A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Can the leading candidates get their vote out?

Buried somewhere in the YouGov data, and reported on Politicalbetting.com, was this certainty to vote question:

Q How likely are you to vote in the election for Labour’s deputy leader:

Cruddas supporters 74%
Blears supporters 69%
Benn supporters 58%
Johnson supporters 56%
Hain supporters 40%
Harman supporters 35%

which fits with what happened at my GC - the Benn, Johnson and Harman supporters I knew of either didn't turn up or didn't nominate their candidates.

Cruddas backer Henry G comments on politicalbetting.com:

"If you multiply the first preference result with the certainty to vote figure you get a ‘guaranteed vote’ for candidates before others make up their minds. It changes the picture a little:
Benn 13.9%, Johnson 13.4%, Cruddas 10.3%, Blears 6.9%, Harman6.3% and Hain 5.6%. "


I've now found the full datasets -

and discovered that the numbers I quoted above relate to the certainty to vote of TU members.

Amongst Party members the certainty to vote is:

Cruddas supporters 79%
Johnson supporters 71%
Benn supporters 70%
Blears supporters 64%
Hain supporters 61%
Harman supporters 51%

so actually it's more a story about low turnout of Harman supporters in both sections.


Blogger Owen said...

And now Luke hinges his hopes of Blears escaping total and utter humiliation on a low turnout!

12:06 pm, June 03, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

owen, as opposed to total and utter humiliation because not even one in ten MPs like your candidate? Oh, sorry, I know that was a conspiracy and involved black helicopters, couldn't possibly be because John McDonnell is less popular than effluent in a swimming pool.

1:59 pm, June 03, 2007


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