Regional swings
PoliticsHome has done a useful table showing YouGov's aggregated regional swing data:
This gives a far more realistic picture of what's going on than the national poll numbers do, as it reveals different regions have moved towards the Tories at very different rates.
I've run the numbers against the Tory target seat list, thanks to my trusty copy of Rallings & Thrasher's "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" and found that they would produce (in descending order of Con to Lab swing):
West Midlands (9% swing): 18 gains from Lab, 1 from LD
North East (8.5% swing): 2 gains from Lab (nice swing but hardly any marginals up there)
North West (7.5% swing): 19 gains from Lab, 3 from LD
East Midlands (7.5% swing): 12 gains from Lab
Eastern (7.5% swing): 10 gains from Lab
Wales (7% swing): 4 gains from Lab, 1 from LD, 2 PC gains from Lab
Yorkshire (6.5% swing): 9 gains from Lab, 1 from LD
London (5% swing): 9 gains from Lab, 3 from LD
South East (5% swing): 5 gains from Lab, 4 from LD
Scotland (1% swing): No Tory gains, 1 SNP gain from Lab
South West (0.5% swing): No gains from Lab, 2 from LD
There wouldn't be any LD gains from Lab or Con.
The net impact is to leave the Tories about 10 seats short of an overall majority and Labour still with some southern outposts such as Dover, Luton N, both Norwichs, both Swindons, the Bristol cluster, both Plymouths, Exeter, South Dorset, Gloucester, Stroud, Reading West, Oxford East, Slough, both Southamptons and Brighton Pavilion; plus a big block of LD seats in the South West.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 2:09 pm
5 Comments:
I guess the swing in SW is so low probably also because there're many constituencies there with Labour already third and with few margin to go down too much again.
I would very surprised to see Lab holding some of the seats listed. A couple of them will be hold though IMO.
The swing in Midlands is as about as much as I would expect. Healthy swing in the North too, not good for Labour (especially North West with lots of marginals; as you said, NE have few marginals anyway)
2:43 pm, April 14, 2010
Looking at the lib dems if I was brown I would be very worried. The lib dems have by far the strongest manifesto. Thank god we finally have a political party willing to overhaul the tax system.
It's a pirtty more voters aren't willing to give them a chance but even despite the fact they won't form the next government I believe they will hold the balance for power.
6:15 pm, April 14, 2010
I wish I could share your optimism about Gloucestershire seats but I fear the bookies may be correct - we could end up with six out of six being Tory. Our county isn't in the "real" south west, its people probably think more like those in the West Midlands or South East do.
But we certainly haven't given up!
Neither of the two big regions in the south of England is a satisfactory grouping. There should have been a central southern one with Oxfordshire, Hampshire, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire and Bristol in it. It's all John Major's fault but people, especially Tories who don't want housing built, seem to have forgotten that it was his government that established our regional structure to take some decision making away from the dreaded "faceless bureaucrats" of Whitehall...
11:45 am, April 15, 2010
I'd be suprised if the Tories win that many seats of the libdems, as libdem incumbents tend to buck the trend in national swings.
1:04 pm, April 15, 2010
"There wouldn't be any LD gains from Lab or Con."
"The net impact is to leave Labour still with ... a big block of LD seats in the South West."
Methinks Luke Akehurst will eat his words!
1:14 pm, April 16, 2010
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