A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left.
Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
AV and the PLP
The first of my weekly columns for Progress - on AV and the PLP:
I admire your optimism, but YouGov show 54% for parties of the right, and only 46% support for parties of the left, even on the heroic assumption that the SNP. PlaidC, and Greens are on the left.
That's at a time when net disapproval of a right-wing Government runs at 19%, so it seems reasonable to suggest that in more 'average' times, the right has a lead.
Of course, it's all fuzzy and varies from issue to issue. There's probably a strong majority for a redistributive, moderately egalitarian, strong on services but tough on waste, tough on crime, tough on immigration, pragmatically Eurosceptic, policy position - not one any natural coalition (Red-Blue?!) is likely to coalesce around.
The coalition has formed, and commands support from most voters still loyal to the parties which formed it. I think the assumption that the Lib Dems will lose the 2nd place on which their AV victory over Labour depends is, in this context, foolhardy at best.
Labour appeared not to have a grip on the economy and encouraged it to get on and do what it does, but the growth was causing high housing inflation therefore pushing up borrowing and any rise in standards of living were wiped out with housing costs.
The trouble is with the exception of bank bale outs its a free market economy and the problem was not caused by Labours actions, but more to do with inactions not intervening and regulating the economy.
So the Con/Dems actually seem to be intervening to the public doing all this austerity business and taxes to supposedly tackle the deficit, so the public see the Con/Dems are actually doing something even if its not nice.
Labour need a clear strategy and clarification to the public how they are going to cut the deficit, until they do the Tories will be in power a long time!
Happy New Year Luke. I oppose the introduction of AV because I believe it will put back the cause of voting reform.
Although it would probably mean we'd never again have a majority Labour government, I think a PR system for Westminster elections would have many more advantages than disadvantages.
AV is not PR although much of the Yes campaigns rhetoric seems designed to present it as such (I'm intrigued that you accuse the No campaign of using the opposite tactic). Nor is it a step on a broad highway leading to PR. It seems to me more like a meander down a nasty little cul-de-sac.
If the AV referendum succeeds it will kill the PR debate for 25 years. There's not a chance that the voting system would again be changed until at least 4 GE had been fought under the new system. That means waiting until 2030 even to restart a proper debate.
I admire your optimism, but YouGov show 54% for parties of the right, and only 46% support for parties of the left, even on the heroic assumption that the SNP. PlaidC, and Greens are on the left.
ReplyDeleteThat's at a time when net disapproval of a right-wing Government runs at 19%, so it seems reasonable to suggest that in more 'average' times, the right has a lead.
Of course, it's all fuzzy and varies from issue to issue. There's probably a strong majority for a redistributive, moderately egalitarian, strong on services but tough on waste, tough on crime, tough on immigration, pragmatically Eurosceptic, policy position - not one any natural coalition (Red-Blue?!) is likely to coalesce around.
The coalition has formed, and commands support from most voters still loyal to the parties which formed it. I think the assumption that the Lib Dems will lose the 2nd place on which their AV victory over Labour depends is, in this context, foolhardy at best.
Labour appeared not to have a grip on the economy and encouraged it to get on and do what it does, but the growth was causing high housing inflation therefore pushing up borrowing and any rise in standards of living were wiped out with housing costs.
ReplyDeleteThe trouble is with the exception of bank bale outs its a free market economy and the problem was not caused by Labours actions, but more to do with inactions not intervening and regulating the economy.
So the Con/Dems actually seem to be intervening to the public doing all this austerity business and taxes to supposedly tackle the deficit, so the public see the Con/Dems are actually doing something even if its not nice.
Labour need a clear strategy and clarification to the public how they are going to cut the deficit, until they do the Tories will be in power a long time!
Happy New Year Luke. I oppose the introduction of AV because I believe it will put back the cause of voting reform.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it would probably mean we'd never again have a majority Labour government, I think a PR system for Westminster elections would have many more advantages than disadvantages.
AV is not PR although much of the Yes campaigns rhetoric seems designed to present it as such (I'm intrigued that you accuse the No campaign of using the opposite tactic). Nor is it a step on a broad highway leading to PR. It seems to me more like a meander down a nasty little cul-de-sac.
If the AV referendum succeeds it will kill the PR debate for 25 years. There's not a chance that the voting system would again be changed until at least 4 GE had been fought under the new system. That means waiting until 2030 even to restart a proper debate.
That's why I say No to AV...