A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

A few predictions

I've had an exhausting afternoon acting the role of Tessa Jowell (!) in the rehearsal for the BBC's election night programme - fun though if pretending to be a Labour Minister getting interrogated by David Dimbleby about some "interesting" imaginary election results is your idea of fun. Mr Dimbleby said I was "feisty" which I assume was intended as a compliment.

I'm going to chance my arm with a few predictions about tomorrow night's results:

1) The almost inevitable loss of Labour overall control in Reading will be offset by better results in the south in Oxford, Slough and maybe Hastings. All this will be ignored by the media as it doesn't fit their narrative of Labour southern retreat.

2) The West Midlands will see Labour either hold steady or gain seats, with the exception of Wolverhampton where it's touch and go that we'll keep control.

3) Liverpool will go from Lib Dem to No Overall Control.

4) In the rest of the North West Tory gains in Bury will be offset by a strong Labour performance in the Pennine boroughs. Again, this will be ignored by the media as it doesn't fit their narrative.

5) The Tories will spend a lot of time arguing about exactly how many fractions of a % above 40% they have edged.

6) There will be a continuation of last year's north-south divide in the results.

7) Wales is going to be fairly depressing.

8) I haven't got a clue what will happen with Ken vs Boris, but that's the one I'm working to affect rather than commenting on.

If it's Thursday and you are Labour and reading this, you shouldn't be! Switch off your computer and go out and Get Out The Vote.


Blogger Prague said...

You haven't got much further to fall in the Midlands. It would be nice if you were reducing to holding just Sandwell, but you should be able to hold Wolvo. Expect scattered losses in places to Tories in places like Worcester, Birmingham, Walsall.

11:53 pm, April 30, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wot a lamma.

You're getting fucked up the arse and you have some observations about the nature of the attack.

A reality check. The "project" has dissembled. The language is all nonsense. Everybody now reads the code and reads the reversal coda in the code.

You aren't going to put this together again. Gormless couldn't fuck a duck. The game is up. Now fuck off.

12:16 am, May 01, 2008

Blogger Quink said...

On Monday I'd have said Ken might have edged it, but the subsequent anti-Labour response on Hackney streets and estates, coupled with people from all communities who - diffidently, but with fire - have endorsed Boris, and damned Ken, suggest it's all up for the present mayor. I think you're looking at a new generation of voters that are smarting from the way they've been treated by Labour.

12:39 am, May 01, 2008

Blogger Gregg said...

Here are five (5) positive outcomes of Boris "BoJo" Johnson winning the Mayoralty:-

1) House prices outside of London will increase rapidly as people migrate en masse from the metropolis.

2) BoZo's calamatous cock-ups and corruption will ensure Cameron loses the next general election.

3) BoDoh's bumbling response to any future terrorist incident, whilst at first embarrassing and upsetting, will soon appear comical, and Londoners will be united in their time of need by their contempt for this useless fop.

4) The massive destruction wrought by the second Great Fire, after SloBo presides over swingeing cuts to the fire service, will allow the next Mayor to embark on a massive programme of public works, so that London will be completely transformed by 2020, a city of skyscraping wonders, ready to serve as the planet's capital in the C21st as New York did in the C20th.

5) Ken Livingstone will be a shoe-in for a celebrity cameo in the next series of Doctor Who.

5:57 am, May 01, 2008

Blogger Dave Brinson said...

Watch Hastings- could be exciting...

9:07 am, May 01, 2008

Blogger Ravi Gopaul said...

Luke said,

"If it's Thursday and you are Labour and reading this, you shouldn't be! Switch off your computer and go out and Get Out The Vote"

Well I am at work, but I did vote (every little bit helps).

I don't think we can win Woolton (in Liverpool) as its naturally Tory, although the ward has returned an LD councillor. The local press have been giving the LDs quite a pasting, so I think your prediction might hold water.

By the way I hope the hard work you and other labour comrades have put into Ken's campaign pays off.

Good luck tonight, me and the missus will be keeping an eye out for you on the box, remember to say hello!!!

9:37 am, May 01, 2008

Blogger Duncan Hall said...

Yes good luck everyone. Well done with all the campaigning for Ken. We might do it yet!

5:59 pm, May 01, 2008

Anonymous NickR said...


I predict that my ballot was spoilt by polling station officials in Sydenham. They wrote my polling card number on the back in pencil...isolated cases I think not!

10:43 pm, May 01, 2008

Anonymous Mike said...

You say that the media will ignore any good Labour results in the south. The narrative is correct Labour is virtually non-existent in large areas of the south, southwest and East Anglia. The Conservatives get lots of grief because they are weak in Scotland and Wales yet those two constituent parts of the UK are smaller than the areas I mentioned Labour are very weak in (weak as in third place and non-existent on several councils)

11:40 pm, May 01, 2008


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