A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Council by-elections

Tonight's council by-election results:

Castleside Ward, Derwentside DC. Ind hold. Ind 297 (82.3%,+8.3%), Con 64 (17.7%, +3.7
%). Swing of 2.3% from Con to Ind since 2007.

Townfield Ward, LB Hillingdon. Lab hold. Lab 1031 (45.3%, -12.6%), LD 506 (22.2%, +8.7%), Con 445 (19.6%, -9%), BNP 186 (8.2%, +8.2%), NF 74 (3.3%, +3.3%), Green 34 (1.5%, +1.5%). Swing 10.7% Lab to LD since 2006. This is in John McDonnell's seat.

Batchley Ward, Redditch BC. Con gain from Lab. Con 630 (39%, -12.4%), Lab 539 (33.4%, -4.3%), BNP 299 (18.5%, +18.5%), LD 121 (7.5%, -3.4%), Ind 25 (1.5%, +1.5%). Swing of 4.1% from Con to Lab since 1 May this year. This is in Jacqui Smith's extremely marginal parliamentary seat.

Uckfield New Town Ward, Wealden DC. LD hold. LD 311 (47.4%, -16%), Con 289 (44.1%, +7.5%), UKIP 56 (8.5%, +8.5%). Swing of 11.8% from LD to Con since 2007.

Arrow Valley East Division, Worcs CC. Con gain from Lab. Con 1437 (42.2%, +11.1%), Lab 1041 (30.6%, -17.3%), LD 455 (13.4%, -7.6%), BNP 367 (10.8%, +10.8%), Ind 103 (3%, +3%). This consists of another 3 district wards from Jacqui Smith's seat. Swing of 14.2% from Lab to Con.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Batchley Ward, Redditch BC. Con hold. I think this is in Jacqui Smith's extremely marginal parliamentary seat."

it's actually a Con gain from Lab as the deceased councillor was the one elected in 2006.
And yes, it's in Smith's constituency

12:30 am, July 18, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Batchley Ward, Redditch BC. Con hold. Con 630 (39%, -12.4%), Lab 539 (33.4%, -4.3%), BNP 299 (18.5%, +18.5%), LD 121 (7.5%, -3.4%), Ind 25 (1.5%, +1.5%). Swing of 4.1% from Con to Lab since 1 May this year."

G-d forbid, but isnt this a swing from Tory to BNP?

7:09 am, July 18, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

No - "swing" is the change in the first placed party's vote, added to the change in the second placed party's vote, divided by two. It is a measurement of the relative change in performance of the first and second ranked parties.

7:50 am, July 18, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The rise of the BNP is probably more worrying than any change in the winning party.

It looks like a percentage of disillusioned voters are choosing to support the the BNP - and the main three parties seem to be unable to counter this.

10:41 am, July 18, 2008

Blogger Duncan Hall said...

A couple of these results illustrate the inadequacy of the concept of swing rather well.

11:17 am, July 18, 2008

Blogger Unknown said...

Well, 'swing' is just a simplification of the many changes that happen between elections. I believe it dates from the 1960s.

It's too crude to be of much use when more than two parties are battling it out, because it's a statistical measure and is unable to tell us which voters changed their vote, and in which direction.

It's also misleading in that it implies that votes in a new election are already cast, but that some simply move from one party's pile to another. No, *all* votes are up for grabs, as any successful single-issue candidate knows. Furthermore, it can't account for significant demographic change, or for big differences in turnout among the different parties' supporters.

11:57 am, July 18, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

BNP growth, I've been predicting this for about 12 months. The BNP will have a parliamentary seat by 2010.

Labour will come third place in 2010, I'm putting money on it.

Gordon and his government are running on empty. They can spin and produce statistics all they want but everyone knows the truth.

If Gordon waits until 2010 he'll be running a country in mid recession, bust public finances and massive unemployment. And this is "No More Boom and Bust" Gordon.

6:23 pm, July 18, 2008

Blogger Merseymike said...

Still no excuse to change your policies - the BNP are wrong because of what they believe. Compromise with their ideology is not acceptable.

Not impressed with Labour at the moment, but not impressed with any of them - little to choose in terms of ideas, and the Tories certainly have no answer to current problems. Expect a very short honeymoon....

8:53 pm, July 18, 2008

Blogger Merseymike said...

What would be the performance of the Tory and labour candidates in the Hillingdon by-election, Luke? And what was the turnout?

6:00 pm, July 19, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"And what was the turnout?"


10:53 pm, July 19, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree there isn't political party that offers any real choice at the moment, which is the reason why the BNP is so popular.

A classic is the European treaty and the way in which it has been handled. Given a referendum and a subsequent yes vote then this whole issue would have died down. All the electorate wanted was a vote and since they didn't get one they feel cheated. The conservatives have still to make their views clear on this hence why so many people are turning to fringe parties for some voice. I personally don't agree with many of the BNP policies, such as capital punishment or some of the separatist views but I do share their concerns about the state of politics, immigration and the move towards European unity.

I think recent legislation with respect to positive discrimination is just another bit of policy that has made the BNP more popular. This legislation actually creates more tension and more racism.

One thing that has struck me is that not one of the political parties is willing to tackle class discrimination. Which affects all races. Is the reason why so many Afro Caribbean young men involved in crime the result of their colour or because they are from deprived areas. I can't answer this but I know all young men are the same, no matter what colour. You look at poor deprived areas and you will find high crime rates, poor schools, crap jobs and crap housing.

If you are poor it is a lot harder to get out of these ghettos. A lot of employers these days have post code blacklists and won't employ people from certain areas. The private school where I send my kids is not a white school but they are all from well off families and will all do well because of the advantages given to them by their parents.

If you really want to solve the issues on the ground then start looking at creating real jobs, building decent housing and making sure every school performs.

10:51 am, July 20, 2008

Blogger Dave Brinson said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

7:38 pm, July 20, 2008

Blogger Dave Brinson said...

Uckfield New Town used to be one of only two potential Labour targets in Wealden district: and a place where we occasionally elected Labour town councillors. We didn't field a candidate in the locals last year either, nor did we fight the long standing #1 target of Hailsham East.
It is important to focus on Labour marginal areas, but it is still a worrying state of affairs when what had been an energetic and optimistic CLP (Tom Watson's dad used to be Chair) can't field Labour candidates to at least give the voters the opportunity of expressing Labour support.

7:40 pm, July 20, 2008

Blogger Merseymike said...

Well, I agree with European unity and think that both of the main parties are far too negative about Europe. I also disagree with the right wing/populist view on immigration, and think that both main parties have leant far too much in the direction of a sop to the BNP for my liking.

8:07 pm, July 20, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

But the majority of people are concerned Mike and the majority count.

I must say it is a little strange to be so pro EU when all they represent is the interests of big business. Just look at the veggie seed licence scheme, this bit of legislation has removed thousands of traditional vegetables from our stores. Destroyed 100s of British companies and denies the consumer of choice. Is it any surprise that the major chemical companies started snapping up seed companies just before the legislation was passed.

I can name 100s more examples and the only positive is cheaper mobile phone tariffs.

9:12 pm, July 21, 2008

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