A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Labour Poll Recovery Continues

YouGov poll in Sunday Times tomorrow:

Con 41% (-1%)
Lab 36% (+3%)
LD 14% (-1%)

This puts Labour back on exactly the same score it got when it won the 2005 General Election - the difference being that the Lib Dem vote has slumped 8% and the Tories have gained the same (though there is probably lots of churn - anti-war 2005 LD voters returning to Labour, compensating for swing voters going from Lab to Con).

In a General Election the seat calculator sites say our strange electoral system would, on these scores, make Labour the largest party with 304 seats, the Tories would get 302 and the LDs just 16. In reality I expect the LDs would hold on to a few more due to incumbency, reducing the Tory total a bit.

These are the sort of numbers Cameron will not want to see 18 months out from an election given governments usually recover in the final section of a term of office.

12 Comments:

Blogger Mark Still News said...

By January there will be well over 2 million unemployed and the press will be attacking Brown big time . There will be many more bankruptcies and repossessions and people getting evicted. The polls could show NLP really sinking by then.

9:59 pm, November 15, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Check out the Indy poll, two hours later.

You're 13 behind.

12:46 am, November 16, 2008

 
Blogger Merseymike said...

Far too early to say whether these will have any impact or not. I am surprised that the Tories appear to have little to say and that does rather cement the idea that they wouldn't have a clue as to what to do in government. But to pretend that a couple of polls means that Labour are heading for a convincing victory is optimistic in the extreme!

10:50 am, November 16, 2008

 
Anonymous Rich said...

There are also lots of other Polls that show a very convincing poll lead for the Conservatives.

I'm not sure Labour will be enjoying the same results in about two months. However, Labours bounce has been engineered using a clever media strategy and when the focus has been on the economy.

I'm very surprised at how little resistance there has been to the Bank bailout. No one has ever questioned the importance of Banks and whether bailing them out was actually the most important thing on the agenda. Was this the only option available to the country?

I'm very shocked at how few people realise that the consequences of this bank bailout. You can't borrow billions, pour it into a black hole and get billions of gold back. The banks have lost trillions and the losses are being made up by taxes.

Also the idea of tax cuts via the tax credit system seems a little sick. What Brown is saying is that he is going to borrow money to give to the poor so they can spend it in the shops.....I find that a little alarming when we should be telling people to save. LIKE SAVE LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW. There should now be health warnings on credit and strict rules governing who can get it and how much you can borrow.

A weird situation when a loan is considered an asset to be bought and sold while savings are considered a liability.

I see no end to the cycle of boom and boost while we have a political system so eager to to prop up capitalism using tax payers money.

11:39 am, November 16, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are almost certainly in recession and unemployment will almost certainly rise considerably above the 2 million mark, the man in the street knows this every bit as well as those who read political blogs. The Tories should be much further ahead in the opinion polls than they currently are. Perhaps they have peaked too early or more than likely the public are seeing Cameron and Osborne for the lightweights that they really are!!

One other point the I don't know if one else has noticed but the Times poll that put the Tory lead at 5% was Yougov the same people who predicted that BJ would win the London mayoral race comfortably when others put the result neck and neck.

Finally the Indy says the Tories are 11% ahead not 13 as someone previously mentioned!

2:55 pm, November 16, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

Rich

The people in this country are thick and it has not fully registered what was done to bail out the banks and that it was their money! I can't believe how they got away with this one?

Hospitals & schools rely on people raising money through charity for essential services, as the government has always said there is no more available yet they pour thousands of billions into the banking system and want poor people to borrow even more. Its appalling!

I wonder if we will ever be able to see balance sheets?

5:40 pm, November 16, 2008

 
Anonymous Secret Santa said...

Mark Still News -

"the people in this country are thick"

Can someone print this guy's name.

I want this to show up when you google his name.

9:11 pm, November 16, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

Labour has to ‘fix the roof’ for working people

Jon Cruddas MP explains why and how the state must step in with radical measures to expand public housing and avert repossessions

The credit crunch has suddenly exposed many failures of free markets but none as starkly as those of the housing market, which are themselves both a cause and a result of the wider economic crisis.


http://www.chartist.org.uk/articles/econsoc/nov08cruddas.htm

9:28 pm, November 16, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

Hi secret santa

I must be careful not to disclose his name?

n someone print this guy's name.

I want this to show up when you google his name

9:29 pm, November 16, 2008

 
Anonymous Stirling said...

'The people in this country are thick'.

Too true.

They post here regularly with fatuous claims about Cameron being the New Messiah.

9:36 am, November 17, 2008

 
Anonymous Rich said...

Well the details of these bailouts as you are probably aware are hidden under the official secrets act as are the balance sheets.

There is a good chance the money may never be paid back as we have no right to ask or check....but maybe that is me just being paranoid.

The problem for the average person is understanding the consequences of pouring a trillion pounds to pay for a decade of bad debt. The figures are so huge that It is very hard to comprehend but at the same time it is very obvious that the money could have been spent elsewhere.

Get a calculator out and work out the cost to every person of working age and you soon realise that this will be with us for more than just a generation.

It's very strange how ALL governments can refuse money for services, equipment and drugs yet always find the money for wars and when it suits them.

Were we to eager to come to the aid of banks? My opinion is that we should have nationalized them on the brink and saved ourselves a few trillion quid. I have no sympathy with these organizations at all.

What really concerns me that all politicians seem so eager to allow the banks to return to normality. They want them to start lending again at 2007 levels to save an over inflated property market and over inflated economy.

But if property is too expensive for those on average wages then surely the fundamental question should be whether it would be better to control lending and let property prices return to affordable levels.

The second question should be whether capitalism is sustainable. Can economies continue to grow if they rely purely on borrowed money. Surely we are just postponing the inevitable crash?

11:16 am, November 17, 2008

 
Blogger Mark Still News said...

The property market should not be bailed out, as it requires adjustment, which of course is to go down to affordable levels. House prices are overvalues by at least 75%, so the should really be at least 1 quater of what they are currently and even that would be a lot of money!

12:43 am, November 18, 2008

 

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