Labour Poll Recovery Continues
YouGov poll in Sunday Times tomorrow:
Con 41% (-1%)
Lab 36% (+3%)
LD 14% (-1%)
This puts Labour back on exactly the same score it got when it won the 2005 General Election - the difference being that the Lib Dem vote has slumped 8% and the Tories have gained the same (though there is probably lots of churn - anti-war 2005 LD voters returning to Labour, compensating for swing voters going from Lab to Con).
In a General Election the seat calculator sites say our strange electoral system would, on these scores, make Labour the largest party with 304 seats, the Tories would get 302 and the LDs just 16. In reality I expect the LDs would hold on to a few more due to incumbency, reducing the Tory total a bit.
These are the sort of numbers Cameron will not want to see 18 months out from an election given governments usually recover in the final section of a term of office.