A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Labour closes the gap to just 6%

Tonight's Ipsos MORI poll shows a huge boost for Labour, with the Tory lead down by from 17% to 6%:

Con 37% (-6%)
Lab 31% (+5%)
LD 17% (-2%)
Others 15% (+3%)

On a uniform swing this would produce a hung parliament: 296 Tory MPs, 278 Labour, 44 Lib Dems and 32 others.

This is the lowest Tory lead MORI have found since December 2008.

17 Comments:

Anonymous East End Red said...

I know this is a bit previous but I cant resist; this for all those tory boys who read this site "Ere we go, Ere we go, Ere we go" see you in the Boleyn. Of course the team whose anthem is the Red Flag are the next visitors to Upton Park. Perhaps, just perhaps the victory celebrations for the Eton boys and their yummy mummy friends are a little premature. (sorry Luke couldnt resist the wind up)

12:03 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

and if we dumped Gordon we'd be the biggest party. Miliband for PM

1:17 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Sir Egbert Pimm-Smythe said...

Botheration! What is this country coming to? We have a strong Tory party led by the best leader in the world right now and voters don't appreciate this. I blame 'The X Factor'. All this 'Jedward' mumbo-jumbo is scrambling people's minds. For goodness' sake Britain, wake up before its too late. Pah!

9:51 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous The Real Arnold said...

Ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho! Christmas has come early this year!

10:28 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Rich said...

The SNP are predicting a hung parliament and I'm inclined to agree at the moment.

The conservatives have turned off a lot of voters in their approach to reducing spending. Most people don't actually want spending cuts and lots of Brits work in the public sector so why would they vote to lose their jobs.

A good example is what has happened at Nottingham County Council. It is criminal what the conservative council has done. Making people redundant is not the way to handle a recession. Yes we need to cut costs but not by sacking those providing a service.What about cutting the wages of the top earners in the public sector to reduce the need for job cuts.

I do think peoples opinion of Labour may have improved by not enough to give you 6%. People are probably turning back to Labour because they simply don't like the sounds of Camerons cuts. Myself included.

11:15 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous The Real Arnold said...

Dump and Brown we may just do it...

11:23 am, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My guess for a longtime has been a hung parliament with the Toris the largest Party.

If I was Cameron I would be warning my new councils e.g. Nottinghamshire,Somerset to do little until after the election. Their 'slash and burn' tactics will certainly not endear them to many - certainly enough to stop an outright majority if they don't watch out

3:56 pm, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous The Genuine Arnold said...

I actually think that if we can get rid of Brown we may be able to do this - even if it was hung it could be in our favour.

Thinking about it the Tories are mad with this doom and gloom stuff - Blair got in on an optimistic manifesto and if we had Johnson we might just make it.

We need something to distract from the Telegraph and Gilligan with the Iraq stuff - a new leader could be it.

4:07 pm, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm afraid the ranting from another 'anonymous' probably gives the lie to any possibility Labour has. The 'yummy mummys' are just those people who voted Labour in 97 and 01 and were courted into the bif tent. The fact jobbing Labourites despise such people (anprobably always did) points to the problems of climbing the electoral hill again.

The polls remain all over the place. Who knows what they really mean. One recent one gave DC a 19% lead, and that also seemed a one off.

7:21 pm, November 22, 2009

 
Anonymous Justin Hinchcliffe said...

I see Compass is now advertising (and paying?) on LD Voice. http://www.libdemvoice.org/john-lamont-msp-expenses-16899.html#comments

^_^

4:55 pm, November 23, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hip Hip hooray!

Come on close this gap!

Actually a 6% lead may not be a bad thing for Labour as its a sign not to get complacent and work to beat these Tories!

8:31 pm, November 23, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Half a mo. Not two days later and you'e down to 22%, just one percentage point up on the Lib Dems.

That's according to Political Betting.

It fits. You're fucked. You're going down for a decade.

11:54 pm, November 23, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I suspect Luke won't be blogging on the latest poll giving the Tories a 17 point lead. As I said in an earlier comment, the polls are alll over the place and I doubt a 17 point lead is accurate either, but take an average over recent months and the writing appears to be on the wall.

8:57 am, November 24, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The poll that has Labour in the worst position is likely to be the most accurate," paraphrased from Smithson on Political Betting.

It's all over. The fat lady has sung. The parrot is deceased.

No politics for Luke and pals for a couple of generations. Get a new trainset.

3:13 pm, November 24, 2009

 
Anonymous Jamie T said...

"Half a mo. Not two days later and you'e down to 22%, just one percentage point up on the Lib Dems.

That's according to Political Betting.

It fits. You're fucked. You're going down for a decade."

Hold on one darn minute!

Angus Reid is so to speak a "New Kid on the Block". It seems to give a disproportionately high Conservative Poll lead compared to the established Polling Firms such as YouGov, Populus and Ipsos MORI.

To get a better idea as to whether Angus Reid is rather unusual, or not as the case may be, in the high Poll lead it gives the Conservatives, we will have to see more of their Polls in the future. this will ascertain whether Angus Reids Poll figures/ results are broadly in line with YouGov etc...

In any case, as the saying goes: "It aint over Till the Fat Lady Sings".

(No offence meant to Fat Ladies either). ;)

10:37 pm, November 24, 2009

 
Anonymous Jamie T said...

"The fat lady has sung".

Err Not so fast!... The Fat Lady Hasnt Sung... Yet...

We havent had the Election yet, no Ballots have been cast, and No Results Declared...

10:43 pm, November 24, 2009

 
Blogger kris said...

I might just go to one of hackney's many betting shops and put a flutter on labour to win.

Cameron is letting this gift slip through his fingers. He's not closing the deal.

Much as I cannot abide labour, I don't think, just for today, that I could put a tick next to Cameron.

8:00 am, November 25, 2009

 

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