A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Council By-elections

Tonight's results:

St Helens Ward, Barnsley MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1520 (59.8%, +13.8), BNP 590 (23.2%, -7.1), Ind 171 (6.7%, -7.5), UKIP 94 (3.7%, +3.7), Con 89 (3.5%, -6), LD 78 (3.1%, +3.1). Swing of 10.5% from BNP to Lab since 2008. Loss of this seat would have lost Labour control of Barnsley.

Chineham Ward, Basingstoke & Deane DC. Con hold. Con 898 (63%, +19), LD 249 (17.5%, +7.7), Ind 163 (11.4%, -29.4), Lab 98 (6.9%< +1.4), Ind 18 (1.3%, +1.3). Swing of 5.7% from LD to Con since 2008.

Mayor of Bedford. LD gain from Ind. First Round: LD 9428 (26.8%, +2.6), Con 9,105 (25.9%, +1.3), Ind 7631 (21.7%), Ind 4316 (12.3%) (Combined Ind vote -2.7% compared to Independent Mayor Branston's vote in 2007), Lab 3482 (9.9%, -1), Green 1183 (3.4%). Swing of 0.7% from Con to LD since 2007. Final Round: LD 13552, Con 11543.

Hanworth & Birch Hill Ward, Bracknell Forest DC. Con hold. Con 640 (42.4%, -14.2), Lab 377 (25%, -1.9), LD 206 (13.7%, +13.7), UKIP 139 (9.2%, +9.2), Green 77 (5.1%, -11.3), BNP 70 (4.6%, +4.6). Swing of 6.2% from Con to Lab since 2007.

Heath Hayes East & Wimblebury Ward, Cannock Chase DC. LD gain from Lab. LD 314 (30%, +8.6), Con 300 (28.6%, -11.1), Lab 267 (25.5%, -0.2), BNP 116 (11.1%, +11.1), UKIP 51 (4.9%, +4.9). Swing of 9.9% from Con to LD since 2008. This is in a long-shot (number 196) Tory parliamentary target seat.

Northgate Ward, Crawley BC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 527 (43.3%, +19), Con 446 (36.7%, +18.9), LD 230 (18.9%, -26.6), Justice 13 (1.1%, +1.1). Swing of 0.1% from Con to Lab since 2007. Labour picks up a councillor in the second most marginal parliamentary seat in the country.

Town Ward, LB Hammersmith & Fulham. Con hold. Con 970 (63.4%, +0.8), LD 289 (18.9%, +2.8), Lab 271 (17.7%, -3.6). Swing of 1% from Con to LD since 2006.

Boston NW Division, Lincolnshire CC. Con hold. Con 597 (38.7%, +13.2), BNP 581 (37.7%, +17.1), Lab 204 (13.2%, +1.9), Lib Dem 160 (10.4%, +3.2). Swing of 2% from Con to BNP since June this year.

The Runtons Ward, North Norfolk DC. Con hold. Con 524 (52.1%, +2), LD 454 (45.1%, -4.8), Green 14 (1.4%, +1.4), Lab 14 (1.4%, +1.4). Swing of 3.4% from LD to Con since 2007. A good Tory result in their number 155 target parliamentary seat.

Hipswell Ward, Richmondshire DC. Con hold. Con 144 (39%, +1.7), LD 126 (34.1%, +7.7), Ind 99 (26.8%, -9.6). Swing of 4.7% from Con to LD since 2007.

Middleham Ward, Richmondshire DC. Con hold. Con 253 (85.5%, +10), LD 43 (14.5%, -10). Swing of 10% from LD to Con since 2007.

Leyland St Mary's Ward, South Ribble DC. Con hold. Con 709 (74.9%, +6.3), Lab 237 (25.1%, +6.2). Swing of 0.1% from Lab to Con since 2007. This like the Crawley one is in a key Tory parliamentary target seat (number 50).

Taunton Lyngford Ward, Taunton Deane DC. LD hold. LD 523 (51%, +6.5), Con 274 (26.7%, -1.3), Lab 164 (16%, -11.6), UKIP 64 (6.2%, +6.2). Swing of 3.9% from Con to LD since 2007. This is in the Tories' number 26 target marginal seat.


Anonymous Andrea said...

419.Barnsley MBC- St Helens ward

Lab 1520
BNP 590
Ind 171
Con 89
LD 78

turnout: 31.6%

11:49 pm, October 15, 2009

Blogger Mark Still News said...

Labour are the party that saved the Banks by selling our souls off for it and now the shits are getting huge pay and bonuses and laughing at us with a cigar in one hand a a champagne bottle in the other!

The whole thing is despicable!

12:25 am, October 16, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

This place feels more like Fantasy Island by the minute.

I can see Bob Ainsworth in a dwarfs suit running round (probably avoiding bullets from our troops - should they have been issued with live ammo) shouting about 'elecoptors and screaming "da plane, da plane" at the sky while Gordon Brown throws mobile phones at him and Peter Mandleson, still in his Pantomime Horse outfit after the conference season, keeps trying to mount a quite enraged John Prescott.

Harriet Harman catches one of Gordons phones when he coughed and it flew out from his lower jaw. She then crashed her car whilst on the mobile which just goes to show not all women can multi task.

She normally promotes women so lends Jack Dromey, her brow beaten husband, most of her underwear to stand in a safe Labour seat - should such a thing exist any more.

(Jack's looking for work since the party coffers dried up and it's understandable he needs a safe seat far from his wife although if they just moved into her families home there would be more than enough room)

Tessa Jowell's husband was not available for comment since the Italian authorities are questioning him which is understandable for a Tax Avoidance Lawyer, the usual career choice for Labour Ministers.

Alan Johnson appears on Question Time to run down UKIP members, quite rightly sacked from their party for unproven 'financial irregularities', whilst supporting that Jacky Smith Home Secretary who's against Porn and who charges the taxpayers of the UK £116000 to live in her sisters box room once a week or less.

Of course Smiths husband still gets paid as a secretary by the taxpayer along with her £400 a month food allowance.

Johnson in fairness only steals £200 a month for food unlike the £800 a month from Cooper and Balls.

Gordon Brown uses the services of A man to look into fiddles by MP's on expenses and gets a bill for £12416 paid in cash to his brother to clean a two bedroomed fat even though he lives in Downing Street...

...for goodness sake roll on the election and stop this lot :-(

8:32 am, October 16, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Luke I think you missed this...

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points Saturday, October 10th, 2009

CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5)

At last a survey where certainty to vote is key!

We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades.

A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote - something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is driving a lot of the Labour movements at the moment.

The Tory 45% share equals the best ever total from the firm and the 19 point margin is the second highest. Much of the change on the last ICM poll, taken immediately after the Lib Dem conference, is down to a decline in Clegg’s party’s share.

All we are seeing here, though, is the standard conference polling effect with the party that’s been on most recently getting a boost. As I say every time new numbers come out - we need to wait until the conference effect has worked its way through the system before coming to hard conclusions.

Even so for the conference season to finish with polls showing deficits like this will only add to the collapse in morale of the Labour activist base. It’s hard to see just how the party can stage a recovery without some radical changes at the top - something for which the movement doesn’t appear to have the stomach.

Mike Smithson

8:34 am, October 16, 2009

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Yes I did miss it, and two days later a poll with fieldwork done by the same people showed the Tory lead half that at 10%, so me missing a poll that so quickly became a historical curiosity doesn't seem that big a deal.

8:47 am, October 16, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Luke - not criticising you man, just looking for a bit of objectivity that's all.

9:24 am, October 16, 2009

Blogger Guido Fawkes said...

Let me help you with that late result Luke. Yesterday afternoon Gordon Brown visited Leyland Trucks in Leyland to support the South Ribble Labour MP and that night Labour were humiliated in the Leyland St Mary's by-election a seat they once held!

Con 709
Lab 239

A swing to the Conservatives from two years ago when they gained the Council - recording 65% of the vote across the whole constituency.

10:41 am, October 16, 2009

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Hmm yes Guido a swing of 0.1% with Labour's vote also up by over 6%. Very impressive.

12:36 pm, October 16, 2009

Blogger tory boys never grow up said...

Good to see Mr Dale's canvassing in Bracknell had such a positive effect.

1:11 pm, October 16, 2009

Anonymous Paul said...

Leyland's just up the road from me and I know that after a tough couple of years when it's true that the braches had got a bit sleepy, they are really pulling it together now.

It's also true that the staggeringly incompetent tory admin, which has just abolished ALL vol sector grants AND made up stuff to make its budget balance, is being really badly shown up for what it is. I have great hopes for the decent, hardworking, effective MP there, David Borrow (you know, the one Dale complained about for having coffee with his consituents, being re-elected.

Good coverage as ever, Luke.

Cracking result in Barnsley, too, and interesting to see the Crawley Lib Dem (incumbent, I think) get realy badly squeezed, though that might just be local 'crap councillor' factors.

7:45 pm, October 16, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paul are you mad?

You have a lying dithering thieving unelected PM who is the least popular PM EVER - EVER back to when polling began and you think a couple of council elections are worth mentioning?

Look at the colour of the councils across this country - BLUE - Tory.

People like you do the Tories job for them - look at the last Labour conference and not one delegate had the guts to mention the elephant in the room - Brown.

The man is a disgrace and should be thrown out by the party, a new leader in place for the election and try again.

Keeping up this nonsense and daydreaming will only benefit the Tories in the long and short run.

GET RID OF THAT USELESS UNELECTED TWAT BROWN - then we may be able to limit the damage.

Do you really think our members will knock on doors for the Labour Party with Brown still in place?

We will get lynched - and deservedly so.

7:05 pm, October 17, 2009

Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Anonymous asks "Do you really think our members will knock on doors for the Labour Party with Brown still in place?"

They already are. In my borough we canvassed 1,000 electors this month with 20 canvassers out every weekend plus local canvassing, leafleting and roving surgeries in almost every ward. This is fairly typical of all the London boroughs, with even higher levels of activity where there are parliamentary marginals.

9:27 pm, October 17, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Luke. Anyone who campaign's for this lot must be nuts.

The world has gone mad!

11:42 pm, October 17, 2009


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