ComRes was not a rogue
Lots of Tories wrote off the last ComRes opinion poll - the one showing a 1% Tory lead - as a rogue. Looks like they were wrong as a new ComRes poll tonight shows almost exactly the same figures - Con 37% (unchanged), Lab 36% (unchanged) and LDs 14% (-3%) - which would deliver a Commons majority of about 20 for Labour.
This all seems to tally up with what I'm finding as Agent in a council by-election in a marginal ward at the moment (albeit a Lab vs Green marginal). The seat in question is a mix of two different types of what have historically been core Labour territory - very ethnically mixed streets with some council estates, and then an area of "Guardian-reader" territory (I live there and I read the Guardian!). I've inputted canvass data from about 10% of the electors in the ward recently and it all shows either our core vote holding up or previous undecideds and supporters of other parties moving in our direction. On the estate we hit today a team of 8 of us working for two hours failed to find anyone admitting to supporting another party.
I'm not saying that the final result will reflect that, but for now at least the picture seems to be Labour supporters rallying round the flag.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 8:14 pm
6 Comments:
I agree with your coments regarding core votes, unfortunatley it requires a fair bit of leg room to contact, corral, and motivate.
I hope in Hackney you have the historical records and computer skills to produce meaningful GOTV data.
If you refer to council bye election actual results over the last few months the reallity seems to match the theory, but this does not give any room for complacency.
What is unforgivable is "Whistling in the dark" it's as equally daaging as the "Corp' Jones's" of this world running about and shouting "we are doomed"
GW
8:48 pm, December 13, 2008
Questions need to be asked now about David Cameron's future. 'Mr.Sunshine' was a ruse which fooled no-one, then he became 'Mr.Nasty', and made a chump of himself trying to look tough. Where does he go from here? He cannot keep endlessly repositioning himself. Not without wrecking his credibility at any road.
8:32 am, December 14, 2008
I think many have started to realise just what a Cameron government would be like.
I'm not happy with all Labour are doing but they are still preferable to the alternative - and I regard Clegg as very much to the right politically
7:06 pm, December 14, 2008
And when you wake up and find out that your jobs on the line then maybe then you will start to question the decisions made by this government,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/14/credit-crunch-retail-housing-families
I'm wondering how many people will vote Labour once their job has been listed as a cut or the fact they now have a property worth a lot less than when they bought it 5 years ago.
But Labour are going to keep borrowing and spending until the pounds is a worthless currency. Kiss goodbye to holidays in Europe for a while people as this government has made it 50% more expensive.
3 Million unemployed by the Summer, 5 Million on incapacity benefits, plunging pensions, plunging savings and probably less than 20 million actually working. The sums don't add up at all.
11:12 pm, December 14, 2008
Re: WE NEED A NEW PARTY Or a reconditioned LP
The people's flag is deepest red,
It shrouded oft our martyred dead,
And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold,
Their hearts' blood dyed its ev'ry fold.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
Look 'round, the Frenchman loves its blaze,
The sturdy German chants its praise,
In Moscow's vaults its hymns are sung
Chicago swells the surging throng.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
It waved above our infant might,
When all ahead seemed dark as night;
It witnessed many a deed and vow,
We must not change its colour now.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
It well recalls the triumphs past,
It gives the hope of peace at last;
The banner bright, the symbol plain,
Of human right and human gain.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
It suits today the weak and base,
Whose minds are fixed on pelf and place
To cringe before the rich man's frown,
And haul the sacred emblem down.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
With heads uncovered swear we all
To bear it onward till we fall;
Come dungeons dark or gallows grim,
This song shall be our parting hymn.
Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
Join a New party now!
http://www.newworker.org/
1:34 am, December 15, 2008
And when the unemployment levels keep rising for month after month after month, you'll see the Labour voters rallying round the front door of the local job agency.
9:59 am, December 15, 2008
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