A good poll to kick off the short campaign
ICM -
Con 37% (down 1)
Lab 33% (up 4)
LD 21% (down 2)
a) ICM are seen by other pollsters as the "gold standard" for accuracy
b) this percentage share would make Labour the largest party in the Commons by about a 25 seat margin
c) traditionally there's about a 5% swing back to the government during most UK General Election campaigns - it only need a 2% swing for Labour to be level with the Tories and back on the score we got in 2005
6 Comments:
Cheers, mate!
Let's send Cameron back to the obscurity from whence he came. Roll on 6th May! Labour to win!
7:12 am, April 06, 2010
traditionally there is a swing away from Labour during a campaign. Political Betting had a properly sourced article on this http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/
7:13 am, April 06, 2010
I'm still pessimistic.
That Gene Hunt campaign poster is a disastrous misjudgment isn't it? People like Gene Hunt - it's idiotic to compare him to Cameron
10:43 am, April 06, 2010
no longer quoting YouGov...? The average poll lead for the Tories has been pretty consistent at 6-ish but risen slightly in the last week.
1:17 pm, April 06, 2010
Tories say they will stand up for society's dispossessed
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-say-they-will-stand-up-for-societys-dispossessed-470217.html
5:03 pm, April 06, 2010
I did a you gov survey today.
11:13 pm, April 06, 2010
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