YouGov points to Labour as largest party
Today's YouGov poll, taken after the PBR, puts Labour on 36% (same as at the last General Election), the Tories on 40% and the LDs on 14%. On a uniform swing this would give Labour 313 seats in the Commons (13 short of a majority), the Tories 289, and the Lib Dems 20.
Most people agree that with the exception of ICM, the pollsters are under-reporting Lib Dem support by at least 3%.
I agree but my hunch is that the missing 3% of Lib Dems are primarily in the south and south west and that therefore the negative impact of this will be on the Tories in seats they are trying to win back from incumbent Lib Dems. I would guess that the Lib Dems will hold about 40 seats, leaving the Tories even further behind on about 270 i.e. equivalent to what Kinnock got in 1992.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 10:20 am
6 Comments:
This then is the Cheltenham dilemma (for electoral purposes we're in the South West but for TV reception purposes we're in the Midlands. In reality we're an outlier of the gentler bits of the Home Counties).
We have a Liberal MP. Should we campaign vigorously against him in a general election knowing that that might help the Tories to win back the seat (which Michael Heseltine (amongst others) thinks they rightfully own)?
10:48 am, November 26, 2008
I think every Labour candidate has to campaign vigorously. It's not for Labour to try to guess the influence on the outcome of a battle between the 2 anti-Labour parties of our campaigning, our job is to maximise our own vote in every constituency.
Having said that, in Cheltenham you can of course avoid the dilemma if it worries you, and fulfil your obligations to the key seat strategy by giving lots of campaigning help to Parmjit Dhanda in nearby marginal Gloucester.
11:10 am, November 26, 2008
And/or David Drew in even more marginal Stroud...
11:35 am, November 26, 2008
Any reason for the omission of Drew there, Luke? He's gonna need as much help as Parmjit
12:25 am, November 27, 2008
No reason at all - I'm a big fan of David Drew as we know each other through Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform. Gloucester was just the first nearby marginal that sprung to mind.
I assume the regional party will have a grid where they allocate Cheltenham and other non-marginal CLPs to twin with a specific marginal - no idea if that will be Stroud or Gloucester.
7:56 am, November 27, 2008
Luke you have no chance at the next general election. Millions of working people are going to give you the biggest shock you have ever had. This is going to be a vote that tactically removes your party for 20 years.....everyone is fed up Luke.
9:46 pm, November 28, 2008
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