Don't believe everything you read on politicalbetting.com
Usually I am a great fan of the polling analysis on www.politicalbetting.com.
But the site is written by a Lib Dem and most of the commenters are Tory (with the notable exception of Nick Palmer MP) so sometimes they get their internal Labour tips really badly wrong.
There was an example yesterday, where based on complete hearsay the site said Home Secretary Jacqui Smith might be moved from marginal Redditch to a safe constituency in Wolverhampton.
This is of course nonsense, as anyone inside the Labour Party knows.
"Chicken runs" as practiced by large numbers of Tory MPs in the run-up to 1997 (examples being Peter Bottomley going from Eltham to Worthing, and David Amess from Basildon to Southend) are banned by Labour's rulebook and there's no way round that. They are banned for the very good reason that they send signals of defeatism and remove the party's incumbency advantage in marginal seats. You'd need to change the Party rulebook at Annual Conference (I think it has to be passed by two successive conferences) or run the risk of judicial review by other disappointed candidates to get past that rule.
The Wolverhampton seats PB.com talks about have as their candidates Rob Marris MP, whose seat is just as marginal as Redditch, Minister Pat McFadden MP, and former Geoff Hoon Special Adviser Emma Reynolds, who has only just been selected after a tough battle, and gave up her job to be candidate. I can't see any of them stepping aside for anyone, however senior, even if they were asked to.
Finally, does no one at PB.com apply logic?
If Labour loses Jacqui's Redditch seat, we have lost the General Election. We won't hold the post of Home Secretary or any other Secretary, so it would be pointless to have saved the Home Secretary by moving her to another seat.
Labour MPs like Jacqui Smith in the seats that make up our majority have known they are were in for a tough defensive battle ever since 2005 and are fighting a tenacious battle to hold their seats and keep Labour in government. The Tories shouldn't underestimate the ability of local campaigning and incumbency to give them a tough fight even in seats that should go blue on a uniform national swing; and unlike them in 1997 we are sticking by our guns and defending every inch of Labour territory, not cutting and running to the Labour equivalents of Worthing or Southend.