There were a couple of by-elections last Thursday which I did not report as I was away:
Christchurch Ward, Allerdale BC. Con hold. Con 466 (66.1%, +0.9), LD 131 (18.6%, +18.6), Green 108 (15.3%, +15.3). Swing of 8.9% from Con to LD since 2007.
Cossall and Kimberley Ward, Broxtowe. Con hold. Con 757 (37.6%, +8.7), Lab 731 (36.3%, +3.5), LD 524 (26.0%, -3.3). Swing of 2.6% from Lab to Con since 2007.
Re Christchurch Ward - I am almost tempted to start keeping track of elections where we do not field candidates. It is most disappointing.
ReplyDeleteThe weird thing about the Christchurch result is that each of the parties listed saw a gain on 2007 so who lost? Furthermore, if the Conservative vote was plus by 0.9% how could there be a swing from them to anyone else or is my old grammar school maths letting me down?
ReplyDeleteLabour didn't stand in Christchurch this time but did in 2007.
ReplyDeleteSwing is the mean of the change in the first and second place parties' votes. So if the top party goes up 5% and the second party goes up 10% the swing is 10 minus 5 divided by two, from the party with the smaller increase to the one with the larger increase. Or if top party gains 10% and 2nd party loses 5%, swing is 10+5 divided by 2.
Thanks for the explanation, Luke. Why ever is Labour not fielding candidates? Surely it is important to be there for one's supporters even if the chances of electoral success are grim.
ReplyDeletenote Medway Tory to stand down after 13 days (in the seat we lost)
ReplyDeletenew by election
hes a special constable !!!!
lets win it this time
We really should have stood in Allerdale, is it in the Workington or Penrith part of the borough?
ReplyDeleteThe swing in Broxtowe would see a Labour MP back in Parliament
The Allerdale ward is in Cockermouth - thus part of the Workington constituency.
ReplyDeleteIn contrast to our excellent results in Barrow and Copeland, Labour's performance there in May was mediocre - despite a sitting MP who appears to be quite well liked. Maybe this is another small sign all is not totally well :-(