A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Council by-election results

Last night's council by-election results:

Worksop South, Bassetlaw DC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 815 (52%, +5.3), Con 669 (42.7%, -10.6), LD 84 (5.4%, +5.4). Swing of 7.9% from Con to Lab since May this year.

East Chesterton Division, Cambs CC. LD hold. LD 832 (40.9%, +5.1), Lab 663 (32.6%, +17.6), Con 334 (16.4%, -8.4), Green 117 (5.7%, -9), Camb Socialists 53 (2.6%, +2.6), UKIP 37 (1.8%, -8). Swing of 6.3% from LD to Lab since 2009.

Stanwix Urban Ward, Carlisle CC. Con hold. Con 888 (57%, +3.6), Lab 488 (31.3%, -2.8), Green 96 (6.1%, -6.4), EngDem 85 (5.5%, +5.5). Swing of 3.2% from Lab to Con since May this year.

New River Ward, LB Hackney. Con hold. Con 1567 (57.2%, +23.6), Lab 1007 (36.8%, -0.7), Green 77 (2.8%, -10.4), LD 61 (2.2%, -13.5), Ind 26 (0.9%, +0.9). Swing of 12.2% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Cremorne Ward, RB Kensington & Chelsea. Con hold. Con 602 (41.2%, -9), Lab 583 (39.9%, +16.8), LD 180 (12.3%, -9.6), Green 51 (3.5%, +3.5), UKIP 46 (3.1%, -1.8). Swing of 12.9% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Earl's Court Ward, RB Kensington & Chelsea. LD gain from Con. LD 703 (44.8%, +24.8), Con 594 (37.8%, -6), Lab 151 (9.6%, -8.7), Ind 49 (3.1%, -2.5), Ind 29 (1.8%, +1.8), Green 26 (1.7%, -10.6), UKIP 18 (1.1%, +1.1). Swing of 15.4% from Con to LD since May this year.

Park Ward, Knowsley MBC. Lab hold. Lab 650 (86%, +6.1), LD 70 (9.3%, -10.8), Con 36 (4.8%, +4.8). Swing of 8.5% from LD to Lab since May this year.

Cadley Ward, Preston. LD hold. LD 721 (43.4%, -3.3), Lab 476 (28.6%, +8.4), Con 465 (28%, -5.1). Swing of 5.9% from LD to Lab since May this year.

Worksop West Division, Notts CC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 1457 (61.5%, +28.6), Con 755 (31.9%, -18.9), LD 88 (3.7%, -12.6), Ind 56 (2.4%, +2.4), Ind 13 (0.5%, +0.5). Swing of 23.8% from Con to Lab since 2009.

If the Hackney result looks a bit strange compared to the overall movement to Labour, let me explain, as I was Labour's Agent. New River is completely polarised between the mainly Labour-voting Woodberry Down Estate (near Manor House tube) and Tory voting Chassidic Jewish areas of Stamford Hill. On a General Election turnout of 60%, Labour can win - picking up 2 of 3 seats in the ward in May. On a local election turnout of 38% the Tories win - even though we were getting about 70% of the vote in 2 of the 4 polling districts. The Chassidic community are enthusiastic voters and a large percentage of the community vote by post. About 300 extra names had come on the register since May. Tory Councillor Simche Steinberger told me the high Chassidic turnout was a protest against Labour creating a Conservation Area to cover Cazenove Road (not in the ward but near it) - the Chassidic community fear that tighter planning constraints will stop them building residential extensions to house their often very large families. Congratulations to new Tory Councillor Benzion Papier, who told me he is a reader of this blog, and to Labour candidate Jonathan Burke, who fought a very vigorous campaign and increased our vote relative to the 2006 and 2004 results in the ward. Thank you to both Oona King and Ken Livingstone for bringing teams to campaign yesterday. I have no idea what happened to the LD and Green votes - they obviously read our "2 horse race" bar charts!


Anonymous moshe weinberger said...

Well done to Benzion Papier on his election and to boot he's a nice bloke as well

1:29 pm, September 17, 2010

Blogger Merseymike said...

A pretty good set of results. The Cambridge result is interesting - a ward which isn't usually that good for us and a very credible result

2:37 pm, September 17, 2010

Blogger Edward Carlsson Browne said...

I was the ward organiser for the Cambridge by-election. The ward hasn't been that good for us in recent years, but that's partly been because we haven't had enough activists to work it properly.

Luckily, we've had an uptick in activity recently and as it's a by-election we were able to get in help from the rest of the CLP.

So were the other parties, of course, but I think we utilised those resources very well. We knocked on just about every accessible door in the ward at least once and on several others twice.

We also had by far the best candidate on offer and the best candidate we've had in the ward for years. She's well known as a local campaigner (largely on disability issues, as she's a wheelchair user, but also on transport and anti-social behaviour issues,) has lived in the ward for ages and connects with voters very well.

It's also worth noting that the Lib Dems heavily pushed the message that it was between them and the Tories and a Labour vote was wasted. I think a lot of people bought that (and I was certainly surprised by the weakness of the Tories - up until a week ago I had them as favourites).

Given a little more time to prepare for the city elections next year, I think we can win this one. Which is good as if we can get the city council seats from this ward and all the ones more favourable to Labour, we can take back the council.

3:00 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Dave said...

So what _really_ happened in Hackney then. Strangest result I've seen in a long while...

3:44 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Luke,Thanks for that explanation about Hackney,the result in Worksop is worthy of note a 24% swing,what the hell caused that one? and as for Park Ward,LOL,
Well done to both the candidate and the ward oraganiser in the Cambridge by election,I shall take note of his comments and place a large wager with Bet 365 on the result of this ward next year!!

4:03 pm, September 17, 2010

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

The New River vote is not surprising to people who understand the demographics of Stamford Hill. It is very similar to the Springfield result in 2007. There are about 1500 Chassidic Jewish voters in New River Ward so if the Tories really work the ward hard and run a Chassidic candidate - which they did - they get just over 1500 votes.

In May the turnout of the rest of the electorate was vastly higher and the Tories mistakenly focussed on trying to gain wards like Queensbridge and De Beauvoir.

4:18 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could a factor be that the labour-loyal are now well and truly disillusioned with the ruling party's regeneration hype compared against the actual outcome, a case of the Woodberry Down Blues?

4:20 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha·sid or Has·sid also Chas·sid (äsd, ô-, hä-)
n. pl. Ha·si·dim or Has·si·dim also Chas·si·dim (ä-sdm, ô-, hä-)
A member of a Jewish mystic movement founded in the 18th century in eastern Europe by Baal Shem Tov that reacted against Talmudic learning and maintained that God's presence was in all of one's surroundings and that one should serve God in one's every deed and word.

The Free Dictionary by Farlex.

Yes, I had to look it up. I bet a lot of you didn't know what it meant either!

4:37 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What kind of mandate does a councillor have who is elected on only 800 votes? Surely this is not democracy?

4:45 pm, September 17, 2010

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Anon 4.20pm no the count shows you outcome by polling district and the 2 affected by regeneration of W Down Estate were v heavily Labour (c 70pc)

6:36 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well done to Cambridge Comrades

from County Standard

Really Excellent Result

County Standard Blog

For peace & Socialism in the Countryside

9:24 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Put the Chassidics in charge of the whole caboodle - housing and education.

These boys and girls are performers.

Whatever they know, take it, distill it, propogate it. Cameron's local visiion stuff and then some.

Never a chance in a million years of Labour doing anything, otherwise.

9:31 pm, September 17, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

who are the cambridge Socialist ???? candidate

well done ! Good Result !!!!

10:55 pm, September 17, 2010

Blogger Barrybbb said...

What I find astonishing about the Hackney New River vote is the collapse of the Lib Dem vote from 693 and 456 in May to 61 on September 16.

I can understand that many Lib Dem voters arent happy with the Coalition and that the Lib Dems didnt do much work in the campaign but I cant believe its just these factors that explains their dismal showing. Luke I know that on Friday you too couldent understand this but have you had any further thoughts on this?

8:30 am, September 19, 2010

Anonymous Billy said...

Thanks for all this - found the Stamford Hill stuff in your area fascinating.

We're just recovering from the wonderful results in Norwich. Had a great time in Stoke Newington a year or two ago - good luck with the NEC - who elase should I vote for - Ken?

5:32 pm, September 20, 2010


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