Congratulations
to my friend Seema Malhotra on winning the Feltham & Heston by-election
yesterday. Seema will make a brilliant MP – she is local to the area but a
national calibre politician who has worked incredibly hard for the party for
many years. Congratulations also to Malcolm Powers who was Campaign
Co-ordinator for an extremely well run campaign on a short timetable.
The full
results are worth listing:
· Seema Malhotra, Labour - 12,639
(54.42%, +10.79%)
· Mark Bowen, Conservative - 6,436
(27.71%, -6.32%)
· Roger Crouch, Liberal Democrats -
1,364 (5.87%, -7.87%)
· Andrew Charalambous, UKIP - 1,276
(5.49%, +3.45%)
· David Furness, BNP -540 (2.33%,
-1.21%)
· Daniel Goldsmith, Green - 426
(1.83%, +0.74%)
· Roger Cooper, English Democrats -
322 (1.39%)
· George Hallam, London People
Before Profit - 128 (0.55%)
· David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis
Party - 93 (0.40%)
This is
in a seat which the Tories held from 1983 to 1992 and were hopeful of gaining
in 2010.
This
swing (8.6% from Con to Lab, 9.3% from LD to Lab) repeated nationally on the
current boundaries would see Labour gain exactly 100 seats from the Tories
(down as far as the iconic Enfield Southgate) and 15 from the Lib Dems.
There
were a number of council by-elections yesterday as well as the Feltham
& Heston poll:
Coombe
Vale Ward, RB Kingston-on-Thames. 2X Con holds. Con 1340, 1308 (43.8%, +0.8),
LD 908, 778 (29.7%, -7.5), Lab 526, 502 (17.2%, +7.3), Green 122, 108 (4%,
-3.3), CPA 94, 76 (3.1%, +0.4), UKIP 70 (2.3%, +2.3). Swing of 4.2% from LD to
Con since 2010. The substantial increase in the Labour vote share, holding
almost exactly 100% of the raw vote we got in 2010 on a General Election day
turnout, is indicative of the massive organisational effort going on in
previously weak areas of outer London in the run-up to the mayoral election.
Frisby on
the Wreake Ward, Melton DC. Ind gain from Con. Ind 212 (38.5%, +38.5), Con 187
(34%, -37), Lab 89 (16.2%, -12.8), Ind 62 (11.3%, +11.3). Swing of 37.8% from
Con to Ind since May this year.
Clare and
Shuttern Ward, Mid Devon DC. Con hold. Con 385 (63.6%, +4.1), Ind 166 (27.4%,
-13.1), UKIP 54 (8.9%, +8.9). Swing of 8.6% from Ind to Con since May this year.
Central
Ward, Shetland UA. Ind hold. All candidates were independents, except a Tory
who got 4.2%.
5 Comments:
Admittedly they are all quite tiny, but I find it interesting that UKIP in most if not all cases improved their share of the vote - and in some cases actually the vote (F&H) - in the week that the Tories were more eurosceptic than ever. It will be interesting to see who they are picking up their vote from and what Labour's response will be.
10:49 pm, December 16, 2011
Did you note that the swing was obviously bigger than Tory spinners were prepared for? Of course they tried anyway; hilarious.
1:30 pm, December 17, 2011
It's very disappointing that there doesn't seem to have been a Labour candidate in the Devon seat, particularly as Labour has been making gains in that part of the country recently. Even if not, people should have the right to vote Labour if they want - forget candidate contracts, I think there should be a contract that Regional Directors / CLP chairs are required to do everything possible to select candidates for these seats.
4:29 pm, December 17, 2011
"but a national calibre politician"
That sort of statement may well indicate what is so wrong with politics in this country.
There are far too many MPs who want to be ministers and that is very unhealthy as they end up voting for things in order to further their career prospects rather than whether something is right or wrong.
2:25 pm, December 19, 2011
Do you have a newsletter about upcoming by-elections? I'd really like to find out how to keep abreast of what elections are coming up. I keep seeming to find out later than my colleagues.
Robert
robert.battison@democraticreform.org.uk
10:54 am, December 20, 2011
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