A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Even more Labour opinion poll progress

MORI poll today:

Con 40% (-5%)
Lab 37% (+7%)
LD 12% (-2%)

Labour now above its 2005 General Election score.

Seat calculators predict this would produce a Commons of 322 Labour MPs, 287 Tories and just 13 LDs - Labour only 4 short of a majority.

More here.

12 Comments:

Anonymous Paul said...

This is a poll of 'people certain to vote', I note

I'm not very good at these things - does that make a difference?

3:04 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

It reduces the Labour share.

A poll of the entire electorate, including those who for whatever reason are unlikely to vote, would have Labour way ahead of the Tories, because for socio-economic reasons many Labour supporters are unlikely to vote.

The First Past the Post system compensates for this (by accident) as safe Labour inner city seats still get an MP each even if their turnout is very low.

3:15 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This narrowing of the poll lead is encouraging; and this is before Cameron's spending blunder this morning which will allow every Labour campaigner to warn the electors about Tory cuts to their local services.

3:53 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Anonymous Neil Harding said...

Luke - you are right that FPTP currently accidently 'compensates' for low Labour voter turnout in poorer inner city seats - but FPTP is always open to gerrymandering abuse and a little tinkering by the Tories (they propose enlarging seats to make them more rural) will change this.

4:22 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Don't worry Neil I haven't suddenly converted to supporting FPTP after 20 years as an electoral reformer.

4:45 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just to note that assuming the NI results were the same as last time Labour would have an effective majority of eight - Sinn Fein don't turn up, the SDLP take the Labour whip (though in reality I wouldn't rely on them much more than for "confidence and supply") and Sylvia Hermon votes Labour.

10:03 pm, November 18, 2008

 
Blogger Robert said...

The only poll that counts is called a general election, then people really do vote well except the 60+% who stay at home bored sick.

7:40 am, November 19, 2008

 
Anonymous Rich said...

To all those hideous people who think it is really is good for democracy to make threatening phone calls to my 8 year old son this evening.

I really wish these people would knock on my door next time and try and hurl abuse and my family. Cowards.

BNP member and will remain to do so.

8:48 pm, November 19, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does that mean yoy are in the BNP Rich?

8:55 pm, November 19, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

Rich

Are you really a BNP Member?

A shame, because I thought you were more intelligent than that if you are?

12:06 am, November 20, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

BNP National front members exposed!

This has actually happened to many left wing organisations in the 1980's & early mid 90's-Right wing thugs would break into the offices and steal data and expose membership lists, then the MI5 would infiltrate these left wing parties and campaign organisations. The data was then sold to the economic league who then set up a service where capitalists could find left wing activists and blacklist them from employment or promotion and even victimise them.

I don't feel sorry for these BNP National Front people as they were doing all the things in the above paragraph. Now they have a taste of their own medicine.

12:21 pm, November 20, 2008

 
Anonymous Rich said...

I'm not a thug and not a member of the National Front. The BNP a political party and although it might have members who share right wing views most people are just everyday, honest, polite and fair....and not racist.

8:56 pm, November 20, 2008

 

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