Memo to the PM

Dear Prime Minister,

there are rumours circulating that you are considering 25 March as a General Election polling day.

I would urge you not to go for that date and instead to go for 6 May.

There's one simple reason. There will be local government elections, whatever the date of the General Election, on 6 May for every seat in every London borough, for 1/3 of seats in every metropolitan borough, 1/3 of seats in 20 unitary authorities, and in 78 district councils.

A quick look at the list (http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2010.htm) shows this actually implies election of councillors in almost all of the major urban areas in England, i.e. exactly the places where Labour has the best chance of getting councillors elected.

Holding the General Election on the same day as these local elections would mean that turnout in the local elections would jump from the mid-30%s in most authorities to General Election levels of 50-60% or more if the General Election turnout goes up compared to 2005.

This is good for democracy but ought also to be particularly good for the Labour Party as our supporters have a lower propensity to turnout than Tories for socio-economic reasons i.e. the extra 15-25% of people who would vote in the local elections if they were on General Election day would disproportionately consist of Labour voters.

Thus, even if the General Election saw a Labour defeat, scheduling it for the same day as the locals could increase the number of Labour councilors elected dramatically. There is a proven linkage between the number of councillors a party has and the health of its local activist base so this would help ensure Labour started to recover faster organisationally.

In contrast, if the General Election was held in February or March and we were unlucky enough to lose, then the May 6 local elections would be likely to be a rout for Labour. Turnout would collapse as people won't want to vote twice within months. Levels of campaigning by Labour activists would collapse if our morale was low because we had just had a General Election defeat. Labour supporters would be particularly unlikely to turnout if we had just lost the national election. We know this because in 1992 council elections were held just after we lost the General Election and we got thrashed.

As Leader of the Labour Party you are not only responsible for trying to maximise the number of MPs we win, but also for rebuilding our strength in local government. Long term the two are linked.

Please do the right thing by Labour's members, supporters and councilors and council candidates by holding the General Election on the day already scheduled for council elections, 6 May.

Ed Miliband

This blog was already part of the Ed Miliband fan club after his impressive speech (earning a standing ovation) at Labour Party Spring Conference in 2008.

Even more so after the political courage he showed with his announcement on new nuclear power stations yesterday - good to see someone taking the not necessarily popular but correct decisions needed to tackle climate change.

Today's poll

Today's Populus poll:

CON 39%
LAB 29%
LD 18%

suggests there is still cause for hope for Labour supporters. This is one of the lowest leads reported for ages, takes the Tories below the psychologically important 40% barrier, and on a uniform swing only produces a Tory majority of 12.

John Trollope 1926-2009

I was very sad to read on Julian Ware-Lane's blog of the death today from cancer of our comrade John Trollope.

John was an absolute mainstay of the general election campaign in Castle Point when I was parliamentary candidate in 2005. At the then age of 79 he tirelessly went out canvassing with me and I greatly appreciated his company and good spirits on the campaign trail.

John and his wife Lorna have always been heavily involved in the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy and hence from the opposite end of the spectrum of Labour politics to me, yet both of them were amongst the most dedicated members of my campaign team.

Castle Point Labour Party has lost one of its pillars, and many members there will have lost a good friend.

My thoughts are with Lorna and their family.

Council by-election

Another quiet week with just one council by-election on Bonfire Night:

Lower Sheering Ward, Epping Forest DC. Con hold. Con 302 (76.5%, +0.6), LD 93 (23.5%, -0.6). Swing of 0.6% from LD to Con since 2007.

Two articles

Two articles worth reading:

John Mann MP in the JC on antisemitism in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania: http://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/21392/europe-must-focus-baltic-hate

and David Aaronovitch on Cameron's allies in that part of the world:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article6900013.ece

The vanishing referendum

Click on -

http://www.conservatives.com/Campaigns/Give_us_a_Referendum.aspx

oh dear – it’s vanished.

Luckily, you can look at a cached version here.

Rumours

I'm told that a tragic accident has befallen the Tory general election campaign.

The rumour is that their expensively-procurred national canvassing database has suffered a software crash and had to be taken offline.

Meanwhile they can't enter canvassing data, print off canvass sheets or access any of their historic canvassing records.

What a calamity.

I do hope they kept a paper backup somewhere.

Why I'm running for Labour's NEC

After a lot of deliberation I’ve decided to run for the Labour Party National Executive Committee (NEC). One-Member-One-Vote elections for the six Constituency Labour Party representatives are being held next year and candidates are starting to emerge.

My hesitation has been because my illness and hospitalisation this year has meant that my main goals in life are rather more personal than political at the moment: still being alive in a few years time and watching my son grow up is my number one priority, and learning to walk again comes in a strong second.

However, I think I’ve got experience, skills and judgement to offer the Party as we enter choppy political waters and have therefore decided to throw my hat in the ring for the NEC.


The Party website usefully sets out what the NEC does:
"The National Executive Committee is the governing body of the Labour Party that oversees the overall direction of the party and the policy-making process. It carries out this role by setting strategic objectives on an annual basis and meeting regularly to review the work of the party in these areas.

All members of the NEC are members of the National Policy Forum. This body oversees the development of party policy through a rolling programme of policy development. Throughout the year, NEC members participate with government ministers in Labour Party policy commissions that prepare reports on different areas of policy which are then presented to and consulted on with the party membership before going to annual conference.


This forms the basis of Labour’s general election manifesto. The NEC is also responsible for upholding the rules of the party and propriety of Labour selection processes.”

So what sort of approach would I bring to the NEC?

· Transparency. As a constituency rep on the London Regional Board I report back to CLPs in writing after every meeting. I would want to do the same on the NEC (within the obvious constraints about any confidential agenda items). Too much of what the NEC does is shrouded in byzantine secrecy. Party members need to know what their representatives are doing in their name and what the justifications are for NEC decisions.

·Objectivity and even-handedness. When the NEC takes decisions that affect ordinary members there needs to be confidence that NEC members are taking decisions based on upholding the Rulebook and natural justice, not helping out their mates or political allies. My track record dealing with difficult disciplinary and selection issues as a council Chief Whip for seven years and a regional board member shows that I will do the right thing when confronted with contentious issues, not do what is politically expedient.

· Putting members first. Where-ever possible I would want to put control in the hands of local members and CLPs and maximise local autonomy and democracy – particularly regarding selection of candidates.

· Rebuilding the Party. Whilst there are geographical pockets where CLPs are thriving and there is excellent campaigning best practice, in too much of the country we have let our organisation atrophy. I want to see a priority made of regeneration of branches and CLPs nationwide and building their campaigning capacity. Members are our greatest asset but we haven’t systematically done a recruitment drive for over a decade. I don’t accept that we can’t aspire to be a mass membership organisation. We also need to rebuild our base in local government as there is a direct link between losing councillors and losing our local campaigning base.

· Focussed on campaigning. I’ve got 20 years experience of grassroots campaigning to bring to the table. Whatever the outcome of the General Election, we need to immediately start rebuilding for the electoral challenges that will follow it. What we don’t need is a prolonged period of navel-gazing, infighting and blame. We need to learn the lessons of the 1979-1983 period when Labour spent more time attacking its own record in Government than attacking the Tories.

· Resisting a “lurch to the left”. I’m proud of what Labour has achieved in Government and want to build on it, particularly in the area of tackling poverty and inequality. In the aftermath of the General Election there will be people who want us to veer sharply to the left. I’m not one of them, I want us to align our politics and policies with where ordinary voters are, not wander off into the electoral wilderness.

· Committed to the Trade Union link. I think the current constitutional settlement in the Labour Party, whilst it could be tweaked, broadly works. I’m very wary of radical proposals such as primaries that would sever the union link, which is fundamental to keeping us grounded in the practical concerns of ordinary working people.

· Positivity. My starting point is one of loyalty to the Party leadership and respect for the hard working professional staff of the Party. I’m no pushover but unlike some candidates elected in the past I’m not seeking to get on the NEC to undermine anyone or with a starting point of suspicion and blame. If we lose the General Election we will all need to be united and work as a team to make sure our period in opposition is as short as possible.

Links

A couple of union-related links.

First off, UnionsTogether (the trade unions affiliated to Labour) are running a campaign against the Tory plan to introduce tougher requirements for strike ballots - Cameron is reported to want turnout thresholds implying that a majority of people eligible to vote would have to vote yes - not just those people actually taking part in the ballot. This is obviously designed to make it more difficult to take industrial action. You can sign up here: http://www.unionstogether.org.uk/page/s/fightback

Also my own union Unite has launched a great site about the implications of the General Election for trade union members: http://www.unite4labour.org/ This site uses the Obama campaign model of trade unionists canvassing fellow trade unionists: if you are a Unite member and a Labour Party member or supporter as well you can log in and canvass fellow union members for Labour.

Council by-election

After a couple of bumper crops, there was just the one council by-election yesterday:

Huntingdon N Ward, Huntingdonshire DC. LD hold in a split ward. LD 243 (32.6%, +2.7), Con 213 (28.6%, -18.6), UKIP 167 (22.4%, +14.1), Lab 123 (16.5%, +1.8). Swing of 10.7% from Con to LD since 2008.