A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Council by-election results

Bumper lot of council by-election results last night. A rather better set of results for Labour than we have been seeing recently.

Hampstead Town Ward, LB Camden. LD gain from Con. LD 1242 (44.1%, +11.5), Con 1114 (39.6%, -6.9), Lab 289 (10.3%, -1), Green 140 (5%, -3.3), BNP 29 (1%, +1). Swing of 9.2% from Con to LD since 2006. This is partly explained by the loss of Tory Councillor Mike Greene's personal vote, but may destabilise the Con/LD coalition running Camden as the Tories may wonder what electoral benefit they are deriving from it, having lost Highgate Ward to the Greens on 1 May. This result is also significant in terms of it being in Glenda Jackson's 3-way marginal parliamentary seat.

Chalfont St Giles Ward, Chiltern DC. Con hold. Con 927 (68.1%, +0.6), Lib Dem 434 (31.9%, -0.6). Swing of 0.6% from LD to Con since 2007.

Plumstead Ward, LB Greenwich. Lab hold. Lab 1318 (59.1%, +12.4), Con 542 (24.3%, +1.5), LD 195 (8.7%, -10.6), Green 175 (7.8%, +7.8). Swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab since 2006.

Pin Green Ward, Stevenage BC. Lab hold. Lab 716 (54.4%, +6.8), Con 321 (24.4%, -5.1), LD 112 (8.5%, -2.9), UKIP 85 (6.5%, +6.5), Free England 81 (6.2%, -5.4). Swing of 6% from Con to Lab since May this year - in a key parliamentary marginal.

Minster Cliffs Ward, Swale BC. Con gain from Sheppey First. Con 549 (48%, +1.4), Sheppey First 328 (28.7%, +28.7), Lab 204 (17.8%, +1.8), LD 63 (5.5%, -25.9). Swing of 13.7% from Con to Sheppey First since May 2008. The politics on Sheppey are confusing as Sheppey First and the Lib Dems are in an alliance.

Sheerness E Ward, Swale BC. Lab gain from Sheppey First. Lab 326 (38.4%, +6.6), LD 177 (20.9%, +10), Con 173 (20.4%, -1.8), Sheppey First 171 (20.2%, -14.9). Swing of 1.7% from Lab to LD since 2007, but a good increase in the Labour vote in one of the better bits of knife-edge parliamentary marginal Sittingbourne & Sheppey.

Alfriston Ward, Wealden DC. LD gain from Con. LD 495 (51.6%, +20.2), Con 465 (48.4%, -20.2). Swing of 20.2% from Con to LD since 2007.

Colden Common and Twyford, Winchester City Council. LD hold. LD 1108 (52.6%, -0.4), Con 935 (44.4%, -0.2), Lab 64 (3%, +0.6). Swing of 0.1% from LD to Con since this May.

Comments on http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/ discussion forum are interesting:

Mark Senior (a Tory): "A good set of results for LibDems this week in their important target areas , not bad results for Labour and poor for Conservatives"

Simon Cooke (a Tory): "these were a pretty poor set of results for the Conservatives (other than on the sainted isle of Sheppey of course). We are not converting a national poll lead into success in by-elections as we should and I suspect this is about effective campaigning on the ground - the party seems to have forgotten (other than on Sheppey it seems) some simple facts about campaigning, one of which is to actually do some. And shoving out a leaflet or two doesn't qualify."

Lib Dem Peer Lord Greaves: "This is a batch of quite extraordinary results (even apart from the eccentricities of Sheppey). They are, taken as a whole, very bad for the Tories. The kind of batch of results we used to get and have not seen for a very long time.They are odd, eccentric, bizarre, not in accordance with the world as it is has come to be seen as real. We should all be pinching ourselves.Whether they mean anything outside each of these particular places will be seen in the next week or two. But the LDs did gain a seat from the Tories in Suffolk last week which means three in two weeks.What they do mean, at the very least, is that there is still no automatic and unstoppable Tory tide flowing through the land. Whatever the opinion polls say."

HF (a Tory): "Yes they were a poor set of results for the Conservatives. They may however do some good in shaking up the idleness and complacency that some Conservative Associations seem to have fallen into due to the national polls. Winchester was very bad"


Anonymous Andrea said...

The Wealden ward is a LD gain
LD 495 Con 465
2007 Con 707 LD 277

11:20 am, September 26, 2008

Anonymous Miles said...

The conclusion is clear.
Sheppy First are F*cked!

11:40 am, September 26, 2008

Anonymous paracelsus said...

There won't be a single Sheppy First MP left in the Commons at this rate ... come on, Luke - just how boring do you have to be to analyze Council by-elections ffs!

12:16 pm, September 26, 2008

Anonymous Rich said...

Council Byelections don't attract the majority of voters....they only attract loyalists. I hardly ever vote in local elections....too busy and the characters are far too boring.

The next general election will see Labour wiped off the political map and I'm willing to bet a years salary on it.

9:07 pm, September 26, 2008

Blogger Mark Still News said...

11 years of opportunity to create a stable, sustainable, strong economy wasted-By adopting Neo Conservative Policies? Have the Free Masons taken control of the Parliamentary Parties?

12:20 am, September 27, 2008

Anonymous Once in Sheppey said...

Worth noting that Labour in Sheerness is extremely well organised and exceptionally disciplined. I imagine they will have decided which by-election to focus on and fought the Sheerness East seat extremely hard to get such a good win. The local Labour Party in Sittingbourne & Sheppey are clearly in no mood for defeatism.

3:37 pm, September 27, 2008

Anonymous Rich said...

Isn't Sheppey a bit of a shit hole. Labour can keep it and that crappy bridge and it's mud beaches and dirty water.

Who the hell would want to live there anyway, the next big surge and it will be under water for months,

Anyone with any sense has moved out.

Craggy Island, is what we call that place in the mud.

9:17 pm, September 28, 2008


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