3 polls all basically saying the same thing - Tories boosted by their conference, Labour holding on to a good 39/40%, LDs nowhere, minor parties squeezed:
ICM - Lab 39%, Con 38%, LD 16%
Populus - Lab 39%, Con 36%, LD 15%
YouGov - Lab 40%, Con 36%, LD 13%
Two conclusions:
- the arguments I set out in the post below about not having an early election are reinforced
BUT
- if Cameron can give it everything he's got and deploy his tax cuts and Labour is still poll 39/40% then we will win when the election comes
We have the great advantage of time - lots of it - three years if we want - to prepare our defences in depth and win not just narrowly but a comprehensive and strategic victory.
The election speculation has been valuable in that it has got Labour onto a fighting footing and ramped up our campaign preparations, whilst smoking out the Tory policy position.
Let's stay calm and if the election isn't called still get out there on the doorstep and make this a campaigning Autumn that leaves all our marginal seats in a stronger position.
Have to disagree with you on this one Luke. There are significant downside risks to the economy which could scupper everything. At some point, the media is going to turn against Brown as it turned against Blair and that will make it harder to get the message across. Perpetual speculation about the timing of the election will reinforce this problem. It will also act like glue on the Tory Party who will be bouyed up by delay. Extra time will also give the tories the opportunity to build up decisive organisational advantages in many of the key seats. We just don't have the resources available to match them. We need to hold our collective nerve, engage the enemy more closely and go now.
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