my favourite band.
Whoops that last post should have said Peston not Preston.
Soz it's magic mushroom season!
1:05 am, November 22, 2008
I don't think that the Liberals ever actually won a Tower Hamlets seat, did they? Or are you talking about in the early 20th century? I know Eric Flounders came in a strong second but I'm not aware that they ever took the seat
1:23 am, November 22, 2008
It was before the modern borough boundaries - Percy Harris held the Bethnal Green South West seat from 1922 to 1945, and for the last ten years it was the last Liberal seat in inner London until *that* by-election, and subsequently Bethnal Green retained a strong Liberal vote in the party's direst years (including sending the only Liberals to the London County Council in 1946 and 1949). Harris's methods were the antecedent of Liberal "community politics".
5:03 pm, November 22, 2008
It was a fantastic result for Labour and for Rachael Saunders. Both the Tories and Respect were expecting to win (if anyone does have a copy of the 'Conservatives take Mile End East' press release that was floating around the count, please do share it).
The result if anything overstates both Respect and the Conservative support. Hafiz and Motiur are well known elders in the community in Mile End East, and would have expected to get a personal vote + their parties vote. Clearly, something happened. Better still, their personal vote isn't transferable to the General Election: Labour is back in business.
And depending on how you account for the independent vote in 2006, it can be argued that Labour increased its share of the vote by ober 18% not 15%.
3:31 am, November 25, 2008
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