Predictions for 2009
My work colleague Ewan Watt has tagged me to make some predictions for 2009, so here goes, though mine are more of the nature of random guesses and in some cases, wildly optimistic hopes:
- Labour will narrowly win the Seven Sisters Ward by-election in Haringey on 15 January.
- Labour will win the Stoke Newington Central Ward by-election in Hackney on 29 January with a swing from Green to Labour. (this bullet point Promoted by Luke Akehurst of Flat 1, 8 Beatty Road, London, N16 8EB on behalf of Louisa Thomson of 81A Farleigh Road, London, N16 7TD. Hosted (printed) by Blogger.com (Google Inc) of 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043 who are not responsible for any of the contents of this post).
- The Unite/Amicus General Secretary election will be a photo-finish between Kevin Coyne and incumbent Derek Simpson.
- I will throw myself into contesting a parliamentary selection somewhere, the laws of probability meaning that there must be somewhere I'm keen to stand that isn't an All Women Shortlist.
- There won't be a General Election in the first quarter of the year.
- But Labour will edge narrowly ahead in the polls by March.
- The General Election will be called to coincide with the 4 June Euro Elections - why allow these to happen as stand-alones when they are usually a bad news story for Labour?
- Labour will emerge as either the largest party in a hung parliament, or with a very narrow overall majority.
- Labour will make against the tide parliamentary gains in Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, Manchester Withington, Rochdale and Hornsey & Wood Green.
- The BNP will win MEPs in a couple of larger regions in the Euro Elections, the results of which aren't declared until the Sunday after the General Election - but fewer than they would have got if the elections had been held separately from the GE and had a lower turnout.
- Peter Hain and David Blunkett will return to Government.
- Compass will attack Labour's fourth victory as further evidence of Brown selling-out.
- All three political parties will end 2009 with the same leaders they started with.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 10:44 am
24 Comments:
Labour will make against the tide parliamentary gains in Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, Manchester Withington, Rochdale and Hornsey & Wood Green.
and Bristol West
11:16 am, December 22, 2008
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11:22 am, December 22, 2008
Do you think there is a danger of an anti lisbon treaty campaign deflecting a general election held in June?
11:51 am, December 22, 2008
No, because even political trainspotters like me aren't interested in the Lisbon Treaty.
12:22 pm, December 22, 2008
Boris Johnson to lose another handful of advisers.
1:13 pm, December 22, 2008
By March of next year unemployment will be blasting its way to new heights and Brown will have finally run out of ways to spend money he doesn't have. And you expect Labour support to increase?! Only if Brown offers everyone a free lobotomy on the NHS...
2:35 pm, December 22, 2008
Labour will make against the tide parliamentary gains in Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, Manchester Withington, Rochdale and Hornsey & Wood Green.
Hardly against the tide, just reclaiming what's rightfully ours, after a little local difficulty last time!
3:01 pm, December 22, 2008
i dont think brown will call an election he is a serial bottler i think he will hold on till the last minute so i think the euro elections will be on they,re own which will help bnp due to a low turn out as for the lisbon treaty i think it matters to more people than you think and if a general election is held on the same day it could definately cost labour votes
3:29 pm, December 22, 2008
Luke - most of your predictions fall within the boundaries of a good posibilities.
But with the increased turnout of a general election I suggest that the possibility of the Nutzies gaining MEP seats fall dramatically.
GW
5:40 pm, December 22, 2008
There are some nuts who come out for European elections but don't for parliamentary elections.
Please let's not stoke rumours of a June election. Why do we want to give the press an excuse to focus on process stories instead of on the economy?
12:53 am, December 23, 2008
Labour probably won't win back either seat in Blaenau Gwent (i.e Assembly and Westminster) until the incumbents choose to stand down.
9:32 am, December 23, 2008
I think a June 4th election is unlikely - three votes on one day! Mind you, my track record at making predictions is so poor that it must now make that date a favourite.
As a believer in fixed-term Parliamenets I hope Gordon does hold onto May 2010.
Good luck Luke in finding a seat.
9:40 am, December 23, 2008
'Win back Hornsey & Wood Green'
There isn't a Labour cllr in Haringey who believes this, particularly after the Baby P scandel -with another case due in court next year!
5:59 pm, December 23, 2008
"Labour will win the Stoke Newington Central Ward by-election in Hackney on 29 January with a swing from Green to Labour."
Shouldn't you cover yourself against the usual accusations by carrying a statement about who you are and your status (i.e. as election agent) in the by-election?
6:43 pm, December 23, 2008
I will be putting an imprint on any posts that promote the election of the Labour candidate. I believe that one predicted it, not promoted it.
8:07 pm, December 23, 2008
But I've put it in to make you happy.
8:17 pm, December 23, 2008
I hope you are right about Hornsey and Wood Green. I don't think I have ever heard a more inept and out-of-her-depth MP. Unfortunately this is what happens when you try and pretend politics is about nothing but potholes and dogshit.
3:44 pm, December 24, 2008
So who do you think will come 2nd in Seven Sisters? How many do YOU think Labour will win by?
11:42 am, December 25, 2008
That's right, Luke: blame your non-selection on "all women shortlists".
How very unattractive.
8:30 pm, December 26, 2008
Kris, read my previous posts. I support all women shortlists.I haven't tried to get selected in this cycle (yet) because so far the five seats I have had an interest in have all ended up being AWS - not a complaint, just a fact.
4:11 pm, December 28, 2008
What about my Seven Sisters questions????
11:06 pm, December 28, 2008
Blunkette back?Please God,Nooooooooooo!
2:06 pm, December 30, 2008
i predict labour to come third in seven sisters - behind liberals and tories. i would be very surprised to see any other result.
i would also be extraordinarily surprised to see blaenau gwent, hornsey + wg, or withington (or indeed bristol west - i had a good giggle at that paul) go back to labour. southwark and the new brent central seat are a remote possibility for you guys, but come on lukey, let's get backto reality.
i'd predict the loss of islington south, kilburn and hampstead, gorton and watford to the lib dems as a starting point, and wouldn't be shocked to see ediburgh south go though i'd say it's less certain.
on the tory side, there's probably no point in listing thirty seats you're going to lose.
i reckon you're bang on with the polling day prediction though.
9:43 pm, January 01, 2009
I can't imagine anyone with any sense wanting to vote for the LibDems under Clegg's leadership. I'd rather have Cameron and that's saying something. Clegg makes Cameron look substantial. Quite an achievement.
9:14 pm, January 02, 2009
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