Polls and votes
We've now got the first real post-"there will not be an election" poll, from Ipsos Mori:
LIB DEM 11%(-5)
Good for the Tories, awful for the LDs, not too bad for us given the tone of this week's media coverage - 38% is exactly where we were in August (during phase one of the "Brown honeymoon") with this pollster and 7% higher than our position with them before the leadership election, as well as being better than the result we got in the 2005 election. Given this is now the mid-term and not the run in to an election, I don't think we should be over agitated.
Real votes last night in council by-elections:
Hobrook Ward, Horsham DC - Tory ward in Sussex - Lib Dem gain from Tory on a 9% swing
Chippenham Town Council - another Lib Dem gain from Con
The full figures are here - http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2007/s071010.shtml - which reveal that Labour is actually 6% ahead of the Tories amongst all those expressing an opinion - only behind when it's filtered down to those certain to vote (i.e. the headline figure should be more accurately called a "election prediction model poll" than an "opinion poll"). Now if we could only introduce compulsory voting ...
Do you think that Gordon Brown was right or wrong in his decision not to call a General Election this Autumn?
Don't know 11