PoliticsHome has done a useful table showing YouGov's aggregated regional swing data:
This gives a far more realistic picture of what's going on than the national poll numbers do, as it reveals different regions have moved towards the Tories at very different rates.
I've run the numbers against the Tory target seat list, thanks to my trusty copy of Rallings & Thrasher's "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" and found that they would produce (in descending order of Con to Lab swing):
West Midlands (9% swing): 18 gains from Lab, 1 from LD
North East (8.5% swing): 2 gains from Lab (nice swing but hardly any marginals up there)
North West (7.5% swing): 19 gains from Lab, 3 from LD
East Midlands (7.5% swing): 12 gains from Lab
Eastern (7.5% swing): 10 gains from Lab
Wales (7% swing): 4 gains from Lab, 1 from LD, 2 PC gains from Lab
Yorkshire (6.5% swing): 9 gains from Lab, 1 from LD
London (5% swing): 9 gains from Lab, 3 from LD
South East (5% swing): 5 gains from Lab, 4 from LD
Scotland (1% swing): No Tory gains, 1 SNP gain from Lab
South West (0.5% swing): No gains from Lab, 2 from LD
There wouldn't be any LD gains from Lab or Con.
The net impact is to leave the Tories about 10 seats short of an overall majority and Labour still with some southern outposts such as Dover, Luton N, both Norwichs, both Swindons, the Bristol cluster, both Plymouths, Exeter, South Dorset, Gloucester, Stroud, Reading West, Oxford East, Slough, both Southamptons and Brighton Pavilion; plus a big block of LD seats in the South West.