A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Council By-Election Results

Last night's council by-election results were particularly interesting as they included two Lab vs Con marginal wards in electorally important outer-London boroughs, Croydon and Enfield.

Both these and a seat in Cannock Chase in the West Midlands showed an increase in the Labour vote, with the Enfield seat gained on a large swing. This suggests the Tory poll lead may be a little hollow. June election back on the cards?

Cannock West Ward, Cannock Chase DC. Con hold. Con 654 (60.6%, -14.1), Lab 333 (30.8%, +5.5), LD 93 (8.6%, +8.6). Swing of 9.8% from Con to Lab since 2008. This is a safe Tory ward in a parliamentary seat Labour gained in 1992.

Waddon Ward, LB Croydon. Con hold. Con 1462 (46.0%, +2.7), Lab 1222 (38.5%, +0.7), BNP 157 (4.9%, +4.9), LD 150 (4.7%, -2.7), Green 115 (3.6%, -5.4), UKIP 48 (1.5%, +1.5), People's Choice 13 (0.4%, +0.4), OMRLP 11 (0.3%, +0.3). Swing of 1% from Lab to Con since 2006. This is a key ward in terms of control of Croydon Council, though it sits in the safe Tory Croydon S parliamentary seat.

Jubilee Ward, LB Enfield. Lab gain from Con. Lab 1346 (51.3%, +7.8), Con 1049 (40%, -3.4), LD 69 (2.6%, +2.6), Green 60 (2.3%, -10.9), UKIP 59 (2.2%, +2.2), Ind 41 (1.6%, +1.6). Swing of 5.6% from Con to Lab since 2006 in a ward that was split 2 Lab/1 Con in 2006. Congratulations to new councillor Rohini Simbodyal, one of London Labour's rising stars (aged 21!), on this victory. This is in Edmonton constituency, a 1997 Labour gain.

Grange Park Ward, South Northants DC. Con hold. Con 407 (76.1%), LD 128 (23.9%). Uncontested in 2007.

9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Out of interest, what was the turn out. Doubt GB will see this as the turning point in his electoral fortunes!

8:54 am, February 13, 2009

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

29.2%. About 10% lower than in 2006 which is not bad given the weather conditions yesterday.

I think the pattern evident in Seven Sisters, Stoke Newington Central, Waddon and Jubilee is one Brown should be looking at. At the very least it says something good about the state of Labour's grassroots organisation.

9:04 am, February 13, 2009

 
Blogger CROWN said...

There is a huge difference between local voting and national voting. My experience is that Labour councillors are in touch with local issues that matter to Labour voters. However Labour nationally is in touch with nobody and is effectively leaderless.

It reminds me of the 2001 and 2005 local and general elections. The Tories gained councils and councillors at a local level and lost nationally.

9:24 am, February 13, 2009

 
Anonymous Rich said...

But this is local politics not national and people don't tend to pay a lot of attention to council elections.

Swing voters tend not to vote in local elections.

I mood I get is very different. You only have to talk to people to realise that there are not that many Labour supporters left.

12:29 pm, February 13, 2009

 
Blogger My Left Foot said...

These results should serve as a wake up call to Labour's grassroots and show that we can still win, despite what the polls and the pundits may think. I certainly think the message to all Labour supporters is to campaign, campaign, campaign, the stakes couldn't be higher

1:56 pm, February 13, 2009

 
Anonymous Rich said...

These results show that Labour voters know they have to turn out, while the remaining are waiting for the election that counts.

You can't and won't win an election on Labour core support...there simply isn't enough of you.

The conservatives will win by a landslide and I can't see the Lib Dems gaining either way. People are going to vote tactically in way that has the best chance of removing Labour. They don't like Brown and his cabinet and those few good Labour MPs that have stood by their beliefs may well be saved by loyal support but they will be few in numbers.

2:24 pm, February 13, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see our resident idiot has forgotten his advocacy of the British Nazi Party yesterday.

Bit late to try and reinvent your self as a "moderate" Rich.

GW

9:51 pm, February 13, 2009

 
Anonymous Rich said...

Obviously I'm a Nazi, yes very clear. I wouldn't label myself right or left wing.....I have some views that could be considered right wing and some that could be considered left....??? I don't get your point.

My wife is jewish and I'm catholic so I hardly fall into your neat pigeon holed Nazi stereo type.

10:07 am, February 14, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't worry, most people get the point.

And now blogging shuts down whilst we disapear to Cardiff for the Rugby.

GW

1:16 pm, February 14, 2009

 

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