A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.
Populus poll out today: CON 37% (-3): LAB 34% (+3): LD 19%(+2)
posted by Luke Akehurst at 11:20 pm
Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012 and since 2020. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.
5 Comments:
There won't be election on the 1st of May. Most likely to be 2009 as the UK will be in a recession by 2010 and Brown knows it.
11:45 pm, March 10, 2008
Erm, there will be elections on 1st May. For a start there's the mayoral elections, which seem to be your secondary obsession after immigration, Rich. Then there are also local elections around the country.
I can't think of a prediction you have made that has come true, so your prediction about a recession heartens me.
11:51 pm, March 10, 2008
Tim, my predictions regarding increased support for the BNP are correct. So far they are up 13% on last time. Even the trade unions are warning Labour about increased support for the BNP due to pressure on working people and jobs. The conservative party are also seeing some large gains.
The latest Poll on voter intentions actually puts the conservatives 10% ahead of Labour. I predicted that.
I have also predicted the Ken Livingston will take another term. I don't like the idea but I think it's an almost impossible task to remove a character like Ken.
As for the economy I'm only repeating what Browns advisors are saying. The Boom is over and we now into damage limitation. If he's going to hold an election it will have to be 2009.
10:58 am, March 11, 2008
Thing is, local by-elections are never a very reliable way of working out what is really going on, but they don't suggest a 10% Tory lead.
The BNP vote is certainly not 'up 13%' if you mean that their overall vote will be 13% +. It will be localised as ever.
Having said that Labour's standing isn't enough for a majority of any kind.
3:00 pm, March 11, 2008
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1098
To be honest I don't trust the polls at the moment. They have not been very reliable in the states or Europe. However, I can't honestly believe that there is much support for Labour at the momemt either. The trade unions are far from happy and there is a big debate at the moment whether it is worth funding the Labour party anymore. It won't take much more for some of the trade unions to literally take their support away from Labour.
5:31 pm, March 11, 2008
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