A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Labour's most leftwing and most moderate CLPs

One for the Labour internal election trainspotters.

If you know where to look you can read the CLP by CLP detail of this year's one-member-one-vote NEC results.

I've done a bit of analysis to produce league tables based on the aggregrate level of % support for the left's Grassroots Alliance slate.

The sensible 20 least "left" CLPs (worst result for the GRA first):

Salford & Eccles CLP (home constituency of candidate Peter Wheeler)
Ealing Southall CLP (home constituency of candidate Sonika Nirwal - also the largest CLP in the UK)
Orkney CLP (admittedly not a huge sample size!)
West Bromwich West CLP
Warley CLP
Ipswich CLP
Glasgow South CLP (well done Tom Harris MP)
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East CLP
Northern Ireland Members
Pendle CLP (home constituency of candidate Azhar Ali)
Rossendale & Darwen CLP (I think this is in the same local authority as Pendle)
East Renfrewshire CLP
Bury South CLP
Liverpool Riverside CLP
Oldham E & Saddleworth CLP
Chelmsford CLP
Old Southwark & Bermondsey CLP
Cheltenham CLP (must be the Brian Hughes effect)
Gainsborough CLP
Clwyd South CLP

And the 20 most supportive of the left slate were (best result for GRA first):
Hereford and South Herefordshire CLP
North Herefordshire CLP
Rochford and Southend East CLP
Stourbridge CLP
Shetland CLP
Bournemouth West CLP
Orpington CLP
East Devon CLP
Newport West CLP
Tatton CLP
New Forest East CLP
Wantage CLP
Bristol East CLP (the Benn factor still in evidence 25 years after he lost the seat?)
Shrewsbury and Atcham CLP
Mid Worcestershire CLP
Broxbourne CLP
Chingford & Woodford Green CLP
Nottingham South CLP (constituency of GRA candidate Christine Shawcroft)
Southend West CLP
Wrexham CLP

Interestingly only 5 of the 20 most pro-GRA CLPs are Labour-held, as opposed to 14 of the 20 who backed the left least.

My own home patch of Hackney was mid-table but in the more moderate half - Hackney North was 405th of 635 CLPs for the left, Hackney South 426th.


Anonymous Andrea said...

"Rossendale & Darwen CLP (I think this is in the same local authority as Pendle)"

R&D contains Rossendale Borough area and parts of Blackburn with Darwen.
There's Burnley between Rossendale and Pendle

Very interesting stats anyway.
Are there stats about turnouts?

9:43 pm, December 16, 2008

Blogger Merseymike said...

But perhaps more interesting would be, the total membership of each CLP, and how this compares with 1997. And the turnout of voters.

10:40 pm, December 16, 2008

Blogger Hughes Views said...

When I reported the results of your analysis to our constituency meeting last night I'm afraid the reaction wasn't unalloyed joy. Shock and horrified disbelief would be nearer the mark. It seems that many forgot to return their ballot papers. How did my pals down the Golden Valley by-pass in Gloucester do and, as Andrea asks: "are there stats about turnouts"?

We, by the way, are not content merely to have no Labour MP, we now have no Borough or County councillors either; our only Labour representation is a tiny share of Glyn Ford our Region's sole Labour MEP. Hey hum.

Here's a test for members to determine whether they're a glass half full or half empty supporter. I thought of it as we went through our quiz answers last night:

The current Labour Parliamentary majority is:

(a) a remarkable third term achievement being, as it is, far higher than any won in the 50 years from 1946 to 1996. or

(b) less than a third what it was in 1997.

8:45 am, December 17, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Gloucester CLP was almost exactly mid-table - 346th best of 635 for the left.

8:49 am, December 17, 2008

Blogger John Wiseman said...

How about St Helens South and Whiston Luke?


10:31 am, December 17, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

438th so the rest of your CLP don't entirely share your politics John.

10:34 am, December 17, 2008

Blogger Jackson Jeffrey Jackson said...

Thanks for that Luke, I'll make sure I holiday in Shetland rather than Orkney now.

Any way of getting the full list up somehow? There are plenty of CLPs I'd like to know about.

10:49 am, December 17, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

I don't think it is appropriate to publish the whole list as it has been published on membersnet rather than on the open bit of the party website so the intention is clearly that only party members should be able to see it - the list includes membership numbers by CLP which I assume the party considers confidential as they could be useful ammo for opposition strategists.

The ranking by GRA vote is my own calculation derived from the party data - happy to list any CLPs you are interested in.

Orkney & Shetland are unique in that they are separate (very small) CLPs because they have separate MSPs, but must select jointly for their Westminster PPC as they only have the one MP.

11:06 am, December 17, 2008

Anonymous Ben said...

How about Westminster? (My prejudices suggest plenty of middle class members being stupidly left wing, but I may be wrong.)

1:25 am, December 18, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Westminster North is 280th; Cities of London & Westminster is 550th, making it one of the 100 most moderate memberships in the country. I imagine both results will be deeply disappointing to respective residents Francis Prideaux and Peter Kenyon.

8:03 am, December 18, 2008

Anonymous Andrea said...

in how many CLPs GRA "won" and in how many LF "won"?

1:11 pm, December 18, 2008

Anonymous Haggerston Harry said...

To misquote Shakespeare: "Thus statistics does make anoraks of us all"

Can you give us the ranking for Hackney South please?

4:50 pm, December 18, 2008

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Hackney S is in the original post.

5:05 pm, December 18, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am quite surprised that Southend West features amongst the more left-wing CLPs. I am the CLP secretary (until February) and this does not reflect my experience.

2:39 pm, December 19, 2008


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