A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Polls and votes

We've now got the first real post-"there will not be an election" poll, from Ipsos Mori:

CON 41%(+7)
LAB 38%(-3)
LIB DEM 11%(-5)

Good for the Tories, awful for the LDs, not too bad for us given the tone of this week's media coverage - 38% is exactly where we were in August (during phase one of the "Brown honeymoon") with this pollster and 7% higher than our position with them before the leadership election, as well as being better than the result we got in the 2005 election. Given this is now the mid-term and not the run in to an election, I don't think we should be over agitated.

Real votes last night in council by-elections:

Hobrook Ward, Horsham DC - Tory ward in Sussex - Lib Dem gain from Tory on a 9% swing
Chippenham Town Council - another Lib Dem gain from Con


The full figures are here - http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2007/s071010.shtml - which reveal that Labour is actually 6% ahead of the Tories amongst all those expressing an opinion - only behind when it's filtered down to those certain to vote (i.e. the headline figure should be more accurately called a "election prediction model poll" than an "opinion poll"). Now if we could only introduce compulsory voting ...

Also interesting:

Do you think that Gordon Brown was right or wrong in his decision not to call a General Election this Autumn?

Right 47
Wrong 42
Don't know 11


Anonymous Anonymous said...

This blog is pretty much the only place I can get cheered up as a Labour supporter.

11:08 am, October 12, 2007

Blogger Westmonster said...

Didn't the BNP push Labour into fourth place in Horsham though?

2:28 pm, October 12, 2007

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

No Labour was already 4th in that ward in May!

May 2007 result:
Con 1018
Con 959
LD 712
LD 698
Ind 361
Lab 78

Last night:
LibDem 602
Con 554
BNP 163
Lab 54

By my calculation Labour went up from 3.6% in May to a stunning 3.9% this time ...

2:37 pm, October 12, 2007

Blogger Westmonster said...

Thanks Luke - noted!

2:53 pm, October 12, 2007

Blogger Chris Paul said...

Yes, the whole thing's covered in the Sun. I'll post the pi(e) charts. AS you'd expect Gordon gets a Luke-like share of the pie while DC only gets a sliver, wafer thin.

5:37 pm, October 12, 2007

Blogger Chris Paul said...

Was the BNP candidate the same person as the Independent? A truly awful turnout for the Tories considering they are all cock-a-hoop and the like?

5:39 pm, October 12, 2007

Anonymous Andrea said...

"Was the BNP candidate the same person as the Independent? "

no, she wasn't. The BNP candidate stood in another ward last May

7:42 pm, October 12, 2007


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