Predictions for 2009
My work colleague Ewan Watt has tagged me to make some predictions for 2009, so here goes, though mine are more of the nature of random guesses and in some cases, wildly optimistic hopes:
- Labour will narrowly win the Seven Sisters Ward by-election in Haringey on 15 January.
- Labour will win the Stoke Newington Central Ward by-election in Hackney on 29 January with a swing from Green to Labour. (this bullet point Promoted by Luke Akehurst of Flat 1, 8 Beatty Road, London, N16 8EB on behalf of Louisa Thomson of 81A Farleigh Road, London, N16 7TD. Hosted (printed) by Blogger.com (Google Inc) of 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043 who are not responsible for any of the contents of this post).
- The Unite/Amicus General Secretary election will be a photo-finish between Kevin Coyne and incumbent Derek Simpson.
- I will throw myself into contesting a parliamentary selection somewhere, the laws of probability meaning that there must be somewhere I'm keen to stand that isn't an All Women Shortlist.
- There won't be a General Election in the first quarter of the year.
- But Labour will edge narrowly ahead in the polls by March.
- The General Election will be called to coincide with the 4 June Euro Elections - why allow these to happen as stand-alones when they are usually a bad news story for Labour?
- Labour will emerge as either the largest party in a hung parliament, or with a very narrow overall majority.
- Labour will make against the tide parliamentary gains in Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, Manchester Withington, Rochdale and Hornsey & Wood Green.
- The BNP will win MEPs in a couple of larger regions in the Euro Elections, the results of which aren't declared until the Sunday after the General Election - but fewer than they would have got if the elections had been held separately from the GE and had a lower turnout.
- Peter Hain and David Blunkett will return to Government.
- Compass will attack Labour's fourth victory as further evidence of Brown selling-out.
- All three political parties will end 2009 with the same leaders they started with.