A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Rebellion stats

Who rebelled last night?

By region of the PLP:
38% of Eastern region Labour MPs
34% of London MPs (45% of inner London MPs - largely the generation originally elected in the '80s when the London party was very left wing but only 25% of the newer generation of MPs from more marginal outer London)
32% of Scottish MPs - (impact of SNP threat - with a cluster around Lothian region impacted by Nigel Griffiths decision and challenge locally from LDs)
32% of South East MPs
30% of Yorkshire MPs
28% of Welsh MPs
25% of North East MPs (traditionally a rightwing region in Labour terms)
24% of East Midlands MPs (reflects historic marginality)
23% of South West MPs (low score reflects economic dependence of Lab seats in the region on defence)
21% of West Midlands MPs (33% in Birmingham, 17% outside Birmingham - reflecting moderate tradition in the CLPs there and historic electoral marginality)
18% of North West MPs (mix of economic dependence of the region on defence and traditional marginality of region meaning they actually care what voters think)

By marginality:
30% of Labour MPs in the top 27 Lib Dem targets rebelled
but only 24% of those in the top 100 Tory targets
rest of the PLP in "safe" seats: 28%

- so people up against the Tories know unilateralism is a vote loser, those where LDs are the threat are obviously conscious of losing votes to the left

By generation - old guard not new:

60% of Labour MPs who have announced they are retiring
only 22% of the 2005 intake

Not, on the whole Brownites - so Gordon's personal appeal for a pro-government vote worked. I can see Andrew Smith and Tony Lloyd were off-side but Nick Brown voted with the government despite having expressed his opposition earlier in the year, and only 2 of the 17 2001 intake of MPs who called on Blair to resign last year voted with the rebels (both of them Scots).

Gratuitous Nye Bevan quote of the day:

"I knew this morning that I was going to make a speech that would offend, and even hurt, many of my friends. I know that you are deeply convinced that the action you suggest is the most effective way of influencing international affairs. I am deeply convinced that you are wrong. It is therefore not a question of who is in favour of the Hydrogen bomb, but a question of what is the most effective way of getting the damn thing destroyed. It is the most difficult of all problems facing mankind. But if you carry this resolution and follow out all its implications — and do not run away from it — you will send a British Foreign Secretary, whoever he may be, naked into the conference chamber. ... And you call that statesmanship? I call it an emotional spasm."
Speech at the Labour Party Conference, 4 October, 1957, against unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Gratuitous link to something that cheered me up of the day: New Statesman says: "As he prepares to take power, Gordon Brown has served notice to the Labour Party that he will make no compromises on security and defence issues."


Blogger Owen said...

Gratuitous link to something that cheered me up of the day: New Statesman says: "As he prepares to take power, Gordon Brown has served notice to the Labour Party that he will make no compromises on security and defence issues."

More lucrative contracts on the way, you mean?

11:04 am, March 15, 2007

Anonymous gordonprentice4deputy said...

Gordon Brown is in big trouble now ,largely thanks to Blair.And is own desperation for power.Nye Bevan thought the Tories were "vermin"and would never have coluuded with them to get policy through. What a nausesatingspectavle it was watching hagueand Fox agree with "our" Party. You must be very proud. I'm one of the thousands who are horrified.

2:38 pm, March 15, 2007

Anonymous Duncan said...

Nye was wrong then. But he was nowhere near as wrong then as you are now.

6:03 pm, March 15, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

aside from the payroll vote...95 Labour MPs backed the Jon Trickett amendment, 98 stuck with Tone.

7:41 pm, March 15, 2007

Blogger noel said...

YAY! Forward to nuclear oblivion (with America's permission natch) the new slogan for next election!

7:51 pm, March 15, 2007

Blogger Chris Paul said...

Ahhhhh. As Owen says ... you really should stop this or it's cash for questions, cash for bloggers, cash for corruption, cash for armageddon (rapture) ... Lukey ridiculous.

3:48 am, March 16, 2007

Blogger Peter said...

Dear Luke

How was the vote won? Didn't you say that the Government would not need the support of the Tories? Not a word of contrition?

9:34 am, March 16, 2007

Anonymous Ted Harvey said...

" That's enough about Trident". Luke you are so, so, wrong about that. The size of the rebellion, the need for Tory votes and the Governments inept, hypocrital and incoherent stance to try to justify this decision at this time means that it will run and run unfortunately.

Indications of this include you're own posting of entrail-digging 'facts' to show the huge rebellion was 'really not all that bad... no really'. Then your posting on the need to get tough about MPs who rebel and then you rather unwisely quote the New Statesman on Brown:

"As he prepares to take power, Gordon Brown has served notice to the Labour Party that he will make no compromises on security and defence issues"

All indicators of an unfortunate and suicidal sustaining of the shuffling along oblivious to familiar and electorally fatal intolernace from the Right and consequent widening dissension from elswhere.

11:58 am, March 16, 2007

Anonymous former Brownite said...

I believe the John McDonnell campaign has been boosted hugely by the Trident rebellion.Gordon Brown's arrogance and utter disdain for what the Party thinks will do for him in the end.At this rate, MPs will be queuing up to nominate an alternative

3:08 pm, March 16, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is victory for centrist politics and an absolutely crushing defeat for the unilateralists who are in the minority in both parliament and the wider population.

Some people evidently have a problem with democracy.

9:00 am, March 17, 2007

Anonymous Duncan said...

"This is victory for centrist politics"

Well then, why don't you go the whole hog and propose a 'national government'. A real victory for centrist politics would be to get rid of elections altogether and just have sensible people like you make all the decisions.

11:55 am, March 17, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What you want is a minority view (that is your view) to win through - despite the fact the elected representatives of the people have spoken.

Well, why should your argument win, even though you have only a minority of the public on board?

This isn't a one party state - it isn't only the Labour Party in Parliament. The government should have no shame in accepting the votes of the opposition on issues of this importance.

When the country has a majority Michael Meacher/John McDonnell Labour government you can cancel Trident's replacement.

Fair enough?

Now go away and prepare for government.

If you can't wait for Meacher and McDonnell's pigs to fly, go and live in Cuba. I believe they run the sort of socialist democracy you would enjoy, and, as I understand it, they got rid of their nuclear missles in the 1960s.

9:30 pm, March 17, 2007

Anonymous Duncan said...

"Go to Cuba" - is that the best you can do? The spirit of Thatcher is not dead!!!

10:19 pm, March 20, 2007


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