A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Nominations regional analysis

Some figures for the regional breakdown of nominations for Deputy Leadership candidates (and % of CLPs that nominated):

London – Cruddas 19, Benn 14, Harman 8, Johnson 5, Blears 2, Hain 2 (68% of CLPs nominated)
South East – Benn 14, Harman 9, Cruddas 8, Blears 4, Johnson 1, Hain 1 (50% of CLPs nominated)
South West – Harman 9, Johnson 5, Benn 4, Cruddas 4, Blears 1, Hain 1 (45% of CLPs nominated)
East – Cruddas 8, Benn 7, Harman 5, Johnson 2, Blears 0, Hain 0 (37% of CLPs nominated)
East Midlands – Benn 6, Cruddas 3, Harman 3, Johnson 3, Blears 2, Hain 1 (40% of CLPs nominated)
West Midlands – Benn 6, Blears 6, Harman 6, Cruddas 4, Johnson 4, Hain 2 (47% of CLPs nominated)
North West – Blears 14, Benn 9, Cruddas 6, Johnson 4, Hain 4, Harman 1 (55% of CLPs nominated)
Yorkshire – Johnson 13, Benn 6, Cruddas 5, Harman 4, Blears 2, Hain 0 (55% of CLPs nominated)
North – Johnson 5, Harman 4, Benn 3, Blears 2, Cruddas 1, Hain 0 (43% of CLPs nominated)
Wales – Hain 10, Cruddas 5, Harman 4, Benn 1, Blears 0, Johnson 0 (50% of CLPs nominated)
Scotland – Benn 7, Harman 7, Cruddas 5, Blears 3, Johnson 3, Hain 2 (46% of CLPs nominated)

Very geographically polarised support.

Everyone managed to come top in at least one region. Everyone except Hain came 1st/joint 1st in at least 2 regions.

Regions where no one had a “home base” were very evenly split, with no clear favourite emerging.

Patterns of support are as much to do with geography as left and right:

36% of Benn’s support was from London & SE CLPs, with a big cluster in the bits of both regions near to Ealing where he used to be a councillor. Surprisingly weak in Yorkshire where he’s an MP.

40% of Cruddas’ support was from London and the Eastern region counties that neighbour the part of London where he is an MP.

52% of Harman’s support was from the 4 southernmost regions, though she didn’t perform as well as Benn and Cruddas in London, despite being a London MP.

41% of Johnson’s support was from Yorkshire where he is an MP, and the neighbouring Northern region. He didn’t pull in many nominations in either London or the North West, the 2 largest regions by membership.

39% of Blears’ support was from the North West.

43% of Hain’s support was from Wales.

Levels of participation also very variable: from 68% of CLPs nominating in London, down to 37% in the East of England.

12 Comments:

Blogger Doctor Dunc said...

Suggests the party are as confused/disinterested/bored as me.

:o)

8:51 pm, June 02, 2007

 
Anonymous luke needs to get a life said...

I mean, seriously

9:57 pm, June 02, 2007

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is some one who is reading Luke's blog at 10pm on a saturday night really in a position to suggest that some one else needs to get a life?!

11:45 pm, June 02, 2007

 
Anonymous Larry Critter said...

I rather wish "Puke Akehurst" perhaps needs to take long hard look in the mirror (beyond his pale ginger geek face)and realise the vast majority of people who read his blog or have heard of him think he's a tosser. he really does revel in annoying people doesn't he? If I were Hazel blears I'd immediately distance myself from you as soon as posible as this is the worst possible advert for her, as despite her rightwing politics even she dosen't try to offend everyone and anyone deliberately- luke I suggest you work harder, and open your mouth more on behalf of hazel to ensure she crashes and burns like blairism! when that happens snivelling little turds like you will have the knife stuck in them- then how much will you be "Nuts for her?" you people would sell your grandmother if you thought it would get you further.

1:48 am, June 03, 2007

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for that, Luke. A very useful analysis.

2:41 am, June 03, 2007

 
Anonymous willthiscontesteverbeover said...

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

9:31 am, June 03, 2007

 
Blogger Owen said...

Luke,

I hope that there will be a full-page post from you on today's YouGov poll.

In particular, I hope that you draw attention to these facts:

- Despite the lack of a contest, support for McDonnell among party members has doubled in the past month from 9% to 18%; among trade unionists, support has increased from 10% in March to 26% now. We can only imagine what this would have increased to if he had been given a proper platform in the contest.

- Hazel Blears is by the far the least popular candidate, languishing at 9% among party members and 7% among trade unionists.

- On a range of issues, both party members and trade unionists are way to the left of New Labour. 68% of party members and 75% of levy-paying trade unionists want Britain to publicly distance itself from Bush's policies in the Middle East; 66% of party members and 71% of trade unionists want a 50% rate of taxation for those earning £100,000 or more a year; 58%/67% want a drastic rethink/slowdown of Blairite reforms in public services; 58%/66% want the railways renationalised even if this means increasing taxes; and 48%/57% want British troops withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible, regardless of the circumstances; about half are opposed to new nuclear power stations; only 37/38% support renewal of Trident.

Pretty grim reading for the right, isn't it?

9:41 am, June 03, 2007

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

An interesting interpretation of a poll that shows the 2nd and 3rd most rightwing candidates as the joint favourites!

10:54 am, June 03, 2007

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

For newer readers, it's worth you knowing that the commenter "Larry Critter" is believed to be the pseudonym of a Hackney resident who assulted a disabled councillor with a stick at a planning committee. Quite why he finds a set of statistics about CLP nominations so infuriating is anyone's guess.

Just one point of rebuttal - my face may be ginger and geeky but it's actually rather florid rather than pale (particularly after spending yesterday at a garden party engaged in comradely chat about the state of the party with leading Hackney hard leftists).

11:00 am, June 03, 2007

 
Anonymous Hovedan said...

So Owen, according to the fuigures you cite, more than 80% of the party support Gordon Brown over McDonnell.

Im sureb the GB campaign are cool with that level of support.

11:02 am, June 03, 2007

 
Blogger Owen said...

Luke,

You know as well as I do that it isn't as simply as that. Because this is a contest over a non-job between candidates with little political differences, people are treating this as a personality contest. Many on the left are voting for Benn, in case you hadn't noticed. Furthermore, a breakdown of the poll reveals that even 11% of McDonnell supporters are voting for Johnson - and 7% are voting for Blears!!!

In any case, the combined vote of the 2 candidates regarded as Blairites in the popular imagination is 33%.

There is no way whatsoever that you can spin your way out of the fact that a large majority of the party back progressive policies that you are militantly opposed to.

And as for hovedan - the doubling of John's support in the space of a month came from just a brief flurry of coverage based on the debate he had with Brown. A lot of people in the party still don't even know who John is. If there had been a proper contest and John had had a platform, we could have expected John's support to rise very significantly - and I'd imagine he'd have ended up with a third of the vote.

Unfortunately we don't know because we were deprived of our right to vote.

11:23 am, June 03, 2007

 
Blogger HenryG said...

Good analysis Luke - really helpful to see the different region's support. Most have taken a while to put together so thanks.

7:32 pm, June 03, 2007

 

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