Not our best poll ever
Ouch.
Communicate Research in the Indie has Labour on 27% (down 4), the Tories on 36% (up 1), the Lib Dems on 22% (up 2), and others on 11% (SNP 4%, GRN 3%, BNP 2%, UKIP 1%, PC 1%).
There's no point pretending this is anything other than awful for Labour.
But it's also not good for the Tories, who despite our mid-term slump are becalmed in the mid-30s and would only just scrape a majority on these figures.
My hunch is that the immediate aftermath of the leadership election could give us enough of a boost to put us back just in front. Translating that into a sustained recovery will depend on whether Brown's policy initiatives are sufficiently bold to capture the public imagination.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 9:38 am
17 Comments:
Your hunch is wrong. Labour won't do much better with a new PM when that PM is going to be Gordon Brown. Now on the other hand, if David Miliband was PM.....
10:04 am, April 24, 2007
I remember the Tories falling below even the Lib Dems in an opinion poll and then coming back to win an election.
Once people have a choice between Gordon Brown with his excellent running of the economy and David Cameron, who seems to jump on any passing bandwagon, I think things will be different.
The poll is also mid-term and is skewed for Wales and Scotland where it is a Labour v Nationalist choice. Westminster will always be Labour v Tories.
10:28 am, April 24, 2007
Communicate Research so far seem to have a fairly patchy track record as a pollster. My recollection is that their monthly polls have shown much bigger swings than others, and there has been criticism of, and changes to, their methodology. Better wait for other more main-stream polls to get a real sense of direction.
However the trend of Labour losing at the expense of 'others' rather than to the Tories seems to be consistent.
Door step reactions also leave me wondering about these polls. We're getting a significant number of 'backing you locally but not sure nationally', and I suspect these are showing up as 'not Labour' in national opinion polls. There's everything to play for in the months ahead.
11:27 am, April 24, 2007
A change in personalities at the top with the same policies won't make any difference.
It's time to change direction...
12:41 pm, April 24, 2007
It's not so much as a change from Blair to Brown, the change that needs to happen is to deepen and broaden the profile of the Government. We need to see more of junior cabinet members and ministers out there spreading the word, not just a focus on hte leader.
If Brown can achieve such a move away from the cult of personality, it will be massively to his credit and provide a stark contrast to the window dressing of "ordinary Dave" and his cast of Etonian hangers-on.
Owen - I don't think we need to turn hard to port in order to signal a change in direction and emphasis - subtle changes, and perhaps a move in a few key areas such as the perception of our foreign policy, should be enough to create the fresh image we need
1:27 pm, April 24, 2007
"Owen - I don't think we need to turn hard to port in order to signal a change in direction and emphasis - subtle changes, and perhaps a move in a few key areas such as the perception of our foreign policy, should be enough to create the fresh image we need "
I don't think a few cosmetic changes and respinning our foreign policy without actually changing it will make any difference. To be perfectly honest I don't think people are that gullible.
1:56 pm, April 24, 2007
David it's going to take a lot more than "subtle changes, and perhaps a move in a few key areas such as the perception of our foreign policy".
For one thing, the contempt and disbelief that the Government is held in by many voters and non-voters on this issue, means that they will perceive any "subtle" changes about "perception" as a continuation of spin... has nothing been learned on this?
left field may well be right that the UK polls are probably skewed by the Scotland and Wales factors. But he/she is wrong in saying that Westminster will always be Labour v Tory... the other main contender is the ever-growing apathy vote that now constitutes a major danger in a metro-London-centric political system that continues to become detached from the people.
I do think that the shambling reluctant exit of Blair has provided a void that engenders a dynamic of critical questioning of the Brown premiership and is leaving it more and more vulnerable to doubts and 'events dear boy'.
2:24 pm, April 24, 2007
Am glad to note Luke is still
hoping for a leadership election and glad to see he has joined the new Facebook group Stand Down Meacher! which is lobbying to that end and now has 120 signed-up supporters within 48 hours.It's a terrible poll and there is worse ahead unless we change direction.
See link@
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2345666146
4:10 pm, April 24, 2007
That's the "other" Luke Akehurst - but actually from a completely objective point of view I agree that Meacher should stand down in McDonnell's favour.
5:40 pm, April 24, 2007
Hi Luke,
Is your stalker on Facebook as well!?
6:25 pm, April 24, 2007
Yes. Inevitably. I admire his dedication to the task. If only I was worth so much effort...
6:31 pm, April 24, 2007
Well, Luke, you are still welcome to join!!!!!
7:02 pm, April 24, 2007
Luke,
Out of interests, what's your basis for wanting Meacher to stand down in McDonnell's favour?
10:51 pm, April 24, 2007
I personally want McDonnell to get nominated so that the relative support for his stream of opinion in the party can be judged accurately, rather than just speculated about.
A left-right contest would confer a democratic mandate on Brown and moderate policies.
11:03 pm, April 24, 2007
Luke (this one) is on record here hoping McDonnell gets on the ballot and gets an awful kicking by the corralled and triangulated Brownies.
His language today therefore is a welcome moderation of his nasty sectarian streak.
11:51 pm, April 24, 2007
David said...
"It's not so much as a change from Blair to Brown, the change that needs to happen is to deepen and broaden the profile of the Government. We need to see more of junior cabinet members and ministers out there spreading the word, not just a focus on hte leader."
Never mind spreading the word ... what about spreading out some of this wealth that's going about! Some of us are on the poverty line and have just gotten poorer thanks to Brown's economic policies!
david wrote "Owen - I don't think we need to turn hard to port in order to signal a change in direction and emphasis - subtle changes, and perhaps a move in a few key areas such as the perception of our foreign policy, should be enough to create the fresh image we need."
We've had enough "fresh images and perceptions" to make us sick to the gut. Does david really think the electorate is as shallow as that? Before being kicked into touch for the next eight years Labour should do what it was elected to do, fight poverty. Instead its legacy will be that it made the rich richer and the poor poorer.
3:22 am, April 25, 2007
"My hunch is that the immediate aftermath of the leadership election could give us enough of a boost to put us back just in front. Translating that into a sustained recovery will depend on whether Brown's policy initiatives are sufficiently bold to capture the public imagination."
Well observed.
5:56 pm, April 26, 2007
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