Last night's local authority by-elections results, which will be being analysed by Brown as he decides whether to call an election or not. My take is that these look OK but not as good as in the previous two weeks:
Portsmouth, Nelson Ward (in Labour marginal Portsmouth North constituency): Lab hold, virtually no swing with Lab up 3.1%, Con up 3.2%)
Sunderland, Washington E Ward - Con gain from Lab with a majority of about 200, they had already won another seat in the same ward this May. This ward is in Labour parliamentary stronghold Washington & Sunderland W.
Cheshire, Gowy Division - Con hold over LDs in a safe ward. Large scale tactical voting for LDs by former Lab supporters as loss of this seat would have made Cheshire County Council hung.
Northants - Corby, Lloyds Division - Lab hold with 700 majority, all major parties esp. Labour losing votes to BNP. This is in the Tories 28th highest Labour target seat.
Dover - Aylesham Ward - Labour hold with swing of over 11% - a former pit village in what was the East Kent coalfield, which is a very good Labour patch in a marginal parliamentary seat
Dover - Maxton, Elms Vale and Priory Ward - Lab hold - Labour marginal ward in a parliamentary marginal
Kent - Dover Town Division - Lab hold with a 5.5% swing to Con - safe Labour county division in a parliamentary marginal
Chester Le Street - Chester Central Ward - Labour hold
Results still to come:
Mansfield - Lindhurst ward - Independent seat
Great Yarmouth - Nelson Ward - Labour seat in a parliamentary marginal
UPDATE - http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/ now has a more full list:
Cheshire County - Gowy: C 1863, Lib Dem 1419, Lab 307, Ukip 107. (May 2005 - C 3936, Lib Dem 2666, Lab 1555). C hold. Swing 1.8% C to Lib Dem.
Chester-le-Street District - Chester Central: Lab 324, C 89, Lib Dem 81, BNP 51. (May 2007 - Two seats Lab 411, 389, C 172). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% C to Lab.
Dover District - Aylsham: Lab 661, C 108, Ind 59, No description 1. (May 2007 - Two seats Lab 831, 808, C 311, 287, No description 75). Lab hold. Swing 11.6% C to Lab.
Dover District - Maxton, Elms Vale and Priory: Lab 365, Lib Dem 274, C 252, Ind 70, Ukip 65, Ind 56. (May 2007 - Three seats Lab 733, 647, C 624, Lab 602, C 566, 545, Lib Dem 381, 296, 291, Ind 243). Lab hold. Swing 5.1% Lab to Lib Dem.
Kent County - Dover Town: Lab 1860, C 1348, Lib Dem 420, Ind 300, Ukip 256. (May 2005 - Two seats Lab 6194, 5888, 3455, 3122, Lib Dem 2658, 2255). Lab hold. Swing 5.5% Lab to C. Northamptonshire County - Lloyds: Lab 1093, C 375, Lib Dem 311, BNP 265. (May 2005 - Lab 2620, C 886, Lib Dem 707). Lab hold. Swing 3% Lab to C.
Portsmouth City - Nelson: Lab 791, C 682, Lib Dem 548, Ukip 90, Green 78, English Democrats 71 . (May 2007 - Lab 840, Lib Dem 717, C 711, English Democrats 199, Green 168). Lab hold. Swing 0.0% C to Lab.
Sunderland Borough - Washington East: C 1196, Lab 994, Lib Dem 206 . (May 2007 - C 1245, Lab 1220, Lib Dem 441, BNP 195). C gain from Lab. Swing 3.7% Lab to C.
and Andrea comments here that Mansfield was a Lab gain from Ind - Lab 339 Ind 302 LibDem 215 Con 61 Green 35
Great Yarmouth is not until next month.
ReplyDeleteMansfield is a Lab gain
ReplyDeleteAs for County byelections, it must be remembered that they were faught on GE day last time..so much higher turnout...Labour % being down is at least partly due to it
I agree these results look worrying, not least the Nazis taking our votes, but I think we are going to have to have an election soon.
ReplyDeleteWith grumblings that the american house market is close to collapse we could be in for some choppy economic times ahead. He has to go for it and not risk a doing a Calligan.
You missed a good GC last night, Luke.
ReplyDeleteWe passed a motion of no confidence in the party leadership and another one calling for the nationalisation of the top 253 monopolies in the borough of Hackney.
Only 253?
ReplyDeleteSurely there aren't 253 monopolies in Hackney? Just the Council, the Learning Trust, HVSC and a few others.
ReplyDeleteThere's probably about 250 trot micro-sects in Hackney though, so they'd make up the numbers
ReplyDeleteWorth bearing in mind that the Washington East campaign was slightly delayed by the battle to be the new candidate for the parliamentary seat (Sharon Hodgson eventually got it, though not by a great margin given that she is a sitting MP and a woman half her age did very well indeed). The Tories, from what I understand, spent a very considerable sum of money on highly professional materials in the by-election.
ReplyDeleteOne of the great advantages of an early general election is that we can include within it a pledge to introduce national spending limits, win, and then implement them with a clear mandate immediately.
If we delay, then the Tories will be outspending us ten to one in every marginal all winter, we will never win, and we are finished as a party of government because they will outspend us for the rest of time.
want Washington East more of a collapse of LD/BNP vote to Tory/?
ReplyDelete"want Washington East more of a collapse of LD/BNP vote to Tory/?"
ReplyDeleteCon +9.8
Lab +2.2
LD -5.6
BNP (6.3 in May) not standing
Re the BNP one ... my observations have been that in Manchester c half their vote comes from NON VOTERS and the rest largely from the most right wing others and the Lib Dems. If you take out half their vote (as previous non voters) they don't seem to gain anything much from Labour when you do the maths.
ReplyDeleteWould this insight change your assertion that most of their votes came from Labour?