A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
Last night's result:
posted by Luke Akehurst at 5:09 pm
Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012 and since 2020. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.
18 Comments:
I worked it out as 6% swing from Labour and the same from conservative?
Evens
9:07 pm, May 29, 2009
Swing = 1/2 the sum of the change in the vote of the 1st and 2nd placed parties.
In this case another far right party got 13% in 2008 but did not stand this time.
9:58 pm, May 29, 2009
Labour party slips to third place in poll
Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour party is heading for third place at the next general election for the first time in 22 years, according to a poll published Saturday.
Brown's party has long been trailing the main opposition Conservatives in opinion polls, but an ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph suggested Labour was also likely to fall behind the smaller Liberal Democrats at the next vote.
Support for the Conservatives was at 40 percent, compared to 25 percent for the Liberal Democrats and just 22 percent for Labour, suggesting Brown's party has suffered most from the ongoing revelations about MPs' expenses.
The last time Labour was in third place in any poll for a general election was in 1987, the paper said, and they did not regain power until 1997.
When respondents were asked about their voting intentions for next week's European Parliament elections, Labour again came third on 17 percent, down from the 22.5 percent they achieved in 2004.
The Conservatives were on 29 percent and the Lib Dems on 20 percent.
This reinforces the results of a Populus survey for The Times newspaper published Saturday that showed Labour on 16 percent, the Conservatives on 30 percent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 percent ahead of the European vote.
Both surveys suggest Labour is bearing the brunt of the loss of public confidence in politicians following weeks of revelations about lawmakers' expenses claims, which have so far led 13 MPs to announce their resignations.
The ICM poll found 54 percent of voters thought Labour came out worst from the revelations, compared to 13 percent naming the Conservatives and just two percent the Liberal Democrats, lead by Nick Clegg.
ICM interviewed 1,013 adults by telephone between May 27-28.
9:50 pm, May 30, 2009
My advice for labour would be to change the subject the expenses scandal is blamed on labour whatever the mp who did it. The tory leaders right hand man got caught and labour get the blame.
Bill cash gets caught and oddly labour get the blame. Even though the guy is a euroskeptic tax cutter.
The expenses scandal is blamed on labour even when it is Tories doing it.
The PM must change the subject.
My idea is have another bank bailout, invite some leaders for meetings, focus on North Korea, anything to get the press of this story.
Create a crisis for the PM to solve to show he the man of experience to deal with the real crisis issues.
The funny thing is Kirkbride and Mackay have helped the Tories by keeping the expenses scandal in the papers. Mackay was an adviser to the tory leader, and yet it was the tories who seem to have benefited from him being in the news.
10:56 pm, May 30, 2009
Labour have failed the working classes, in 1997 a Chancellor promised no more boom and bust!
He basked in the credit, borrowing boom and astronomical housing inflation claiming it was sustainable growth. He failed to have the economy regulated. World wide recession or none it would have lead to a crash and domestic recession any way!
Housing inflation is a false economy and does no one any good unless you are a rich property developer, Spivvy Estate Agent, solicitor and Tory bankers!
Labour needs to look after its own class as well as the Tories look after their own. Instead Labour forgets its own class and looks after the Tory ones!
12:26 pm, May 31, 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oci3uwpb0H0&feature=related
12:42 am, June 01, 2009
To be honest I'm sick of hearing about expenses. Resolve it and move on and start running the country.
The UK is in a right state at the moment and we need a change in direction.
The way things are going we are going to see massive tax increases combined with massive cuts in public services....this is not going to be met with cheers from the British tax payer. If anything it will force the UK back into a deep recession.
Brown has to go now and he needs to be replaced by someone who knows what they are doing.
11:31 pm, June 01, 2009
Dirty Euro - Could Kim Jong-Il play Galtieri to Brown's Thatcher?
2:37 pm, June 02, 2009
Brown is actually on friendly terms with Thatcher!
They both have something in common, as they both messed this country up!
8:43 pm, June 02, 2009
Brown has been a disaster. He is the worst leader for 50 years.
People don't seem to realise what the cost of this bailout will be. There are going to be huge tax increases, massive cuts in essential services and the consequent loss of jobs in both private and public sector.
This whole expenses disaster is just a convenient distraction from the real issues that face this country. How are we going to fund our NHS, our schools etc etc consider the mess we are in. Should we be having a referendum on Europe as promised by Blair and Brown. Immigration, evironmental policy and taxation.....these are the issues that will be felt by every man, woman and child...
MPs need second homes, they have to be maintained and if we want a parliament open to all then this is the cost.....people need to accept this. Yes there are a small minority claiming for duck houses, moats and porn.....but this will always happen....just sack them and move on.
There are so many issues but none are being dealt with.
10:44 pm, June 02, 2009
The PM should hold his reshuffle tommorrow, as this would take over the news agenda and so change the story and so he was changing.
Also than bank problem has been solved by the PM not created by him. Look the pound is going up again.
11:28 pm, June 02, 2009
Its a mess the high pound will only make imports even more then exports less and cut down on Tourist revenue!
The Banks we want that money accounted for and a balance sheet available for members of the public!
Another reshuffle and more prats go out and more come in!
5:12 pm, June 03, 2009
GORDON BROWN MUST GO - and NOW!!
If the Labour Party does not get rid of Gordon Brown after the drubbing the Party is expected to get in Thursday's County and Euro Elections at the next General Election it will be heading for an electoral rout worse than that which the Party suffered at its nadir in the 1983 General Election....
I plead with Senior Members of the Labour Party for gods sake sack Brown or face the unimaginably disasterous political and electoral whirlwind and crisis that will engulf the Labour Party and will result in the marginalisation of Progressive politics for many years to come....
You, I and everyone else in the Labour Party owe it to both the UK Electorate and the Party to extinguish Gordon Browns Premiership and his Utterly failed out of touch and discredited brand of New Labour.....
5:40 pm, June 03, 2009
Dirty Euro, you are living in a fantasy world. The banking crisis has been sorted by spending huge sums of our money...all of which has to be clawed back in tax hikes and spending cuts.
Please try and find a savings account that pays a reasonable dividend....or find a new mortage that is just 1% above base rate....you can't and the reason is the banks are milking us dry.
Expect massive cuts in public services no matter who is in power. There is no escaping the fact the country is skint and tax revenues are falling....thanks to Brown and his appalling government.
6:48 pm, June 03, 2009
A high pound proves the economy is doing well Id you want to live in a country with a weak currency try india or china. Nice place to live.
Rich no you are living in fantasy land, the banking crisis was not created by labour it was created by banks. It was not the fault of labour government. It is your tory heroes right wing ideology that created the crisis. You are living in fantasy world for blaming the ideology that saved the banks instead of the banks and the tory ideology that caused the problem.
Who should I take the word of, nobel prize winners complementing the government or you.
10:18 pm, June 03, 2009
Well Dirty Euro. Wait until you start seeing your services cut, the NHS privatised, jobs being losts and rising taxes and then come back and say it was all worth while.
Labour didn't cause the mess but they created the conditions that started it. Same bloody difference in my opinion.
Brown created the FSA, he created the housing boom all of which started this whole mess.
We might have saved the banks but it is the wider economy that is going to pay the price.
10:42 pm, June 03, 2009
No most of the debts were bought from the USA. RBS bought huge amounts of toxic debt form the USA. I know you are not allowed to say that, as apparently the labour party created the global crisis rather the world's largest economy. Toxic debt was created in the USA. In 2004 President Bush got rid of restrictions on predatory lending on some right wing drivel basis of freeing up the economy, that is where this crisis is from. I know no one is allowed to say that, as it is cliched to claim Bush did this. Plus it is easier to blame a labour government for the RBS and other UK banks buying US toxic debt created by Bush.
Don't worry I am sure cameron and tories will use any excuse they can to privatize the NHS education, and destroy public services for working and middle classes on some logic of economic freedom. We can all end up like american rednecks loving our freedom to not have public services.
You will have a great day today but people like you will suffer most but you will never realise it as you are easy for the elites to fool. You will blame left wing policies all the time.
11:26 pm, June 03, 2009
Dirty Euro....the RBS has nothing to do with it. The fact is our whole economy has been built on debt and over inflated property.
The fact credit has dried up means the wider economy has to shrink to live within its means. Britain was running on empty way before the credit problems in the USA.
I like many other people run small businesses and we sensed economic problems a year before the credit crunch first hit. We pleaded with government then to start working harder for small businesses but Brown did nothing.
I've never known public finances in such a mess. I've never seen so many vacant factories and shops. This is a disaster and its getting worse week on week and all Labour are doing is arguing about who should be leader.
Dirty Euro....the biggest threat to the NHS is the European Union. It will be this unelected superstate that will in the end control what we can spend on public services. David Cameron will not privatise the NHS, if anything more of it will be brought back into state ownership....such as cleaning services etc etc.
10:42 pm, June 04, 2009
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