A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Closing the gap?

Latest opinion poll from Sweden's general election campaign (Temo poll, published 22/8, data collected 14-20 Aug, sample of 1,780):

Social Democrats - 37.7% (+ 2.9% from previous week's poll)
Left Party (former communists) - 3.6% (-1.1%)
Greens - 5.3% (-0.5%)

Moderates (i.e. Conservatives) - 28.0% (-0.6%)
right-wing Liberals - 9.8% (-0.4%)
Centre Party (farmers) - 6.1% (+0.4%)
Christian Democrats - 5.4% (-0.2%)

So it looks like the Social Democrats have some traction, consolidating their vote on the left and taking a little bit of support direct from the right. This % score is only a little less than their vote in the 2002 election.

BUT the big problem from these figures is what happens to the former communist Left Party, which as recently as 1998 got 12% in a general election. If they dip below 4% they fall foul of the 4% clause in Swedish election law and get no seats at all, which removes a potential ally of the Social Democrats from the parliamentary maths. 4.01% means they get approx. 4% of MPs, 3.99% means they get none at all. That 0.02% difference could determine whether Sweden gets another Social Democrat minority government or a 4-party centre-right coalition.

Traditionally the Social Democrats used to ensure the Left Party stayed in parliament by tacitly encouraging Social Democrat party members to vote tactically for the Left Party - the so called "comrade four percents". Will they need to do this again?

I await the first "Akehurst advocates tactical vote for commies" comment ...


Anonymous internationaleditor said...

Today's Ruab poll is even more positive, though it's very close:


5:05 pm, August 24, 2006

Anonymous Duncan said...

Will give you a report back from Sweden next week (off to do a bit of campaigning on saturday).

6:40 pm, August 24, 2006

Anonymous Andrea said...

Great. Hopefully the left bloc can make it in the end!

Any news from Austria (they'll have their GE next month IIRC)?

7:50 pm, August 24, 2006

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like the SDs are in a bit of a bind: threat of the right is rallying lefty voters to their flag but that is of limited utility!

Just goes to show - taking votes off the right is the way to win.

See http://fourthterm.net for more on this story too

9:29 am, August 25, 2006

Anonymous Anonymous said...

In which way are you not bourgeois?

7:26 pm, August 26, 2006

Blogger Red Lazarus said...

Have you heard about the Liberal spying scandal? The liberals have been caught breaking into the Social Democrats (don't call them "SD"s - that's the abbreviation for the fascists over here). Big scandal that only gets bigger, will result in the resignation of the leader, only question being if it's before or after next weeks election. Anyway it looks like the liberal vote is collapsing (it was beginning to suffer in any case), which increases the chances of the left bloc. However, my feeling was that it was heading our way in any case, and this scandal could well result in a lower turnout - which always helps the right.

On the other hand, the figures for the Left Perty are steadily recovering, and my guess is that it will be at about the same level as 2002 by election day. Which should mean victory for the government side in any case. Then the real fun begins ...

2:42 pm, September 07, 2006

Blogger Red Lazarus said...

That is, the Liberals have broken into SAP-net, the Social Democrats intranet. That got lost in my previous post.

2:44 pm, September 07, 2006


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