A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Monday, April 05, 2010

A good poll to kick off the short campaign

ICM -

Con 37% (down 1)
Lab 33% (up 4)
LD 21% (down 2)

a) ICM are seen by other pollsters as the "gold standard" for accuracy
b) this percentage share would make Labour the largest party in the Commons by about a 25 seat margin
c) traditionally there's about a 5% swing back to the government during most UK General Election campaigns - it only need a 2% swing for Labour to be level with the Tories and back on the score we got in 2005

6 Comments:

Anonymous Arnold said...

Cheers, mate!

Let's send Cameron back to the obscurity from whence he came. Roll on 6th May! Labour to win!

7:12 am, April 06, 2010

 
Blogger CROWN said...

traditionally there is a swing away from Labour during a campaign. Political Betting had a properly sourced article on this http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/

7:13 am, April 06, 2010

 
Blogger E10 Rifle said...

I'm still pessimistic.

That Gene Hunt campaign poster is a disastrous misjudgment isn't it? People like Gene Hunt - it's idiotic to compare him to Cameron

10:43 am, April 06, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

no longer quoting YouGov...? The average poll lead for the Tories has been pretty consistent at 6-ish but risen slightly in the last week.

1:17 pm, April 06, 2010

 
Blogger Wilfred said...

Tories say they will stand up for society's dispossessed

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-say-they-will-stand-up-for-societys-dispossessed-470217.html

5:03 pm, April 06, 2010

 
Anonymous alderney luxury villas said...

I did a you gov survey today.

11:13 pm, April 06, 2010

 

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