A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Spring arrives with Mori

Tory lead falls by half from 20% to 10% with Mori today.

Spring has arrived ...

Con 42% (-6)
Lab 32% (+4)
LD 14% (-3)

This change is worth nearly 90 extra MPs for Labour.


OpenID warelane said...

It is only a poll ... however it is good news.

I have always believed that the Tory lead is soft and I cite as evidence the reaction I get when canvassing. There is no appetite for a Tory government outside of the usual die-hards. Our supporters are understandably worried about the economy.

1:54 pm, March 17, 2009

Anonymous Fifth Donkey said...

warelane is right. It's only a poll, and only one poll counts.

But it is disingenuous to say there is no appetite for a tory government. Cameron is getting +22% approval ratings against -25% for Brown. Thisis not just Labour's voters being a bit jelly-kneed about the economy.

Anyone going canvassing will always come away with a better view of their prospects than they should expect. Why?

1st, the Tories never talk to you on the doorstep anyway.
2nd, confirmation bias, you tend to pay more attention to the things that support your view than the things that don't (this is not a political or partisan point - everyone does it, if you think you don't then you're too niave to waste my time on anyway).
3rd, and crucially for Labour supporters at the moment, there are fewer undecideds. That means that the people you speak to are more liekly to say "Yes, we support you" than "Oh, I don't know..."
The second is an invitation to be pursuaded. You're not hearing thast at the moment, becasue many of the undecided are now going to vote blue.
That means proportionately you hear more supportive comments, and that leads back to confirmation bias.

The Tory lead is not soft. The loss of support Labour is experiencing is a significant change in electoral fortunes. Like Brown and the economy, unless he understands that the change is real, and largely his fault, he'll never be able to overcome it. Unless Labour realise the electoral map has changed and it is their fault, they'll not be elected again for a long time.

4:34 pm, March 17, 2009

Blogger Merseymike said...

I think the Tory lead is soft in the sense that there is no great appetite for a Tory government: its more that Labour is unpopular and that people are bored and fed up with them.

The Tories have very few clear policies, and part of me thinks that they will struggle to cope with current problems every bit as much as the current government

4:59 pm, March 17, 2009

Blogger Duncan Hall said...

I agree with Mike. We are enormously unpopular right now, and there's no point pretending otherwise. And that unpopularity is coming from a variety of different directions - there isn't one anti-government "narrative" to tackle, there are dozens. But I don't sense the slightest enthusiasm for the notion of a Tory government.

As such - I wouldn't 100% rule out the possibility of Labour being re-elected even without some major change of fortunes (a hung parliament more likely than an actual majority). However, re-election under the circumstances of being so very unpopular - without any major changes to counter that unpopularity - could actually be rather dangerous.

The elecoral system is stacked up against the Tories a little this time; the Tories are still not popular: the anti-Labour vote will go everywhere and nowhere. Even were there an election next month, with no real changes to Labour's strategy or approach, it is possible the Tories could lose it. This is not like the build up to 1997. People are abandoning Labour in numbers - this is by no means a message of complacency - but they are not lining up behind Cameron.

I think some comment on reaction to a Labour victory under such circumstances (let's say more people vote Tory than Labour, but Labour get the most seats and form a coalition with the Lib Dems) is probably necessary.

9:09 pm, March 17, 2009

Anonymous Rich said...

But the last poll showed the conservatives way ahead and Labour in negative. The indicator is people you talk to...and it is not just die hards that are going to vote conservative.

The mood on the street about the current government is one that indicates people are looking to remove Brown. They will vote for the opposition if Brown is in power as they still don't agree with the way he got the job.

The last few months has seen a number of complete disasters for Brown, the latest being the failure of NHS targets. Virtually all the governments policies are showing signs of cracks.

The government is tired and lacks ideas and direction. You get the sense they are just clinging onto power and putting up with Brown because it is too late to remove him.

Putting aside all the economic problems the country is falling apart. What we need is some fresh ideas and not to keep flogging policies that are simply not working.

10:46 pm, March 18, 2009

Anonymous stephen said...

The indicator is people you talk to...and it is not just die hards that are going to vote conservative

As a formerly staunch Labour voter, I am certainly not going to vote Labour unless the party CHANGES and changes dramatically. I simply don't see any chance that it will change, because those who run the party don't think thay are doing anything wrong. They will continue pushing the insane ID Cards scheme, continue to push mass surveillance and data acquisition. I won't vote Tory; I'll probably stay at home or vote Liberal. But then I live in safe Tory seat so my vote is quite literally valueless. If I lived in a Tory/Labour marginal, and if the Labour guy was the usual rent-a-quote authoritarian arsehole, I would probably break the habit of a life time and vote Tory just to get the Labourite out. Yes that is a measure of how much some us hate you now.

11:02 am, March 21, 2009


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