The regional factor - update

Update on which regions Deputy Leader nominations are coming from:

London: Blears 8, Cruddas 8, Harman 7, Johnson 6, Benn 5, Hain 2
South East: Harman 7, Hain 4, Benn 3, Blears 1, Cruddas 1, Johnson 1
South West: Johnson 4, Harman 2, Hain 2, Benn 1, Blears 1, Cruddas 0
East: Harman 5, Cruddas 2, Johnson 2, Hain 1, Benn 0, Blears 0
East Midlands: Johnson 6, Harman 5, Benn 4, Blears 3, Cruddas 2, Hain 2
West Midlands: Johnson 9, Harman 6, Blears 5, Cruddas 5, Benn 4, Hain 1
North West: Blears 13, Cruddas 13, Johnson 10, Hain 8, Benn 4, Harman 3
Yorkshire: Johnson 13, Benn 8, Cruddas 6, Hain 5, Harman 5, Blears 3
North: Blears 7, Harman 6, Johnson 6, Hain 5, Benn 2, Cruddas 0
Wales: Hain 15, Harman 5, Cruddas 2, Johnson 2, Benn 1, Blears 1
Scotland: Harman 9, Blears 6, Cruddas 5, Johnson 5, Hain 4, Benn 2

My hunch is that given where the membership is heaviest, whoever is knocked out last out of Hazel or Alan can beat Harman in the final round (assuming Benn doesn't get nominated).

The Welsh transfers will be important as personal loyalty to Hain is over-riding some fairly moderate politics with some of his backers i.e. they may transfer to Hazel or Alan. Benn supporters are probably being courted heavily for if their man drops out too.

Cruddas polling well in NW and London - the key internal Labour urban battlegrounds with large Guardianista CLPs, but nowhere in the south outside London having dissed key seats, or in the working class heartlands.