A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Labour's lop-sided recovery (so far)

Very interesting post on politicalbetting.com showing Labour's recovery is so far rather lopsided towards our core traditional support, which explains why we are still lagging behind more in the marginals than the country as a whole according to the poll in the News of the World at the weekend. The regional splits in the YouGov poll taken recently compared to the one in April show:

Our support up from 28% to 43% in Scotland (remember this is for Westminster elections not MSPs - but it's still an extraordinary shift)
Up from 30% to 41% in the North - another remarkable jump
Down from 30% to 29% in the Midlands & Wales.
Up from 20% to 23% in the South.
Up from 25% to 30% in London.

So we've done a good job at reawakening our historic core support but now we need to also reconnect with the "New Labour" swing voters who gave us victory in the last three elections. Better still let's try to come up with policies that appeal to both sets of voters.


Blogger Hughes Views said...

The NOW poll showing that we're doing less well in marginals than elsewhere is a worry. Maybe Lord A's cash is working its nasty magic.

Dennis Skinner made a typically apposite little interjection during a discussion on ownership of British football clubs during Culture, Media & Sports questions in the Commons yesterday. Hansard reports his words as "Does my hon. Friend agree that, although it is important to keep his beady eye on Abramovich and all the rest of them, it is probably more important in this world of politics, especially at this time, to ensure that bloated plutocrats such as Lord Ashcroft do not own the Tory party?"

Couldn't have put it anywhere near as well myself...

5:13 pm, October 07, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the Unions bankrolling Labour??

5:54 pm, October 07, 2008

Anonymous M said...

"Better still let's try to come up with policies that appeal to both sets of voters".

I couldn't agree more!

6:16 pm, October 07, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

A decade of bankrupt policies culminating in the nationalisation of all our banks tonight with the prospect of the economy going over the precipice for another decade.

And our boy wants to look on the bright side - a cupful of tea-leaves showing that Labour could get back in.

Luke's Monty Python Moment, this might be termed.

7:20 pm, October 07, 2008

OpenID alunephraim said...

Dangerous to read much into poll entrails, but, yeah, you'd expect any increase in Labour's rating since the summer to come from the so-called "core vote", if only because the party that they "defected" to was the Apathy Party rather than a real one...

7:58 pm, October 07, 2008

Anonymous Dirty Euro said...

Political betting is rubbish it is encourages gambling on politics which encourages corruption, and corrutupn. You could end up with asian, Russian and Italian mafias changing political results to make cash.
It seems the south of england is the most anti labour.
Why is this? Why does the south of england hate labour so much?

9:22 pm, October 07, 2008

Blogger Merseymike said...

The South of England has been the most Conservative region for a long time. The Tories tend to reflect their values more, I would say.

10:45 pm, October 07, 2008

Anonymous Rich said...


The only way to tell about Scotland will be the elections due in November....

11:13 pm, October 07, 2008

Blogger Mark Still News said...

NLP have a long way to go to regain their traditional customer. There is now real apathy out there regarding politics. The traditional supporter just see these slime balls in suits patronising them. Although I am not happy with NLP Neo Conservative policies, I definitely don't want a Fascist Tory government in power. I argue with people I find turning to Tory and try to explain what happened between 1979-1997 and what they will do again. From 1997-2008 the NLP went out to appease the middle classes forgetting and betraying the workers, now just look at what gratitude these middle classes have for NLP who bending over backwards for them responding to their every whim, while saying the workers can eat shit! The middle classes are turning their backs on NLP and every day they criticise the government and praise The Tory crap. It's time to change the product to obtain a loyal working class customer. The cabinet should be trained in customer services?

12:24 am, October 08, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I reckon it's all down to Margaret Hodge, as I was saying on the previous post.

String the bitch up.

1:26 am, October 08, 2008

Anonymous Dirty Euro said...

Maybe labour need to find a way of appealing to the south. How about regional devolution for the south and cornwall can have itls own parliament? What could appeal to the southern softies. The party actually has more southerners in top jobs than even scottish or northners so it cannot be image.

10:37 am, October 08, 2008

Blogger Mark Still News said...

I know a lot of Southerners are soft whinging wailing Middle classes, but even in the scum South there are a lot of working class people trapped in poverty and working for peanuts in an expensive area. Then a large population of the South originated from the North to escape the decimation of the North under Thatcherite times.And even in the hard north their are loads of Tories.
If we had a Southern devolution and a parliament it would be hijacked by the pampered middle classes and the essential classes would be told to eat shiot, just as what has happened to the LP

1:42 am, October 09, 2008

Anonymous Paul Leake said...

South does not equate to marginal or vice versa. The 'best performing' region, the North (particularly the North West and West Yorkshire) has a lot of marginals as does the Midlands.

11:02 pm, October 16, 2008


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