Can Labour win?

Some interesting observations by Professor John Curtice at an IPPR lunchtime presentation he gave on Monday on whether Labour can win the next General Election:

• Almost all elections are decided on basis of which party is judged more competent.
• New Labour in 1997 was almost unique in altering the character of the Labour vote - normally party support distribution stays the same across classes and goes up and down in uniformly according the the competence criteria.
• To win an overall majority Labour only needs to be level-pegging with the Tories in vote share.
• The current "bounce" occurred because of Brown's speech at the Labour conference - this lifted the Labour poll share by 5% whereas the bank bailout had no effect on Labour's ratings. Curtice believes that it is the political salesmanship that shifts the polls, not the actual policy decisions. The second stage of Labour's boost was Glenrothes, after which they went up a further 4%.
• In Scotland the Labour poll trajectory has mirrored that in the UK as a whole but with the SNP profiting from Labour's misfortunes then being hit by the Labour recovery. The Tories can't break the 20% barrier in Scotland.
• The Labour recovery is only 5-6% on average above the figures from the summer, so Curtice believes Labour is not yet back in contention.
• Citing the 1966-'70, 1974-'79, 1979-'83, 1983-'87 and 1987-'92 parliaments he said there were multiple precedents for governments recovering from a low point to about 40% within 12 months. Labour might therefore end up level-pegging with the Tories within 6-12 months. However, these kind of recoveries don't guarantee victory (e.g. 1970, 1979). The Brown bounce is not as decisive or strong as the government recoveries generated by decisive events such as the fall of Thatcher or the Falklands War.
• The British Social Attitudes survey reveals bad news for Labour, as on a raft of questions related to equality, public opinion has been showing a sustained drift to the right - from a high point support for left-of-centre attitudes of 64% in 1994 down to 44% last year. This might change if Labour articulates the equality message more strongly.
• On tax and spend there is also bad news for Labour as the balance of opinion has now reverted to 1980s levels of hostility to increased taxation and spending.
• Mori polling on the relative importance of key issues to the public shows the economy is back as the top issue after a decade when it was running fifth in the list. After the 2005 election health and education were high importance issues, as was defence because of Iraq, but now both they and race/immigration are a lot less important to the public. Crime has remained steadily the second most important issue. In 2001-2005 the public services messages Labour had were resonant, but now they are a lot less relevant to the public, who are focused on economic competence.
• Labour's ratings on economic competence have gone up but these are related to handling a crisis, not raising living standards where the Tories are still ahead. The public seem to want Labour to solve the current crisis, but maybe not then get another four year mandate.
• "Borrowing" is a very unpopular concept with the public. There is no public understanding of Keynesian economics. Tories can therefore attacking borrowing by implying its level is a proxy for measuring economic incompetence.
• The score Labour needs to win (34% if the LDs recover to their 2005 position) is a low target so victory might happen. But the climate of public values now favours the Tories. Labour's handling of the financial crisis has started to restore its economic credibility but the task is incomplete.
• There is too little polling data to understand whether there are different trends in different English regions i.e. whether the Labour recovery is in safe seats or marginals.
• Long-term structural decline in the Labour vote (because of falling TU membership and de-industrialisation) is no longer a major factor as the decline in size of the working class has now slowed down.
• Current polling volatility is nothing new - there was extraordinary volatility for the whole period from the late 1960s through to 1983. Even in the '50s 25% of people changed their minds about who to vote for during the month of an election. Curtice said "there are always lots of sheep in the electorate - the party with the best sheepdog wins".
• Calls for an early election from Labour MPs are crazy - Labour needs to be in contention and stay there for a while, a short term bounce is not enough.
• However, May 2009 is not early - it's after 4 years. If by Feb/Mar Labour is consistently 2 or 3% ahead then it might be a reasonable gamble to go to the polls in May as you would be betting losing 1 guaranteed year in power against gaining 4/5 more - otherwise better to wait longer.
• Whereas when he took over Brown's personal reputation required him to get the same 66 seat majority as Blair or better, now he will be seen as a miracle worker if he gets a 1 seat majority.
• The Tories will have a tough time finding anything they can cut in the public services given the existing tight spending climate.
• The Lib Dems have a stronger core position than pre-'97. They might get 20% if they fight a good campaign but it is "not proven" that Clegg can deliver this.