A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
Two new polls out tonight show Labour holding on to the 4-6% lift it got in the polls from its conference, and no comparable boost for the Tories, i.e. the Tory lead is only 2/3 what it was, and the Labour vote 1/4 higher than it was three weeks ago:
posted by Luke Akehurst at 9:16 pm
Labour MP for North Durham since 2024. Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012 and since 2020. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Dad. Unite and GMB union member. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.
22 Comments:
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!
Stuff that up your bicycle pump, Lord Gaga!
The poor, sad Tories think they're heading for a 1997-style landslide. Instead it looks like hung Parliament time. Watch the panic set in any time now!
7:36 am, October 18, 2009
Looks like the millions of public sector workers, benefits claimants, scroungers, quangocrats, criminals, and other enemies of Britain are afraid of being cleaned up by a Conservative Government - that's why the Labour vote is firming up.
But not by enough. Cameron has laid his cards on the table - to shrink the bloated State - and told people to take it or leave it. If he wins - likely as long as the lead holds above 8-9% - then he will have a powerful mandate to do precisely that.
4:03 pm, October 18, 2009
SheerJunius
"Looks like the millions of public sector workers, benefits claimants, scroungers, quangocrats, criminals, and other enemies of Britain are afraid of being cleaned up by a Conservative Government - that's why the Labour vote is firming up."
Oh dear...
It seems that the latest series of Opinion Polls have started to well and truly "Put the Wind Up" the Conservatives...
As for the above comment... well it is not really worth me commenting on really... aside from saying that I have not heard such hysterical... non-factual... unsubstantiated nonesense in my life...
Oh and that it smells rather like Sour Grapes...
The Conservatives are far from being assured victory in next years General Election...
Get over it mate...!
6:51 pm, October 18, 2009
Surely before they cross the ballot form in the Tory box they should think back to 1979-1997, when it was far worse than now. People won't just vote labour for their choice of party or they are content with them-they will vote because they don't want another wretched term of extreme right wing Thatcherite misery!
7:30 pm, October 18, 2009
very much doubt the Tories will be worried by these polls.
Incidentally, would a hung Parliament be good? Contributors to this blog seem to have given up on a Lavour victory and consider a hung Parliament the best outcome now. It is very odd...
7:39 pm, October 18, 2009
Building on that, it actually seems to me that a hung Parliament, with Brown still as leader, would be particularly disastrous for Labour. If they're the biggest Party, would Clegg really want to shore up such an unpopular Prime Minister? The prospect of a hung Parliament actually makes the leadership issue rather more pressing, so that a less tainted leader eg Johnson could make overtures to Clegg that would then keep Cameron out.
10:51 am, October 19, 2009
SheerJunius Why should middle and working class people vote for the end of welfare, public services.
I have one question for you?
Should the poor vote to be poor.
"afraid of being cleaned up by a Conservative Government" I think that says all their is about tory values.
11:21 am, October 19, 2009
Dirty Euro,
Britain now pays out more in benefits every year than it takes in income tax - this is clearly unsustainable. What an ideal Conservative Government would do would be to introduce a flat tax rate, reduce benefits, BUT raise the threshold at which tax kicks in to around £10,000. So millions of the poorest workers would _ no longer have to pay tax_, ending the "welfare trap" caused by marginal tax rates forever.
But Britain won't do it - there are too many "caring" socialists prepared to keep paying the poor to remain in eternal poverty - and eternally dependent on the Labour Party.
Think about it - Labour's traditional support comes from the poor (and recently billionaires, but you don't like to talk about that), so why would they ever want to reduce the number of poor people? Then they'll just go and vote Tory...
12:07 pm, October 19, 2009
SheerJunius
Increasing tax for the rich, and cutting taxes for the poor is progressive taxes which is something the tories never do.
The last time they cut taxes for the rich and brought in VAT, which is a regressive tax.
They represent the richer people and they think redistribution and public services provided by taxes are evil and communist.
I support cutting taxes for the poor by increasing taxes on the rich.
You support cutting public services, welfare and taxes for the rich. A president Bush - Hoover style government.
1:25 pm, October 19, 2009
If the housing market was controlled by regulation and mechanism's then inflation would be a lot lower and so would benefit payments especially housing benefit!
Wages need to be paid, that are more than enough for workers to live on without the need to claim a top up up.
Jobs should be given as a human right and instead of paying benefits to keep them unemployed!
Everyone who is able to contribute to society should become part of it!
5:34 pm, October 19, 2009
Labour attacking the Tories for not supporting the poor is truly extraordinary. The Party tries and tries again to pull the ladder up for those that benefit from the 10p tax rate and then says 'ooo ain't the Tories nasty'.
It's like a crap pantomime with the Tories as the baddies.
Any Labour supporter should be ashamed.
8:18 pm, October 19, 2009
Dirty Euro
"They represent the richer people and they think redistribution and public services provided by taxes are evil and communist"
There's no need to use both "evil" and "communist" in that sentence - the two are synonymous.
"I support cutting taxes for the poor by increasing taxes on the rich.
You support cutting public services, welfare and taxes for the rich."
I support cutting taxes for everyone, so that they have the money in their pocket to use as they please; I don't hanker after infantile class warfare, and, as I pointed out, the policy of flat taxation (which Osborne is known to favour, if implementing it were politically possible) would leave a lot more money in the pockets of the poorest.
What has Labour every done for you to make you so grateful towards them?
8:38 pm, October 19, 2009
'Sheer Junius' - you're being entertainingly idiotic.
Maybe the 'poor' would have ever so slightly more money in their pockets with a flat tax, but in order to finance the cutw the government would have to abolish or charge for many services which are currently free, so they will be far worse off.
It may well be what Osborne really wants, but I doubt he'll have the bottle to say so outright.
8:59 pm, October 19, 2009
Had the Tories not sold off the countries assets and squandered North sea oil revenue by keeping 6 million unemployed, due to a Neo conservative social engineering experiment between 79-97 we might have all been far better off now with good jobs earning proper money!
9:45 pm, October 19, 2009
SheerJunius
It is not infantile class warfare it is "REALITY".
You want to cut taxes for the rich and to destroy public services. That would lower the living standards of working and middle class people. That is reality the real situation of peoples lives it is nothing to do with class warfare. I am sorry you do not have the gall to admit what your ideas would do to working class and middle class people. You would destroy their public services, and lives end of story.
They would not have more money in their pockets. As they would have no education, health, transport services, police.
9:52 pm, October 19, 2009
Chaps - let me give you an example. The NHS now costs - every year - three times what it cost to run in 1997. Three times. Now, put away the bleeding hearts for a moment (aw, it helped so many people, etc.) and tell me whether the present service is three times as good as it was then. Or to take another example: I sell you a pint which costs £2 - it's not a world-beater, but it does what it's supposed to, and is satisfactory. Now wait, I say, I've got something really special for you ... except it costs £6 a pint.
You mind try it - you might agree it's a bit better - but you'd be damned if you had to pay that much every day. That's the present NHS in a nutshell...
12:13 am, October 20, 2009
Actually my experience as a patient tells me the NHS is infinitely better than it was in 97- not just three times.
Even by the standards of loony online activists, it's bizarre comparing buying a pint to saving lives and improving life quality through shorter waiting lists, much better facilities, sufficient staff, targetted provision etc.
12:41 pm, October 20, 2009
Nobody thought the NHS was satisfactory in 1997.......
........apart from a few discredited ideologues who are all on the Tory payroll (public sector) and who will also tell you rail privatisation was a good thing-
12:45 pm, October 20, 2009
Labour's economic strategy is "win the recession and then sort out the deficit", a Keynesian approach used by FDR for his New Deal (and to win World War 2). It has been adopted by Merkel, Sarkosy, Obama and the rest of the G20.
The Tory policy of immediate cuts is si,ilar to that adopted by many countries during the 1930s. It helped to prolong the depression then and would cause a double dip recession now.
The erstwhile Greek conservative government had a tory-style programme and wasrejected by the Greek people. The nearest I can think of to the Tories' "stuff the people as long as the books balance" is probably North Korea.
Barry Edwards
1:12 pm, October 20, 2009
Latest poll (IPSOS Mori) gives the Tories a 17 point lead. Another blip, but shows no one can read too much into individual polls.
4:38 pm, October 20, 2009
Sod it - let the people speak!
Three new polls tonight - all on politicalbetting.com:
1. MORI
Con: 43
Lab: 26
Lib: 19
Lead of 17 points!
2. ICM
Con: 44
Lab: 27
Lib: 18
Lead of 17 points!
3. Angus Reid (new)
Con: 40
Lab: 23
Lib: 20
Lead of 17 points!
Maybe Luke could run those - or dismiss then as a random statistical fluctuation. Maybe the next election can finally cauterize the weeping sore of the Labour Party from the British body politic...
8:00 pm, October 20, 2009
SheerJunius Looks like the millions of rich bankers, greedy elites, criminals, and other enemies of Britain are afraid of being cleaned up by a Labour Government.
12:26 am, October 21, 2009
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