3 polls all basically saying the same thing - Tories boosted by their conference, Labour holding on to a good 39/40%, LDs nowhere, minor parties squeezed:
ICM - Lab 39%, Con 38%, LD 16%
Populus - Lab 39%, Con 36%, LD 15%
YouGov - Lab 40%, Con 36%, LD 13%
- the arguments I set out in the post below about not having an early election are reinforced
- if Cameron can give it everything he's got and deploy his tax cuts and Labour is still poll 39/40% then we will win when the election comes
We have the great advantage of time - lots of it - three years if we want - to prepare our defences in depth and win not just narrowly but a comprehensive and strategic victory.
The election speculation has been valuable in that it has got Labour onto a fighting footing and ramped up our campaign preparations, whilst smoking out the Tory policy position.
Let's stay calm and if the election isn't called still get out there on the doorstep and make this a campaigning Autumn that leaves all our marginal seats in a stronger position.