Can the leading candidates get their vote out?
Buried somewhere in the YouGov data, and reported on Politicalbetting.com, was this certainty to vote question:
Q How likely are you to vote in the election for Labour’s deputy leader:
Cruddas supporters 74%
Blears supporters 69%
Benn supporters 58%
Johnson supporters 56%
Hain supporters 40%
Harman supporters 35%
which fits with what happened at my GC - the Benn, Johnson and Harman supporters I knew of either didn't turn up or didn't nominate their candidates.
Cruddas backer Henry G comments on politicalbetting.com:
"If you multiply the first preference result with the certainty to vote figure you get a ‘guaranteed vote’ for candidates before others make up their minds. It changes the picture a little:
Benn 13.9%, Johnson 13.4%, Cruddas 10.3%, Blears 6.9%, Harman6.3% and Hain 5.6%. "
I've now found the full datasets -
and discovered that the numbers I quoted above relate to the certainty to vote of TU members.
Amongst Party members the certainty to vote is:
Cruddas supporters 79%
Johnson supporters 71%
Benn supporters 70%
Blears supporters 64%
Hain supporters 61%
Harman supporters 51%
so actually it's more a story about low turnout of Harman supporters in both sections.