A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Compass Plebiscite

Compass has reported the outcome of its massaged ballot on the Deputy Leadership - sent out with a recommendation to vote Cruddas:

Hilary Benn – 18.75%
Jon Cruddas – 53%
Peter Hain – 7.5%
Harriet Harman – 12%
Alan Johnson – 3.89%
Not Supporting Any Candidate – 2.7%
Spoils – 2.16%
Turnout = 29.9% of about 2,000 members

So we now know Cruddas has a guaranteed 320 votes. I make that 0.0012% of Labour's electoral college (1/3 of the electoral college X 320/178,000 X 2 if we assumed a 50% turnout). A highly significant marker...

Will they re-run the ballot now there is a sixth candidate - Hazel - who they didn't even put on the ballot paper? (or was that a political decision rather than an accident of timing?)

And why did AJ do so badly? I would have thought his stance on constitutional issues like PR was popular with Compassites.

I'm holding my breath for more dramatic and unpredictable headlines such as CLPD backs McDonnell, Jack Dromey backs Harriet Harman, Wales Labour Party backs Peter Hain, etc.

19 Comments:

Blogger HenryG said...

Luke won't many trade unions be recommending who their members should vote for? I hope for your sake that there aren't many Compass members in Walthamstow!

Oh and you mention Compass backing Cruddas would be like Wales Labour Party backing Peter Hain...which reminds me, did you see in the Times diary section today? Apparently Hain's CLP have invited Benn to speak to them! What an endorsement.

3:15 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

The membership of 2,000 if equally distributed would suggest 3 members per CLP. Maybe more in London so six in Walthamstow, three of whom voted Cruddas (and I can name 2 of them - both likely to be seeking selection themselves)?

3:41 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Sham said...

Ain't it funny how the Neal Lawson fan club are quite happy to diss the recent You Gov poll, yet seem to be taking this blatantly biased Compass poll as gospel!

Here are some facts:

Compass - 29.9% of 2000 members of their own narrow organisation responded to the poll
= approx 600 people.

You Gov - 589 Labour Party members + 662 levy-paying trade unionists
= 1,115 people (excluding those who are members of both).

As you can see, the sample size of the You Gov poll is double that of the Compass one, with a more representative pool.

Will those who slagged off the You Gov poll now do the same to the Compass ballot?

Hmmmmmm, I wonder ...

3:46 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger HenryG said...

I didn't slag off the YouGov poll Sham. You can't pick and choose these things. That poll did have Cruddas 3 points ahead of Hazel though!

Luke, as a comparable grassroots network, did Labour First have a ballot of members or is there no position on the deputy (can't beleive that)? You dislike Compass for a number of reasons which you outline regularly (!) but 2000 isn't a narrow membership. Don't let your political difference distort your understanding of the situation.

What does this ballot conclude? Well is shows that Cruddas is now leading the centre-left of the party since he outpolled Peter Hain 7:1. I'm amazed Hain did so badly.

3:56 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Henry, Labour First is not taking any position on the DL election. A number of us are Hazel people, but there are also plenty of AJ supporters and some high profile potential Cruddas backers. John Spellar doesn't think the position of Deputy Leader should exist.

2,000 isn't a narrow membership but it isn't a mass movement that will decisively affect Walthamstow or any other selection either.

4:03 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger HenryG said...

Sometime I think that John Spellar was possibly right!

4:12 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Peter said...

Dear Luke

In the light of your observations about Johnson's relatively low poll despite his PR tendencies, perhaps Compass should next ballot its members on electoral reform?

I'm writing a piece for the next issue of Chartist on PR - the commoditisation of politics or as the Compassites might call it turbo-politics. Vroom, vroom.

The current issue of Chartist #225 March/April 2007 is now on sale, order on line at http://www.chartist.org.uk

4:47 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger HenryG said...

Good idea Peter, but what form of voting would it use for the ballot!

5:04 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous Ian G said...

I'm not sure either the Compass poll or the YouGov poll are particularly relevant as predictors of how people will vote. Considering Hazel Blears did so poorly in the YouGov poll you had certainly better hope not!

Considering how little influence you claim Compass has, you don't half spend a lot of time slagging it off!

5:29 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous compass watch said...

Luke, some tit called Sam Tarry's had a go at you over on the Compass website, and he's also laid in to Hazel Blears.

He finished by spouting this nauseating bullshit: "people like Jon [Cruddas] will ride on the wings of the Phoenix that is Compass - already burning brightly as it rises from the ashes of new Labour". Puke! Pass the sick-bucket!

What a wanker.

5:31 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous Chris Cowley said...

God you people are wankers. Reading the comments on this website is like what it must have been like watching Nero practice on the violin. I know you guys are inward-focused, but have you no idea what is going on out there in the real world and how much Labour is now distrusted, despised and reviled?

5:34 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous grimupnorth said...

Luke, CLPD HAS already backed John McDonnell. As have Welsh labour Grassroots,Campaign For Socialism in Scotland.UNISON Left, AMICUS Unity Gazette, T and G Broad Left,and ASLEF. You ay sneer as much as you wish but it's lots of labour activists.And probably a lot more than are in Compass.

6:38 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Bob Piper said...

Henryg at 4.12pm: I can assure you that John Spellar is extremely right!

6:57 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous Alexs said...

Just on the YouGov poll, a lot of the Labour Party members doubled up as TU members - I know I did.

On the compass ballot it was to deciee who compass would support and campaign for, it was not meant to be a representative opinion poll.

9:56 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Blogger Chris Paul said...

Wales Labour Party ... Hain. Is that humour? How do you think Haze would have done?

Sham: yes (obviously) the Compass ballot stinks. Some of us told them that on the record before they did it. But the YouGov one is a disreputable piece of pooh and no-one has successfully defended the construction of it.

11:34 pm, March 07, 2007

 
Anonymous TheBeautifulNorth said...

Grimupnorth: Clearly I wish Comrade McDonnell all the best. But would you be able to provide the details of the numbers of people at each of the meetings or in each of the postal polls for the affiliated or ad hoc bodies you mentioned? And if this totals less than the compass turnout or the yougov sample explain your strange bullishness?

12:31 pm, March 08, 2007

 
Anonymous grimupnorth said...

i wasn't being bullish, just stating facts. my point was john's support much more wide-ranging than Compass. and trade union support particularly vital, imho

5:03 pm, March 08, 2007

 
Anonymous STOP THE RIGHT WING BIGOTS said...

You have got to be the biggest bunch of ugly twats i the political blogosphere. What a bunch of cunts. How can that ginger tosser represent the people of Hackney - what an utter disgrace. Working class people are sick of cunts like you and all your arrogant and out of touch right-wing friends. Bl;ears supporters - another robotic, new Labour freak. What a loser.

2:25 am, April 14, 2007

 
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1:15 am, August 07, 2008

 

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