A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The regional factor - update

Update on which regions Deputy Leader nominations are coming from:

London: Blears 8, Cruddas 8, Harman 7, Johnson 6, Benn 5, Hain 2
South East: Harman 7, Hain 4, Benn 3, Blears 1, Cruddas 1, Johnson 1
South West: Johnson 4, Harman 2, Hain 2, Benn 1, Blears 1, Cruddas 0
East: Harman 5, Cruddas 2, Johnson 2, Hain 1, Benn 0, Blears 0
East Midlands: Johnson 6, Harman 5, Benn 4, Blears 3, Cruddas 2, Hain 2
West Midlands: Johnson 9, Harman 6, Blears 5, Cruddas 5, Benn 4, Hain 1
North West: Blears 13, Cruddas 13, Johnson 10, Hain 8, Benn 4, Harman 3
Yorkshire: Johnson 13, Benn 8, Cruddas 6, Hain 5, Harman 5, Blears 3
North: Blears 7, Harman 6, Johnson 6, Hain 5, Benn 2, Cruddas 0
Wales: Hain 15, Harman 5, Cruddas 2, Johnson 2, Benn 1, Blears 1
Scotland: Harman 9, Blears 6, Cruddas 5, Johnson 5, Hain 4, Benn 2

My hunch is that given where the membership is heaviest, whoever is knocked out last out of Hazel or Alan can beat Harman in the final round (assuming Benn doesn't get nominated).

The Welsh transfers will be important as personal loyalty to Hain is over-riding some fairly moderate politics with some of his backers i.e. they may transfer to Hazel or Alan. Benn supporters are probably being courted heavily for if their man drops out too.

Cruddas polling well in NW and London - the key internal Labour urban battlegrounds with large Guardianista CLPs, but nowhere in the south outside London having dissed key seats, or in the working class heartlands.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Martin Salter might argue about the South East key seats. I think your ambition for Hazel is disproportionate with her ability to achieve in this election.

I think Alan J will squeeze her out, it's not too late to change allegiances.

11:45 pm, May 15, 2007


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