Yep, the one with the 26% Tory lead.
I think it's about right in terms of a snapshot of where we are now - which is a pretty dark place for Labour. I'm not even going to publish the analysis of the May 1st results I've seen because I don't want to be responsible for a number of Labour MPs defending majorities in excess of 15,000 jumping off Big Ben.
But where we are at now is not where we have to be when we fight the next General Election - which could be as far as two years away. Six weeks ago we were closing the gap on the Tories. Six months ago we had a 10% lead. There is no reason why we should not again be closing the gap by mid-June and 10% ahead by the end of the party conference season, if we get the politics right between now and then.
For the PLP that means separating out a specific putting of pressure on the Government over the 10p tax rate from generalised chaos and indiscipline on other issues - we saw what happened when Tory MPs lost the will to win and any sense of loyalty to their PM and government in the mid-90s. Let's not go there.
For Gordon it should mean a rapid, full and comprehensive settling of the 10p rate issue, with no losers allowed to slip through the net - people without kids are just as deserving of decent treatment by the tax system as those with - followed by coming out fighting with some policy initiatives that will really unite Labour and illustrate to voters what the difference is between us and the Tories. Not ephemera about volunteering or constitutional tinkering but bread-and-butter stuff that will put more cash in ordinary people's pockets or make their daily lives noticably easier. And stylistically he should just be himself and let people judge him on who he really is. If they don't like it and we lose, let's at least have spent the next two years doing things we will be proud to have been associated with.
I thought both John Denham and Peter Mandelson said useful things last night: Denham said Labour's reluctance to acknowledge failings has led to public scepticism and that if ministers did not acknowledge errors the public would not believe they would get it right in the future; Mandelson warned against abandoning one of the key tenets of New Labour - helping the poor:
"If you lose one tenet then the whole edifice starts looking shaky and that's what's happened".
How we handle the period from now until the start of the Commons recess in July is going to determine the politics of the next decade or so: will this be the point at which Labour, having looked over the precipice, steps back and focuses on how to win a fourth term, or will it be the point at which we enter into a downward spiral of panic that will see us crash out of power for a generation?