Good news from YouGov
Poor David Cameron. He is increasingly looking like he'll be not the Tories' Blair, but their Neil Kinnock.
Yesterday's YouGov poll - http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results070615st.pdf which had Labour up one at 35%, the Tories down one at 37% and the Liberal Democrats down one at 14%, make satisfying reading if you plug the numbers into the "make your prediction" bit of http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ - we are back in Labour majority territory.
This is without the further lift we should get from what promises to be a bold reshuffle, and any policy announcements Brown has up his sleeve over the next few months.
The poll says people want an early General Election.
I would dispute that there is any constitutional requirement for one, but if the numbers keep moving like this it might make a lot of sense for Labour to call the Tories' bluff and go to the country early, giving Brown a full-term mandate.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 8:06 am
4 Comments:
My prediction for the next election is Labour wins more seats, Tories get more votes, and parliament is hung or nearly hung - eitehr way, the next parliament will see electoral reform shoot up the agenda.
8:40 am, June 18, 2007
Bill,
How can Labour win more seats and end up having a decreased majority?
How?
12:07 pm, June 18, 2007
Brown is between 'a rock and a hard place' on calling an early UK election.
It's argued by some from an English Labour perspective that he might be better going sooner than later (but it's worrying that that is maybe true).
However and meantime, his once-stronghold Scotland is seriously leaking below the water line.
Scottish Labour undoubtedly did 'less bad' in the recent Scottish elections than many of us anticipated - even if it has lead to some nauseating alliances and understanding with Tories at Local Authority level which will come back to haunt them.
But the post-election scenario has shown him and the outgoing Blair to be utterly unable to respond to, and deal with, a new set of realities.
A continued populist line from the SNP Scottish Executive will worsen this situation in the short to medium term future. So if Brown goes early he courts the likely realisation of a further collapse in the Scottish heartlands.
Will this be offset by gains (or more likely, consolidation) in England? But then does that not further ignite the seperatist issue? Might also contribute to a sense of Brown being an intergnum with a perceived need for a quick move to a 'new generation' (English?) Labour leader?
12:18 pm, June 18, 2007
Anon.,
sorry, more seats than the Tories, the Tories get more votes than Labour. eitehr that, or I emant most.
1:09 pm, June 18, 2007
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